JD's Fantasy Start/Sit Week One

Here we are, on the cusp of another Fantasy Football Season. The NFL is my favorite time of the year. Not only do I get to cheer on my hometown team, but I also partake in Fantasy Football Leagues and weekly DFS lineups.

I’ll do my best each week to bring you some Fantasy Football insight. I’ll touch on some “Must Starts,” “Sit ‘Em Down” players, and “Sleepers.” Which I’m hoping to be relevant for both Fantasy Football and DFS.

So, let’s dive into my week 1 of the NFL, and who I think you should be paying attention to.

Must Starts:

QB:

Kirk Cousins (MIN) @ CIN – Captain Kirk and company take on a depleted Cincinnati Bengals squad tomorrow, and could have an absolute field day. The Bengals ranked 22nd in the league last year for points allowed and are already going to be out starter Trae Waynes. Expect to see a high scoring game on Minnesota’s side, and some nice points from Kirk.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) @ HOU – The 2021 NFL 1st overall pick heads to Houston to take on the worst team in the NFL. With a ranking of 27th in the league for points allowed last year, and no upgrades brought in, I expect Lawrence to have a field day. There’s not much else to say. The Texans are awful, and the formula for streaming QB success this season may be whoever plays Houston each week.

Jalen Hurts (PHI) @ ATL – This is a game where you want Fantasy Football shares for players in the passing game. Both defenses aren’t great, but Atlanta’s takes the cake. Jalen Hurts may be set up for a QB1 weekend against the Falcons. They ranked 25th overall last year, and haven’t gotten better. Not only will Hurts be able to sling the ball, but his legs will provide some extra points. He’s averaged at least 60 yards on the ground per game, and I think you can hammer the over this week.

RB:

James Robinson (JAX) @ HOU – I’m going to stick with the Houston is bad theme. James Robinson is looking at a positive game script here, I think Jacksonville gets out in front early through the air, and then lets James Robinson do what he does best. He’s going to get a bunch of volume. He averaged 4.5y/car last season, expect him to hit that tomorrow. Not to mention he caught 49 balls in 2020, so you can assume he will have a few catches as well.

Kareem Hunt (CLE) @ KC – Now why wouldn’t I pick starter Nick Chubb? Let me tell you why. I’m not expecting Cleveland to do a heck of a lot on the ground tomorrow. Chubb will get his, but they’re going to need help through the air. It sounds like Odell Beckham Jr. is going to be a game time decision tomorrow, so that puts the Browns back a pass catcher, which is where Hunt comes in. Cleveland uses him much more in the passing game, and I expect him to get his through the air tomorrow against KC. If you’re in need of a FLEX option, or short in the RB position, I’d toss Hunt in there, but only in PPR.

Derrick Henry (TEN) VS ARI – The Cardinals were the 20th ranked defense in the league for 2020, and it is in absolute shambles right now. Injuries and the departure of Patrick Peterson aren’t going to help them this year. The camp reports are terrible for Arizona. You play Henry with absolute confidence this week. The Titans may have a field day, and this should be a high scoring affair. Don’t be surprised if Henry ends up either RB1 or RB2 this week after its all said and done.

WR:

Calvin Ridley (ATL) VS PHI – Same story for Calvin Ridley here that was for Jalen Hurts. Two very bad defenses going against some great offensive weapons. Julio is gone, Ridley is their guy. He might be my WR1 pick for the week, he’s going to get open, he’s going to catch the ball, and he’s fast with it in his hands after the fact. I’m fully expecting a shootout in Atlanta, and you want pieces of this match-up in your lineup and in DFS.

Adam Thielen (MIN) @ CIN – See Kirk Cousins above. No, but seriously, this should be Thielen and Jefferson. But I think Thielen has the better day solely on the fact Jefferson emerged as the number 1 on the team last year and they are going to pay more attention to him. Thielen is going to get open, it’s what he does, and he is a valuable Redzone threat people tend to forget about. Not to mention he finished as a top 10 WR in three of the last four seasons. I expect him to go for over 100 and a TD. “Can’t Stop This Thielen.”

Terry McLaurin (WAS) VS LAC – Oh baby, what a match-up and situation we have here. McLaurin goes up against the 30th ranked defense from a year ago, and the team just put his counterpart, Curtis Samuel, on the IR. I expect Fitzmagic to absolutely pepper “Scary Terry” with targets, since according to him they’re best friends now. It’s the perfect setup. Put him in your lineup and watch your score go up tomorrow. Start him with the most confidence possible.

TE:

Your must starts are your big three: Kelce, Kittle, Waller. You are starting them weekly, and we will touch on another TE in the Sleeper portion of the blog.

Sit ‘Em Down:

QB:

Daniel Jones (NYG) VS DEN – I’m not sure I have to say much here. Daniel Jones has been lackluster since entering the league. He has 22 interceptions and 29 fumbles in 2 years of playing in the NFL. THAT IS ASTOUNDINGLY BAD. Enter the 7th ranked defense from a year ago, Denver, and quite frankly, I think Daniel Jones is in big, big trouble this Sunday. Denver might end up the best defense in the league at the end of the season. Make Jones’ seat comfortable for him on your bench and choose someone else to play.

Derek Carr (LV) VS BAL – Baltimore is a sturdy defensive unit year in and year out, last year they ranked 9th overall in the league. I know Marcus Peters went down this week with a season ending injury, but it doesn’t matter. The whole squad is a force. Carr is going to struggle, I think the Raiders struggle in general this week, and I think the -4 line for Baltimore is laughable. Even though Carr has improved, he has been known to be pretty giving in the turnover game. I think he has a bad week against an elite defense, and I’m not sure he has the weapons to make it better for your fantasy team.

Jameis Winston (NO) VS GB – As a Viking fan it pains me to say that Green Bay has a good passing defense. But they do, Jaire Alexander is a menace, and he is going to give Winston fits tomorrow. With Michael Thomas sidelined, Winston is going to lean on pre-season sensation Marquez Callaway, who is going to be covered by Alexander. After that, there aren’t any options for Winston really, besides dumping it off to Kamara, which I expect to see often tomorrow. Leave the W eating Winston on your bench, because he will be eating an L this week.

*Timothy T. Ludwig & Christian Peterson/Getty Images*

RB:

The Entire Buffalo Backfield VS PIT – Pittsburgh has always had a pretty great rush defense, and defense in general. This week they take on the uncertainty of the Buffalo backfield. It’s gross honestly. I don’t trust Moss or Singletary, and I’ll give you three reasons why. First, both have been poor performers for fantasy football. Second, you have no clue who is going to touch the ball more. Lastly, they are a pass first team, and I would be too if I had Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mix those three reasons with a Pittsburgh defense, and you have a recipe for utter disaster. Ride the bench boys.

Joe Mixon (CIN) VS MIN – This may be hard to do, solely because of the amount of draft capital you probably spent on Mixon. But listen up and temper your expectations. Mixon’s offensive line is still in touch shape, the Vikings defense has greatly improved from last year, and Mixon has been boom or mainly bust as of late. If he catches a ton of dump-off passes he’s fine, but only in PPR. Just be sure to have a solid plan for the rest of your lineup this week, because I don’t see Mixon producing anything worth writing home about tomorrow.

D’Andre Swift (DET) VS SF – There is a couple things I want to point out here to help you temper those expectations for tomorrow. First off, Swift is apparently battling a groin injury which is less than ideal. He showed up on the injury report Wednesday, but it sounds like he will be ready for tomorrow. Just be aware, if he tweaks that during the game, I fully expect him to get pulled. Secondly, the Niners defense is dangerous. 4th in the league last year, ELITE. With a new head coach in Detroit, a new quarterback, and a possibly injured starting running back in Swift, it might not be a good decision to start him with confidence. Be aware, and adjust your lineup accordingly.

WR:

Marquez Callaway (NO) VS GB – Here we are again, as noted above for Jameis Winston. The Saints have a tough match-up tomorrow, and I don’t expect much out of the passing game, except for Kamara. The Packers secondary is good, and I don’t think a pre-season sensation facing Jaire Alexander is a viable option in your lineup this week, steer clear, and see how they use him the first couple weeks before you start him.

Tyler Lockett (SEA) @ IND – Tough defenses are the trend here. Indy has a great defense, and one that can defend the pass. 12th in the league last year, and with Seattle having two good WR’s I think only one has a good game. My pick is obviously Metcalf over Lockett. I think Lockett has a great season, and I think he was undervalued in drafts this year, but for week 1 I truly think Russ targets Metcalf a lot more and he will get his in what I expect to actually be a pretty good game.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) VS MIN – Not only do I think Chase struggles tomorrow against a greatly improved Viking defense, but I think people are going to be disappointed with his performance for the entirety of the season. Throw bad camp reports, some interesting quotes online (whether they hold true or not), and the fact he is struggling to get separation and catch the ball, I think that ends up as a sub par season. Bad O-Line, QB coming off a major injury, and a great defense all make it hard to start Chase this week.

Sleepers:

Raheem Mostert (SF) @ DET – Mostert is the starter, and yes, he is a sleeper due to the fact he can’t stay healthy, and he is on a team that runs the ball with multiple backs weekly. Doesn’t matter. Let me tell you why. Detroit stinks first of all, one of the worst rushing defenses in the league last year. POROUS. Now add in a player that who literally only needs 10 carries or less to go over 100 yards rushing and have multiple TD’s. He’s the fastest in the league to get to the edge, and if he can do that tomorrow in Detroit, it’s going to be spectacular for your fantasy team. START HIM.

Sam Darnold (CAR) VS NYJ – For me its the Adam Gase effect. It has literally been proven that once players left the Jets when he was coach that they did better. Gase is obviously gone, and the Jets will be better, but I don’t think we ever got to see Darnold’s potential. He now resides in Carolina, with better weapons, both on the ground and in the air, and he will get to showcase what he is really made of. I’m not expecting him to light up the NFL and put every team on notice. But I do expect him to be a perfectly fine streaming option on a weekly basis depending on the match-up. CMC, Robbie Anderson, D.J. Moore, and now Terrace Marshall are nice weapons to have in your arsenal. It’s going to be fun to see his outcome.

Russell Gage (ATL) VS PHI – I told you that you would want fantasy pieces in this game. Julio is gone, and the only wide receiver on the field is Calvin Ridley, who I’m expecting big things from this year. I know, they drafted Kyle Pitts (TE), who is going to be a stud most likely. But we still haven’t seen what he can do in the NFL. If defenses start to key on Ridley and Pitts, that leaves Gage wide open for production. Funny thing too is, Ridley and Gage worked great together last year in fantasy when they both started, and I don’t expect that to change. This game could be a track meet, and Gage could be a cheap option for you in DFS contests this week.

Anthony Firkser (TEN) VS ARI – Here is my tight end portion of this weeks fantasy outlook. Anthony Firkser, the forgotten son in Tennessee. Something makes me think that defenses are going to be looking at their wide receiver combo so much that Firkser is going to be open for business. Rightfully so, Jones and Brown are going to attract a lot of attention, and I’m not sure this week that the linebackers in Arizona are good enough to track down Firkser. He might be a great streaming Tight End a few times this season, or maybe a majority of it. If he can be a solid Redzone option for Tannehill week in and week out, he may permanently come off your leagues waiver wire.

Welcome back football, and check back next week for some fantasy insight on Week 2 of the NFL Season.

SKOL

- JD

Football, Fantasy SportsJames DanielsonSeptember 11, 2021Comment