Things to know before Thursday Night Football: Week 8
(Photo by Rick Scuter/AP - via tampabay.com)
Here we are, 3 nights before Halloween, and we have what might be the most anticipated Thursday Night Football matchup of the year. Without question it is so far, even with some key players not in tonight, but we will get to that later. Tonight it's the Cardinals of Arizona who head to Green Bay to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
It’s the two best teams in the league if you’re going by record and the standings on the official NFL website, and the game tonight should reflect that. The Cardinals are the only remaining undefeated team in the league at 7-0, and besides a bizarre loss on opening weekend, the Packers have gone undefeated since then and sit at 6-1.
That being said, it may not be the task that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers thought they had when they saw this game at the start of the season, as they’re going to be without their WR1 and WR2 tonight. That is going to make for some interesting fantasy football implications, so let’s break it down.
Let's kick things off with the Quarterback breakdown, with more importantly Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers comes into tonight’s game without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard due to COVID, and the Packers are not activating MVS off of IR. You would think that would have drastic changes to what tonight’s box score might end up saying, and what his fantasy finish might be. Truth is, it might, but how much?
Rodgers is one of the most prolific, consistent, and all around best quarterbacks both in reality football and in fantasy football no matter the situation. Yes, losing Adams is huge, he’s the WR1 on the team, and quite possibly the entire league. He averages 10.4 targets a game, is always open, and is always a threat to house the ball after he catches it. You won’t get that with the others. Lazard hasn’t done much this season and he’s out anyways, and needless to say neither have the others. Cobb is the only other one that has really done much, and he’s considered the WR3 at best. But, if you have watched any Packers game ever the last 12 years, you know that Rodgers is great, and finds a way to score.
With all of that being said, you have to go in and not expect the same kind of production tonight. Not just because of missing Adams and Lazard, but Rodgers faces the Cardinals, who currently sit as the number 1 fantasy football defense. They have 19 sacks, 11 fumbles forced, 8 recovered, and 6 interceptions. I think Rodgers does enough to get by for fantasy football owners, but I don’t think it is entirely out of the question to bench him if you have a viable backup plan, and I never thought that would be a plausible statement, but it is tonight.
Kyler Murray. Quite possibly my favorite quarterback to watch on a weekly basis, not only because I have multiple shares of him in fantasy leagues, but because he’s fricking incredible to watch. Currently the QB3 in fantasy football, and he might have the best foursome of wide receivers in the league to throw to. In fact, I think he truly does. Besides that, he has legs that put linebackers and defensive backs on skates, and can extend a play an extra 10 seconds, then toss the ball 60 yards through the air while running to a wide open Hopkins. It happens more often than defenses want to admit. The match up tonight for Kyler is not a pushover, but it also isn’t one that’s going to kill his production. Green Bay is the D12 right now for fantasy football, and I see some positive areas in that secondary for Murray’s pass catchers. I think Murray puts on a show tonight to be honest, and I think he could go for over 100 on the ground. Start “Speedy Gonzalez'' in all formats with complete confidence.
I’m moving on to who will end up being the Packers’ WR1 tonight, Aaron Jones. Jones sits as the RB7 in PPR formats as of now, and tonight could end up launching him into the RB5 or RB4 position. Adams is out, we know that, so who do you think is going to take those 10 targets a game? I can tell you who it won’t be, it won’t be Equanimeous St. Brown or Amari Rodgers. They’ve done nothing on this team. Sure, Cobb is going to get his but I’ll get to that later. Enter Aaron Jones with his oversized shades on. He is set up for an absolute smash game. He is already seeing 5+ targets per game, and that could turn into 8 to 10 tonight. Then throw in the possibility of 15 carries with his cool 4.5 yard per carry average, and the 6 total touchdowns he has so far. Yeah, he should do well tonight.
James Conner worries me tonight, even though he has more touchdowns than his counterpart Chase Edmonds. Conner has 6, and Edmonds has 0. Why am I worried then? Well, I think this is going to be a shoot out, and Conner isn’t involved in the high flying aspects of Arizona’s offense. Put him on the goal line and it is a different story. I would much rather start Chase Edmonds on the sole fact that he is averaging 5 targets a game while Conner has had virtually 0. Edmonds produces through the passing game, and if Kyler is going to go toe for toe with Rodgers, they’re not going to be calling run plays. Besides, I fully expect 90% of the Cardinals rushing attack to come from Murray tonight extending plays. Both aren’t incredible plays tonight; but if I’m throwing one in my DFS lineup it is Edmonds, and maybe he breaks off a big catch and run to find the end zone for the first time this season.
Randall Cobb, the Packers WR3 might have the opportunity to be the Cobb of old tonight. As the only wide receiver on the team that is playing tonight that has some sort of history and connection with Rodgers, it’s not out of the question to think that there is a possibility Cobb has a solid night. Hell, he might end up with a stat line around 8 catches for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns. With Adams and Lazard out, and a 50.5 over under, they need to score and they can’t pass everything to Jones. Slide Cobb into your DFS lineup tonight, and if you’re in a bind in fantasy leagues, especially PPR and ½ PPR, Cobb is a solid WR3/Flex option for Week 8.
Out of the 4 wide receivers for the Cardinals tonight, it’s probably obvious who I’m going with as the smash play. DeAndre Hopkins, who is listed as questionable, is going to play, as long as he doesn’t have any pregame setbacks. The Packers secondary has been good, but there is a hole in it, and his name is Eric Stokes. This year Stokes faced 2 WR1’s on teams, and it was ugly. He took on McLaurin last week, and Scary Terry went 7 for 122 and a touchdown. His other matchup was Ja’Marr Chase, who went 6 for 159 a touchdown against him. Some pretty crappy numbers if you’re the defender. Start D-Hop, and we might finally get that huge game we have been waiting for this season.
I like Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore tonight too, just not as much. You know Kyler is going to spread the ball, and you can throw Ertz in this chat too. But, I think Murray is going to lean on his veteran receiver to get the job done tonight. I can see Kirk having the better game between him and Moore, I just think Kirk has the chance to get behind the defense once, and I think Moore is going to be used more in the bubble screen game. So it’s really who you think breaks free, and my dice are on Christian Kirk.
Well what about Robert Tonyan tonight? I’m not thrilled about it. Yeah, he will get more opportunities without question, but the Cardinals have the best defense against tight ends, so my expectations are slim to none.
Enjoy the game tonight, it will most likely be one of the most if not the most exciting Thursday night game we get this season!
See you Saturday for my full breakdown of Week 8 Fantasy Insight.
Cardinals 30, Packers 27
SKOL
- JD