Who do you draft at the 1.01 this year?
(Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy - Getty Images - via turfshowtimes.com)
Do you have Fantasy Football fever yet? I know I do. The NFL has only been on their off-season break for three months and I can tell you right now that is long enough. I miss setting a lineup. I miss cheering for players who aren’t on my home team (Skol!). I miss last-minute fantasy football wins thanks to Monday Night Football. It’s coming, but we need to wait four more short months.
Before I break down my positional rankings for the upcoming season I figured I’d dive into a topic that is or isn’t controversial depending on who you’re talking to. I want to start up a conversation on who you and I think is the 1.01 in fantasy football drafts for 2022. So far I’ve seen a few names thrown out there, the most popular being Jonathan Taylor. Rightfully so. He is set up for major success again in 2022 and had one of the best seasons for a running back in 2021. I’ve seen CMC’s name thrown out there. But I have someone else in mind. A player who I think has the right to be in the conversation as the 1.01 of 2022. That person being Cooper Kupp.
Kupp finished the 2021 season on a historical note. In fact, he finished with the best fantasy football season for a wide receiver in the history of fantasy football. Before I lay down some stats, as always my notes and stats will come out with ½ PPR scoring. 2021 found a total of 367 fantasy points for Kupp, 14 points ahead of Jonathan Taylor.
Kupp’s final stat line for the 2021 season is that of otherworldly. He played in all 17 games, which is almost ALWAYS NEVER going to happen for a running back in the NFL. Availability is just as important as anything in fantasy football. In those 17 games, he attracted 191 targets and caught 145 balls for 1.947 yards and 16 touchdowns. Otherworldly. Nuclear. Call it what you want. I call it an invitation that I desperately want him on my team again next season.
A few other nice stats to throw in there for Kupp is that he had a 76% catch percentage. The next best for receivers finishing the season as a WR1 was Davante Adams with 73%. Adams finished the season with 85 fewer points than Kupp and 22 less receptions. Along with catching percentage the points per game for Kupp was something that almost never happens. In last years 17 game season Kupp finished off averaging 21.6 points per game in fantasy football. I don’t care what the rest of your team or lineup looks like. If your WR1 is averaging 21.6 points a week then he’s an easy set and forget. Not only that, but you already have the advantage no matter what the other team looks like.
Next closest to Kupp in points last season for wide receivers was Deebo Samuel with 295.5. A whopping difference of 71.5 points. Now, I love Deebo going into this season based off of sheer talent. But if you’re going to ask me who I’d rather have between the two it’s Kupp bar none. Samuel’s point total is buffered due to the fact that he ran the ball a ton last year, and scored 8 rushing touchdowns along with it. He will not be doing that in 2022. He already came out and said he doesn’t want to be used as a running back. So expect to see a much smaller point total for Samuel at the end of 2022. Hence my decision on Kupp.
Let’s look at running backs because that is going to be the main argument here. Jonathan Taylor has every right to be considered the 1.01 in fantasy drafts this upcoming season. He is a bell cow, stud, going to run the ball down your throat type of back. Indy is going to use him. But I don’t see the amount of usage being completely the same this season. He scored 353.1 points last season, averaging 20.8 points per game. Carson Wentz was also his quarterback. Wentz struggled. He wasn’t god awful, but he was bad enough to where they had to lean on Taylor’s shoulders a bit. That changes this season. Matt Ryan steps behind center and is an immediate upgrade for the Colts. Now someone will argue well if he’s better won’t they be up more and so that will give Taylor more carries? Maybe. Maybe not. Even if that IS the case, is Taylor going to duplicate the 353.1 points in a season? Will he get hurt? Do the Colts make the playoffs and they rest Taylor a little more? It’s possible, they just need to go through the Titans. My point is, the durability of running backs is so much less efficient than that of wide receivers. Taylor is young, but all it takes is one bad hit, or too much work to lose him for a few games. Give me Kupp.
Here’s the deal. Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the league when he’s healthy. Guess what he hasn’t been the last two seasons. That’s right, healthy. McCaffrey has only started 10 games the last two seasons, and two of them ended in injury. I just don’t know if we will ever truly get back the CMC of 2019. In fact, I don’t think we ever will. The Panthers are going to be bad again this season, and you can’t lean on CMC. His body isn’t going to let them do it. They will not be leading in games, and that means fewer opportunities for McCaffrey. As mentioned, if he is healthy he is the best running back in the league, but I just don’t see it and am not willing to use the 1.01 on him.
I absolutely love Austin Ekeler. If I’m sitting in the 1.03 slot and Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor are gone, I’d pull the trigger on Ekeler. He finished last season as the RB2 overall with 308 points averaging 19.3 a game. That puts him behind JT, and 42 points ahead of Joe Mixon who finished as the RB3. Ekeler LOVES to catch the ball, and that’s what makes him so great. Not only that, but the mighty mouse himself gets those coveted goal-line touches. Ekeler had 94 targets last season, caught 70 of them, and scored 8 times after the catch. Magical for a running back. Now here’s my issue. The Chargers are going to be an elite team in the NFL with a bunch of solid weapons. Keenan Allen is still there. They also just gave “Big” Mike Williams the bag, so he is going to be more than involved. My worry is there won’t be enough mouths to feed that Ekeler can justify that 1.01 pick I tell you what I think though, and I’ll give you a sneak peek at a bold prediction of mine. I think that Ekeler finishes as the RB1 overall in 2022. But I would still take Kupp over him at the 1.01 position in a draft.
So why Cooper Kupp? Yeah, he had a season that is in the record books. But why him at 1.01? The Rams have a great thing going in L.A. McVay is an offensive-minded coach and is going to get his playmakers the ball. What about Cam Akers you ask? Let me say something. I like Akers as much as the next guy, but did you see him upon his return from injury in the playoffs? He was atrocious. He averaged less than 3 yards per carry. McVay is a one running back coach too. If Akers doesn’t have a good off-season and training camp, McVay is going to turn to Darrell Henderson or they’ll be trading for someone.
“But Allen Robinson is in town now.” Yeah, I know. I don’t care either. Robinson is either going to have a good season, or he is going to stink it up. We are going to find out if he was completely dogging it last year in Chicago, or if he did lose speed and ability. Even if he does have a good season it doesn’t change my opinion on Kupp who is the sure WR1 in L.A. In eight seasons Robinson has only eclipsed 7 or more touchdowns twice in his career. One of those times being his off-the-charts season in 2015 when he had 14 of them. I just don’t see it happening. Yeah, maybe he will be relevant again, and I’m totally fine with that. But you’re not going to take about 60% or more of Kupp’s 191 targets. There is a connection between Stafford and Kupp, and it’s obvious.
Does Van Jefferson take a step forward. I’ll make it quick. No. He’s a non-threat. There is nothing that Jefferson can do that will take anything away from Kupp. Do you think the Rams would have gone out and snagged Allen Robinson if they had faith in Jefferson? No.
Overall, I think people should take into consideration that Cooper Kupp deserves to be the pick at 1.01 and that it isn’t absurd or ridiculous. He has proved his worth, and he should continue to do so on one of the best offenses in the NFL. Give me Kupp at the top of the draft.
SKOL
- JD