JD’s Fantasy Football Insight (Week 13)
Elijah Mitchell - Raj Mehta USA TODAY Sports via 49erswebzone.com
We are in week 13 of the NFL Season and final 2 weeks of the Fantasy Football regular season, and this is where you can make or break it for the playoffs in your league. As I prefaced in my Thursday Night breakdown, I can’t stress enough how important these last couple match ups are for your fantasy squad and your playoff ranking. You’re in this to win it, and you are going to want to make smart decisions these next 2 weeks to make sure you don’t screw yourself into missing the playoffs.
Whether you already have a locked in playoff berth, or you’re fighting to sneak in, you need to make sure to be starting the right players. You can’t get cute, you can’t overthink, and you can’t second guess. Those three things can lead to disaster for your team, and ultimately make or break if you are in the playoffs. The biggest pieces of advice I can give anyone who is fighting to get into the playoffs is to look at your players match ups, if they’re trending in the right direction the last few games, and to start your studs. Most importantly; trust your gut, and don’t second guess it. More often than not, that first initial thought to start said player is the right decision. The more you look at swapping him out, the more you analyze, the more you second guess, the higher the probability that you’re going to pivot in the wrong direction.
So. Trust that gut. Start your studs. Play the correct match ups.
Lets get this going, and get you and your team into the Fantasy Playoffs.
Must Starts
QB:
Kirk Cousins (MIN) @ DET – Captain Kirk has been slinging for the Vikings, and with the duo of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen it’s kind of hard to not do that right? Detroit’s passing defense isn’t bad, in fact it’s quite good, but I think the Vikings offense is far better, especially of late. Alexander Mattison is going to pound the rock, and he has great games against Detroit. That can open up the throwing lanes. Since he joined the Vikings in 2018, Cousins averages around 272 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Lions per game, and they meet twice a season. The first game this year was rough, but the Vikings offense looks much better than they did in the first meeting. I expect a good game from Cousins, and he’s far cheaper than the quarterbacks at the top of Draft Kings list. ($6,500 on DK)
Tom Brady (TB) @ ATL – What is there to say here? TB12 is crushing it this season, but you already knew that. Brady seems to be unstoppable both on the field and against Father Time. This week he takes on the Atlanta Falcons, who despite being a train wreck of a team this year, have stayed in games and won 5 of them. I think they can thank Patterson for that. Nevertheless, Brady is a must start, Atlanta is 25th against fantasy quarterbacks, and they aren’t going to have an answer for him and his weapons. It’s going to be all systems go in fantasy football for the Bucs’ players this week; and if you’re willing to pay up a bit in DFS, Brady is the perfect choice. ($7,200 on DK)
Carson Wentz (IND) @ HOU – I shouldn’t have to tell you why to start Wentz this week. But, I’ll humor you. Houston, we have a problem, a big one, and he is the guy that stands behind Carson Wentz. The Texans are going to have to do something to try to stop JT, and you know they won’t, fully. But if they’re so busy trying to slow down the best running back in football right now, that is going to open up that secondary for Wentz and his weapons. Wentz is JUST outside the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks this season, and the last 3 weeks haven’t been great I know, but something tells me that him and Michael Pittman might put on a show Sunday. If that ends up being the case, you could end up with a top 5 quarterback showing for Wentz, and some pretty happy wide receivers. Houston also is pretty middle of the road against fantasy quarterbacks, so if you look at that aspect of the analytical dissection for Wentz today, he could do some damage. ($6,100 on DK)
RB:
Elijah Mitchell (SF) @ SEA – If you want to talk about disappointing teams both offensively and defensively, than Seattle might be at the top of that list. Lets focus on the defense because Elijah Mitchell is going to stroll up that west coastline, straight into Lumen Field, and right down the Seattle defenses’ throat. They’re second to last against fantasy backs, and Mitchell is coming off a game where he had 27 carries for 133 yards and a touchdown. Then, throw in the fact he had 5 catches on 6 targets for 35 yards just for added measure. He is an absolute smash play today, and could end up being the RB1 for this week. Deebo Samuel is out, so you don’t have to worry about him stealing carries and touchdowns since Shanahan likes to throw him back there now. Start him. It will be a lot of fun to watch. ($6,000 on DK)
Alexander Mattison (MIN) @ DET – Dalvin Cook is hurt, again, and it’s time for Mattison to go back there and do his thing that he does well in Cook’s absence. These are Alexander Mattison’s numbers against Detroit when he starts against them (which is 2 times). In 2020 – 21 carries for 95 yards, 1 TD. 3 catches for 50 yards, 1 TD. October 2021 – 25 carries for 113 yards. 7 catches for 40 yards, 1 TD. Rock solid numbers. Detroit’s rush defense is real bad, so I expect more of the same from Mattison, the track record is there, and I just don’t see a situation where they can slow him down. If he doesn’t get into that end zone on the ground, there is still a great chance he can run one in after catching a pass from Kirk. ($7,600 on DK)
Jamaal Williams (DET) vs MIN – See Elijah Mitchell’s stats from his last game. Or any running back the Vikings have faced this season honestly. They’re awful, just as bad as Detroit honestly. It’s going to be a game of backup running backs, and both of them might just explode. Williams is a very capable backup, and the best part about it is he isn’t afraid to catch the ball and do something with it. The other positive news is the Lions suck at throwing the ball to their receivers, so that should mean a decent target share for Williams. Last week against Chicago Williams averaged 4.3 ypc on 15 carries, and also caught 5 passes. Look for those numbers to increase today. A nice bonus; he is absolutely dirt cheap in DFS. ($5,400 on DK)
WR:
Mike Evans/Chris Godwin (TB) @ ATL – You know the story here, TB12 and company are coming to wheel and deal in Atlanta today. Evans is the WR11 right now in PPR formats, with Godwin hot on his tail at the WR13. Its a beautiful thing for Fantasy owners because I’m not sure it matters which one you have. There is always a solid chance that both these guys find the end zone, and there is almost a 100% chance one of them does. With the 25th overall defense against fantasy pass catchers, just flip a coin to see which one to plug in your lineup. I like Godwin just a titch better than Evans today against the Falcons with the bomb play ability. But also doesn’t mean Godwin gets peppered on one drive for 6 catches and a touchdown. (Evans - $6,700, Godwin - $6,600 on DK)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) @ SEA – With stud offensive weapon Deebo Samuel out today, the handsome one Jimmy G will be looking to Aiyuk when he needs to toss the ball. I love Aiyuk in this match up, mainly because you know that SF is going to try to pound the ball, and control the clock the whole time with Elijah Mitchell. If you run all over the defense, and you know football well enough, that opens up play action and the passing lanes. Aiyuk should be the main beneficiary of Samuel’s absence because he is dangerous when he gets the ball in his hands. Look for him to step up today, and make plays when they need him to.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) @ HOU – I talked about this earlier with Carson Wentz above, I think him and Pittman have a game. I know the focus has been Jonathan Taylor, and the passing game has taken a back seat, but history shows that the Colts LOVE to throw on the Texans. If you take out the last 3 games where Taylor has dominated, Pittman has had a fine season. He is the WR17, and has scored 17-30 points in 5 games this season, 3 of those 5 being 20 or more. He has the ability to get open downfield and in the red zone, which is something you just have to love as a fantasy owner. Look for Houston to try to slow down the MVP candidate Taylor, and that should help to open things up for Wentz and Pittman to put up some points. ($5,700 on DK)
Sit 'Em Down - Russell Wilson - Steph Chambers Getty Images via thespun.com
Sit ‘Em Down
QB:
Russell Wilson (SEA) vs SF – With the exception of last game (19.48) points, Russ hasn’t been able to cook since his return from injury. The first two games back he scored 5.64, and 8.48 points. Truth is, there is no way his hand is 100% healed. He looks bad. I personally don’t want to start him until he proves to me that he is good to go. He is unable to get Metcalf the ball, and if he can’t do that the rest of the season, his numbers are going to be minimal. He hasn’t really took off running the ball either, that was a dynamic that made Russell great, and if you can’t run the ball, and you can’t throw the ball, it isn’t a good look for a starting quarterback.
Andy Dalton (CHI) vs ARI – Going up against the 2nd best defense is going to be an extremely tough task for Dalton. Especially since his WR1 is banged up, and even if he isn’t, Allen Robinson has been the biggest bust of the 2021 Fantasy Football season. Mooney is great, and he will be in his career, but this game isn’t it for him. Dalton has failed to score more than 16 points in all of his games this season, and the Cardinals are without a doubt not going to let him do it against them. Ride that pine, Andy.
Mike Glennon (NYG) @ MIA – With Daniel Jones sitting out this game on injury, in steps the long necked wonder Mike Glennon. Glennon hasn’t won a game in the NFL since 2017, and that will not change today. Miami’s defense has been decent, and with the dumpster fire this offense has been in 2021, there isn’t a glimmer of hope for Glennon. In the Dallas game this season he was 16/25 for 196, 1 TD, and 2 INT’s. Don’t even think about it, you’re far better off not giving Glennon the light of day.
RB:
Saquon Barkley (NYG) @ MIA – The Giants are trending in the wrong direction, while the Dolphins are trending in the right direction. Barkley has also been a huge disappointment and bust this season for fantasy football. The Giants just don’t have an identity, and as long as Daniel Jones and Mike Glennon are behind center, this team is going to suck. In 7 games, Barkley has not scored over 11 points more than 2 times. The Miami rush defense is good, they’ll make Glennon throw, which he will fail at. Until Barkley shows me he can break away for a big run, or the Giants get a new quarterback(s), I want nothing to do with Saquon.
David Montgomery (CHI) vs ARI – I’m not happy with the Chicago from a fantasy football perspective. With the weapons they have, they just haven’t been able to do a damn thing. As a Vikings fan I could care less, but this is a fantasy blog. I’m here to blame that lovely head coach Matt Nagy. He’s awful. You have weapons like Montgomery that aren’t being used properly. Yeah I know, he was hurt, but I don’t care. When healthy this season, he has 2 games over 10 points, 2! That’s unreal. This is a guy (Collinsworth voice) who is one of the best on the field and in the NFL. His ability to run through the line, catch passes, and break away is top notch. Yet, the Bears can’t figure it out this season. Now bring in the Cardinals defense, which is 6th best against runners, and you have a homemade recipe for an awful showing. Until the Bears figure their shit out, leave Montgomery on the bench.
Josh Jacobs/Kenyan Drake (LV) vs WAS – As bad as the WFT’s defense was to start the year, they have turned it around a bit in recent weeks. They’ve gotten better especially against the run, but still tend to struggle in the air. Jacobs is questionable, and possibly a game time decision, so if he can’t go in will step Kenyan Drake. I personally think it’s safe to look elsewhere, due to the fact that if they’re looking to win this game, Derek Carr is going to be throwing more often than not. Monitor Jacobs, if he isn’t able to go, Drake will, but that also means Jalen Richard and Petyon Barber will get some shares.
WR:
Mike Williams (LAC) @ CIN – Mike Williams started out this season as one of the hottest wideouts in the NFL, scoring 22+ points in the first 4 of 5 games. Talk about making a fantasy owner excited. Well, since then it has been a drastic fall to the bottom. Since week 5, Williams has only scored 20 points 1 time, and if he isn’t scoring 20, its 7 or less points. Ouch. Keenan Allen has re-emerged as the WR1 in LA, and he will continue to do so I think. Cincy is also a solid defense all around, so I think it is safe to look in a different direction if able for Williams. He is a WR3 at best this week.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) vs ARI – I told you I was disappointed with the Bears fantasy value this season. Mooney is my guy too, I love the potential and the future outlook for fantasy football, but that’s only if the Bears figure it out. With Dalton at the helm, one of the best, if not the best defense overall in the NFL, and the Bears lack of creativity, this is a game I don’t want any Bears players in. Mooney may get a deep shot downfield, but the Cards have been able to lock those up pretty good. Unless Mooney somehow miraculously finds the end zone, it’ll be a disaster.
Elijah Moore (NYJ) vs PHI – Man, Zach Wilson sucks huh. He definitely has zero connection with Moore, which is unfortunate because Moore had really turned it on in recent weeks. Those weeks though, were when Zach Wilson wasn’t playing. Moore was scoring 15+ a week, and when Wilson came back last week, that shot back down to 9. It’s kind of all doom and gloom for the Jets right now, and as long as Zach Wilson is under center this rookie season, I am 100% fine looking elsewhere.
Sleepers
Derek Carr (LV) vs WAS – The WFT is getting much better at defending the run, hence the entire Vegas backfield landing on my “Sit ‘Em Down” list. However, the passing defense is still swiss cheese. There is an opportunity today for Carr to put up some solid numbers against the worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks this year. Carr has quietly snuck up to becoming the QB14 on the year, and has had 5 games of scoring 21 points or more. I don’t think Waller being out really has an effect on it either, because they have a backup TE who I will be talking about later. ($6,000 on DK)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs BAL – “Big Ben” has been less than fantastic this season, in fact, it might be the worst fantasy football season of his career. Which is unreal to think with weapons like Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Najee Harris. They just haven’t been the same Steelers we are used to seeing, but this week I think they come back to form. Baltimore is favored in this, and in fact, it’s the first time ever the Ravens have been favored in Pittsburgh against Ben. That being said, the Ravens are addicted to giving up monster plays through the air, it happens every game. With that, I think there could be an opportunity for Ben to look some what like his old self. If the Ravens are going to try to stop something, it’s Najee, and Roethlisberger will have to throw the ball. He’s also a great option in DFS if you want a dirt cheap quarterback. ($5,000 on DK)
Devonta Freeman (BAL) @ PIT – Lets get real here, the Baltimore backfield is a far cry from what we expected it to be. Both with the personnel, and the production, or lack there of. But, Freeman has a chance to throw up some points this week in Pittsburgh. The Steelers rushing defense is nothing to what we are used to, in fact they’re 21st against fantasy backs. Against bad rushing defenses this season, Freeman has scored a touchdown, he faces another bad one today, and I think there is a chance he pushes through the line to fall in the end zone. ($5,500 on DK)
Myles Gaskin (MIA) vs NYG – For once I’d like to get it right with this guy. This week is it, I can feel it. Gaskin finally broke his every other good week trend the last game against a tough Carolina rushing defense. This week, he gets a near dead last New York Giants rushing defense against fantasy backs. I think Miami mops the floor with New York, I really do. Which is a great script for a running back, and Gaskin could be in store for a monster game ($5,800 on DK)
Van Jefferson (LAR) vs JAX – With OBJ questionable (he’ll play), and Woods out for the season, it can’t all be Cooper Kupp. I expect OBJ to go, but I don’t think he will be 100% and won’t take enough snaps and looks away from Jefferson to be unrelevant. Jefferson is a sure fire deep threat, and with Jacksonville’s 20th ranked defense, you could find a way worse option to throw in your lineup, whether it’s your fantasy league or DFS. ($5,300 on DK)
A.J. Green (ARI) @ CHI – A.J. Green has had his moments this season for fantasy football, which I’m not sure anyone saw coming. But with the absence of Hopkins Green has been seeing at least 80% of snaps. He is a threat down in the red zone for the sheer fact that he is still able to out jump and post up corner backs. I think there is a chance you could see Green catch a touchdown today in Chicago, and he will be a find WR3 or Flex option. ($5,000 on DK)
Foster Moreau (LV) vs WAS – Darren Waller goes down and Foster Moreau immediately steps into his role. Moreau is a great tight end, but it’s hard to show what you got when you have a player like Waller ahead of you. I really like Carr today, and there has to be another option for him to throw to besides Hunter Renfrow. Last time Waller missed and Moreau started he had this stat line – 6 catches on 6 targets, for 60 yards and a touchdown. Fire. Him. Up. ($2,700 on DK)
Sleepers - Foster Moreau - Levi Damien USA TODAY Sports via usatoday.com
Unknown Dart Throws
Sony Michel (LAR) vs JAX – I honestly don’t care if Henderson plays or not, I’m still firing up Michel because the match up is too good. I don’t think Henderson goes, and if he does, I think he is pretty limited. Michel has the makings here to be a top 10-15 running back today due to the Jaguars awful rush defense, and his ability to catch the ball. ($4,300 on DK)
Josh Reynolds (DET) vs MIN – The Lions pass catchers have been few and far between as far as consistency goes, but this week I really like Reynolds to hit big against my Vikings. He has a natural connection with Goff, who he played with in L.A., and is without a doubt the most talent the Lions have for pass catchers. With a bad Vikings defense, there is a very good chance Reynolds finds a broken coverage and houses one. ($3,400 on DK)
T.Y. Hilton (IND) @ HOU – If you know anything about T.Y. Hilton in his career, its that he absolutely OWNS the Texans. The guy doesn’t have a bad game against them, he never has. He has played 19 games against Houston, and in those 19 games he has over 1,800 yards and 11 touchdowns. Not to mention he has surpassed 100 yards in a game against them 7 times, and over 200 once. It’s a beautiful thing. Chase the history here. ($4,400 on DK)
Jauan Jennings (SF) @ SEA – Someone else has to step up in the absence of Deebo Samuel right? Well, in steps Jennings to the WR2 today. Jennings found the end zone last week against the Vikings and Deebo hadn’t left to injury yet. He only had 2 catches, but should see an uptick today. As long as the Niners don’t completely blow out the Seahawks and their defense, Jauan will have an opportunity to do something. ($3,100 on DK)
James O’Shaughnessy (JAX) @ LAR – The Jaguars’ new toy Dan Arnold went down to injury, and those looks have to go to someone. It seems like Lawrence isn’t targeting those wide receivers at all, so that means they should funnel to O’Shaughnessy. Last week he had 3 catches for 29 yards, but I think he has a solid chance to catch 5-7 balls today. ($2,600 on DK)
Good luck this week, and I hope you catch yourself at the end of the day celebrating by making the playoffs or getting 1 win closer to doing so.
There should be some fun action today, so nestle in with apps and drinks, and cheer on your Fantasy squad.
Here’s to high floors and scores!
SKOL
- JD