NFL Round-up Week 7: Remember the Titans?, Ja’Marr Chase gets his flowers, Receiver Tiers, MVP Rankings
(Photo via The Tennessean-USA TODAY NETWORK)
Two weeks in a row, Vegas has absolutely demolished the public from a betting standpoint. Favorites have started to distance themselves from the rest of the pack, and we’ve started to sift out the frauds from the pack.
Questions still remain for a lot of teams, primarily in the AFC, which has more potential 6 and 7 seeds than contenders for the now exclusive, always elusive first-round bye. It’s a crowded room, and soon, we’ll have to start kicking teams out just as fast as we were bringing them into the conversation. The casual public has flat-out missed on so many expectations and predictions, and the national media are quickly becoming a cesspool of Chiefs apologists crying and whining on live television. I’ll try to hit some of the national buzz storylines and also throw in some rankings and predictions, because there’s nothing like the thrill of defending a hot take.
Are the Titans an AFC Contender? Plus, AFC playoff predictions
Short answer? Yes. Longer answer? Maybe.
The Titans are completely depleted in the secondary. Standout CB Kristian Fulton is on IR for another week, first-round pick Caleb Farley is sidelined for the season, and the Titans are down to Janoris Jenkins, Breon Borders, Chris Jackson, and Elijah Molden as their main cornerbacks. That was the case until they signed Greg Mabin from the Cardinals’ practice squad last week, and he proceeded to play 64 coverage snaps, leading all cornerbacks on the team.
Common wisdom would tell you that this is a recipe to give up 40 points against the NFL’s god-king poster-boy, Patrick Mahomes, and his elite duo of All-Pro targets in Kelce and Hill. The Titans gave up THREE (3) points (yes, points, not touchdowns) to the Chiefs yesterday, coming off of last week’s electric Monday night win over another media darling, the Buffalo Bills. Safe to say, the national media are having a collective meltdown over the Chiefs. I would be right there with them, except for the fact that I picked the Chiefs’ team under 12.5 wins on the Blanket Coverage Podcast. I didn’t think they’d be this bad, but they barely improved from last year, decided to start 2 rookies and a COVID-rookie on their O-Line, and got actively worse on defense. I can’t help but laugh as the media loses their shit over the demise of the Chiefs.
Yet, I can’t lie. It irks me that the media would rather kiss the ass of Jackson Mahomes’ brother than talk for one single minute about the Titans. I get it; this team lost to the Jets. In that game, Vrabel essentially decided to become a NBA coach and practice load management with all the stars not named Derrick Henry, and the offensive line was still working through injuries and chemistry/communication issues. The team’s injury list is still longer than Moby Dick, but I’m willing to excuse that loss after the last two weeks. AJ Brown has found his footing as a playmaker, Ryan Tannehill is firing balls into phone booths, and Derrick Henry still owns property in every endzone in the NFL.
OC Todd Downing is keeping the train rolling that Arthur Smith conducted to the tune of the NFL’s #1 EPA/play offense a season ago, and he’s getting better as a play caller. Even Arthur Smith never used motion and jet sweeps to the degree that Downing is, and it’s working! Making the defense think laterally before Derrick Henry runs vertically right into their face is creating room for the King to work against stacked boxes, which is creating room for the play action concepts downfield. The balanced, physical, overpowering nature of the Titans’ offense is coming to fruition.
Despite being down at least 3 cornerbacks, the Tennessee defense is slowly but surely improving on last years’ dismal performance, getting stops and turnovers at rates that would seem incomprehensible to anyone who watched the 2020 Titans. The rebuilt defensive line is 2nd in sacks and 2nd in total pressures. Ever wonder why the Titans put together a historically bad performance on 3rd down in 2020? They had the worst pass rush in the league, and opposing teams knew it. Vrabel and DC Shane Bowen now have high-level pieces in Bud Dupree and Denico Autry to play with. Not to mention that Harold Landry is second in the league in both sacks and total pressures in a contract year. The Titans’ front 7 is scary and only getting better by the week.
Talk about your golden-boy demigod Mahomes all you want, but don’t dismiss the Tennessee Titans in the process. This team should be firmly in the conversation to take the top seed in the AFC, and they still haven’t even played the Houston Texans.
My AFC Playoff Predictions:
Bills
Titans
Bengals
Chargers
Ravens
Raiders
Browns
Next 3 out:
Chiefs
Colts
Broncos
Ja’Marr Chase
Believe it or not, Joe Burrow’s sack rate is a tenth of a percentage point higher than it was last year. By watching last year’s Bengals, every sofa GM in the league thought the Bengals supremely squandered their opportunity to protect their QB by taking Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell. In the words of the great, not-yet-late Lee Corso: “Not so fast, my friend!” All this offense needed was a reliable, healthy receiver to get open so that Joe Burrow could stop having to make something out of nothing.
I’m actually laughing as I type this, because it’s that comical. Ja’Marr Chase set the rookie record for yards through 7 games yesterday… BY 130 YARDS. That’s correct. If Chase just had 70 yards yesterday, he still would have had the record. Instead, he put up 201 yards and 2 touchdowns against one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Marlon Humphrey.
This Bengals team, however, is nothing to laugh at. They’re a top 10 passing offense with a top 10 defense, and they’ve shown that they can compete with formidable opponents. Lamar Jackson just had his worst game of the season a week after I was ready to tout him as the MVP frontrunner...more on that in a bit. I fully expect the Bengals to be competing for a division title by the end of the year.
For now, I want to try to place Ja’Marr Chase among the league’s best and see where he stands. Instead of straight rankings, I’m going to rank these receivers in tiers. There are far too many receivers in the league to make a full list. Let’s go with Tier 1 through Tier 4 and see where Chase lands. These are in no particular order and are based on what I’ve seen this season (except for Michael Thomas and Julio Jones, who are both legends in their own respect).
Tier 1: Waffle Houses
These guys are always open.
Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins
Michael Thomas
Tyreek Hill
Stefon Diggs
Tier 2: Any Given Sunday
These guys are entirely capable of consistent, elite production, but are not quite the best in the league.
Mike Evans
Calvin Ridley
Amari Cooper
Keenan Allen
Terry McLauren
Cooper Kupp
Julio Jones
Justin Jefferson
AJ Brown
Tier 3: Young Guns and Inconsistent Stars
These guys could well be worthy of Tier 2, but I need to see just a little more personally, for some in a different offense.
CeeDee Lamb
Chris Godwin
Ja’marr Chase
DK Metcalf
Antonio Brown
Adam Thielen
Allen Robinson
Tier 4: Specialists and Consistent Producers
These guys could be or are excellent receivers in bad situations, or are stuck in crowded offenses where they don’t get an insane amount of volume.
Kenny Golladay
Chase Claypool
Brandon Cooks
Christian Kirk
Diontae Johnson
DJ Moore
Robert Woods
Cole Beasley
I definitely left some guys out that I just missed for some reason, but I think these tiers are reasonable. You could 100% argue that about half of Tier 3 belongs to Tier 2 and possibly vice versa. If it were a longer list, I would probably have them there, but that wasn’t the point of this exercise. The point is that Ja’marr Chase finds himself squarely in the midst of guys who are considered great to elite #1 receivers in the league, and Chase has deserved that designation through his first 7 games.
MVP Talk
Now that I’ve written 1300 words about 2 teams, let’s broaden the scope a bit and talk about the MVP race. Oftentimes, this is really a team award disguised as a player award. However, the top of the AFC is so muddled right now that there’s not a clear picture of an MVP through all the mess. Yes, I know this is a quarterback award, but we also haven’t seen a running back like Derrick Henry in years. Let me be the first to remind you of 2006 MVP LaDanian Tomlison, who broke the scrimmage TD record that season. If Henry were to break the all-time single-season record, he should be the MVP. Here are my MVP rankings so far.
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Derrick Henry
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Stafford
Tom Brady
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow
I think Kyler is the favorite right now based on numbers and team record, and you could make a case for any order of 3-8. We’ll see this Thursday when the Cardinals face off against #4 on my list, Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers.