What to know before Thursday Night Football: Week 13
(Photo by George Walker - Getty Images - via sportscasting.com)
Two weeks people! Two weeks before the Fantasy Football Playoffs are here for 2021! Honesty, it’s bittersweet. I can’t believe it’s already been 12 weeks of the NFL and we are beginning week 13. There’s been ups, downs, injuries, surprises, duds, you name it. The playoffs mean the end is near, and I hope you’re ready for your most meaningful matchups of the season.
As I mentioned last week, these last few weeks before the playoffs are critical. You need to be working the waivers for one thing. Looking ahead to your fantasy player’s playoff schedule and pick up free agents accordingly. Yeah, you have those star players based off of name association that haven’t done a thing for you all season, but you just have a hard time dropping them. I’m here for it, and I get it. But you have to understand that if there is a hot player on the waiver wire with a juicy fantasy schedule, it's probably the better move to pick him up and drop that dud of a stud. The beauty of that is you get a fresh player who is hitting his stride for the season, and you may have just dropped a waiver land mine that a possible playoff opponent could potentially pick up. That is a huge advantage for you.
Playoff strength of schedule is monstrous, especially if you’re constantly debating between a flex start. Look at your roster, look ahead to your playoff schedule for said player, and start accordingly. Countless times in my Fantasy Football quote unquote career has my playoff run come to a quick end because I overthought a match up and started the player who has been good, but the match up for the week is garbage. When I actually should’ve started that guy who’s been decent at best, but has a great match up and potential to score a lot of points. It happens. So be smart. Do your research. In the end though, as always, your first gut thought is without question the best decision. Overthinking leads to second guessing, and second guessing leads to mistakes.
So let’s get on with our Thursday Night breakdown for week 13 as the Dallas Cowboys, who get Amari Cooper back, head to the “Big Easy” to take on the now Taysom Hill led Saints.
Let’s start with Taysom Hill actually. The guy just signed a very unique and very large contract. Depending on what position he plays will be the outcome of his payout, and if I’m a betting man, I would imagine he will be the starting quarterback. He has shown a little bit of promise behind center chucking the ball, but the guy is a freaking weapon all around. You can line him up anywhere, and he will draw attention. Think utility player in baseball, but on a football field. In 2020 he started 4 games and went 3-1. He went 88 of 121 for 928 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He also added 457 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, which weren’t all in those 4 games of starting, but you get the point. Dallas is middle of the road against fantasy quarterbacks (18th) but Derek Carr and the Raiders showed that it can be done against them. HOWEVER, the Saints will be without many key pieces for Hill’s success tonight. Both of New Orleans' starting offensive tackles are indeed out, and so is Hill’s best weapon in Alvin Kamara. If the tackles wouldn’t have been ruled out, then I think Taysom would’ve been in auto start in a Super Flex situation. But now, he is going to be forced to run a lot more, they won’t have any protection in the pocket, and that doesn’t help in the passing stat line. He could still be fantasy relevant with his feet tonight, but I think your expectations need to be lowered big time. ($9,600 or $14,400 as Captain)
This brings me to Dak Prescott, who does regain a weapon tonight in Amari Cooper, but in limited fashion. Dak is a good quarterback, and a great fantasy player. Tonight he gets to face a New Orleans defense that is 27th overall against fantasy tossers. My thought is Dak will be passing the ball a lot tonight, because while New Orleans sucks defending the pass, they’re excellent at defending the run. Dak has been excellent, and besides the 2.64 points he had against KC a few weeks ago, he’s only had 2 other games under 20 points this season. He’s consistent, he can throw the ball, he’ll HAVE to throw the ball, and he has weapons. All making for what could be a good night for Prescott. ($11,800 or $17,700 as Captain)
I’ll lead the backfield this afternoon with Mark Ingram who yet again gets a start in the absence of Kamara. It won’t be an easy task tonight, not only because they’ll be without 2 starting offensive linemen, but Dallas is 5th overall against fantasy rushers. There is also the possibility of re-aggravated injury for Ingram who got a little banged up last week. He practiced in full all of this week, but you just can’t ignore the fact it may happen again. The last 2 games without Kamara, Ingram has put up 15.3 and 20.8 fantasy points, which is very respectable. The issue I see with those points? Both of them came against poor rushing defenses in Tennessee and Philly. I don’t love the idea of starting Ingram, Dallas is a solid rush defense, but you may not have a choice tonight. ($5,000 or $7,500 as Captain)
Zeke Elliott. What a game to decode for him. Going up against the number 1 defense to the run in fantasy, and in a game where Dak is going to have to throw. To put it lightly, I hate it. Zeke has struggled big time against tough rushing defenses with point totals of 5.9, 11.3, 12.6, 12.8, and one at 20.3. If I’m a betting man, and I have to have Zeke in my lineup, my expectations sit at about 8-10 points tonight, maybe 12. That goes for Pollard too who should be in this conversation. I repeat, Dak will have to throw tonight, they just won’t get it done on the ground, and I really don’t want to have to play either if not all the backs on both teams this evening. But, again, choices may be limited. (Elliott - $10,800 or $16,200 as Captain. Pollard - $7,800 or $11,700 as Captain)
If I’m picking a wide receiver in this game it is Tre’Quan Smith. I know he isn’t the leader on the team for wide receivers in New Orleans but he has had more targets than Callaway the last 3 games. Targets aren’t EVERYTHING, but it's damn hard to score fantasy points without them. To be honest I’m not in love with the idea of starting Smith or Callaway, but if Hill is going to put any kind of points on the board tonight, it will have to be through the air. Just be sure when you put these guys in your DFS lineup tonight (because they’re all bench-able in normal fantasy) that you don’t expect much out of them. ($5,600 or $8,400 as Captain)
Marquez Callaway is either a boom or bust player, and heavy on the bust. Yes, you’re right, he has 6 touchdowns on the season. But, in half of those games where he has a touchdown, he has 3 or less catches in the game, and less than 30 yards receiving. So even in his BOOM games, it’s not a full boom. As I stated earlier, I do like Smith better tonight, mainly due to the consistency the last 3 games. But, there is a new quarterback at the helm in Hill, and maybe that is enough for Callaway to get more targets. Maybe. ($6,400 or $9,600 as Captain)
CeeDee Lamb is one of my only hopes tonight for a major fantasy football game. Yeah, I know, Cooper is back, and I’ll get to him in a few, but just listen up. Lamb has been great so far, he’s the WR19 on the season, and faces a bad New Orleans passing defense. He is on the recovery road, but I think he will be fine. He sat last week, and I’m sure he got enough rest to make a difference in his return. If Dak and ‘Boys want to run up the score tonight against New Orleans, getting Lamb the ball is going to help. ($10,000 or $15,000 as Captain)
I’m here to tell you that I don’t care Amari Cooper is back tonight and that it is 100% fine to start Michael Gallup in all fantasy formats. If I’m wrong, I’ll gladly eat crow, but I have a strong feeling that I won’t be. Last week in Lamb and Cooper’s absence Gallup tallied 5 catches on 8 targets for 106 yards. A solid 15.6 points in PPR formats. Cooper is back, and I’ll explain my piece on him later, but I still think Gallup has the better game, and Dak will have to distribute the ball a bit more to others. New Orleans knows he will go for Lamb, but he can’t every play. Cooper should have a fine game, and is a solid flex option tonight against the 27th overall defense against pass catchers.
Amari Cooper. I’m benching him in the league that I’m a shareholder of his. He’s back, and in limited fashion according to Dallas. To me, that sounds like an absolute trap game for Fantasy owners. Limited might mean 70% of snaps, and it could mean 30%. What if that 70% means decoy usage only? That is a very solid possibility. Cooper had COVID, and I know he has been in the building for Dallas, but it has also been reported that he has still been experiencing post COVID symptoms and complications. I don’t know about you, but if I’m coughing and having some cardiovascular issues, I don’t want to be running full speed down the sideline playing one of the most physical sports out there. I think it’s safe to bench Cooper tonight. I think you have better options, and I’m willing to risk him riding the pine to start the other option. ($8,600 or $12,900 as Captain)
I actually really like the feeling of starting Dalton Schultz tonight. This is a bad secondary he is facing, Dallas won’t be as effective on the ground, and they will have a less star heavy pass catching group. Schultz has climbed the ranks, and is currently the TE5 on the year for fantasy football. Not to mention, he has 8 games of 6 or more targets, in 12 weeks. I think Dak is going to look Dalton’s way more often than not tonight, and even though New Orleans does get a tad tougher against tight ends, they’re bad overall against pass catchers. Fire him up. ($7,600 or $11,400 as Captain)
Good luck tonight everyone, and I hope these last 2 weeks earn you that coveted fantasy football spot if you haven’t gained one already.
Here’s to high floors and scores!
Dallas 28, New Orleans 10
SKOL
- JD