Week 3 NFL Round-up: Hot Seat Hot Takes, Way-Too-Early Coach of the Year list, Does the AFC have a favorite?
Photo via Kamil Krzaczynski/Associated Press
Week 3 came and went, and for the most part I think we can definitively start to compile lists, rankings, and such. Last time I blogged about the NFL, I simply gave my instant reaction from each game, but I’ll switch up the format every so often to keep things interesting.
The third week of the season is always fun, because it feels like you have a pretty decent idea of what to expect from teams. The Texans are bad. The Rams are good. These are the deep analytical takes that you can glean from watching three games’ worth of football.
With this in mind, I’ll share a piece of information that a Super Bowl-winning tight end told me last year during a late-season game, one in which a previously undefeated Steelers team struggled against the Buffalo Bills in primetime. NFL teams, more often than not, take the season in quarters. This means that, in the traditional 16 game season, teams will reevaluate themselves, their schemes, and their gameplans after each four weeks.
This explains how the 0-4 Texans could come back a few years ago to make the playoffs. It also explains why none of this really matters, at least not yet. The Rams, who look unstoppable so far, could just as easily drop the next three games as they have won the last three. It’s just a matter of coaches figuring out how to scheme against each team, and the more film coaches have on a given team in a given year, the more likely a good coach is to figure out how to stop that team. Good coaches have great game plans going into the season. The best coaches figure out how to adapt that game plan, adjusting to the other teams’ schemes to stop it.
Here I’ll share a few sporadic thoughts on coaches, as well as an AFC musing.
Let’s start negative so we can end positive:
Whose seat is the hottest?
If Matt Nagy isn’t feeling the heat yet, he will soon. The Bears are a lost cause and Justin Fields’ career will be wasted if they continue at this rate. Fields has attempted just THREE (3) first quarter passes all season. Clearly, Nagy doesn’t think he’s ready, but I would argue that the game plan didn’t play to Fields’ strengths. There was no pocket movement, hardly any QB run game, and the result was 47 total yards of offense.
Remember what I said earlier about coaches adapting? Nagy seems inept to adapt to the strengths of his team, insisting on running the ball into the dirt for the first part of the game until his team inevitably ends up playing from behind. Additionally, for as much as the Bears love to run the ball, Justin Fields has only attempted 2 play action passes and only three RPO passes. The Browns were able to tee off on Fields with a lethal pass rush led by Myles Garrett, who set the team’s single-game record with 4.5 sacks. Fields was easily the worst of the 5 first-round QBs under pressure in college. The Browns sacked him 9 times total. Fields was the most athletic QB in his class, but hasn’t found the pocket presence to be a dropback NFL passer.
We know that rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle with holding onto the football because they’re getting used to reading an NFL defense. The best rookie quarterbacks are often the ones who can buy time to throw behind a good offensive line or good schemes that do so for them, like ones that incorporate lots of play action and RPOs. Fields couldn’t get the ball past 10 yards downfield because Matt Nagy’s scheme sucks, the offensive line is just as poor, and he barely had any chances to make a play. All in all - the rookies look bad, but Nagy is ruining everything good about Justin Fields. Fire him into Lake Michigan.
Urban Meyer’s seat has cooled off a little bit because they were up on Arizona at half via an electric kick-six. I still think he leaves for USC at the end of the year.
The Seattle Seahawks haven’t played a normal football game in 5 years. I don’t think Pete Carroll’s seat is hot, but it could be getting lukewarm. This team has had the talent to succeed for years, and yet they find themselves in a 1-2 hole before even playing a divisional game in the toughest division in football. If they miss the playoffs this year, it might be time to ask about Carroll’s expiration date in Seattle.
Dan Campbell has his team fired up in his first year, despite the 0-3 start. If this team can build an actual talent base, I feel good about the future of his tenure in Detroit. I can’t say the same about Robert Saleh, but Zach Wilson is certainly struggling mightily in part due to the league’s worst offensive line. He’ll make it past this year for the same reason as Campbell: his team is devoid of talent, which is not his fault in year one.
I think Nagy is the only coach with a truly hot seat right now, so it doesn’t deserve a full ranking. Mike Zimmer may be worth adding as well, but they beat a half-decent Seahawks team and went down to the wire against the Cardinals and Bengals.
Early Coach of the Year Candidates
Two words: VIC. FANGIO. Sure, they’ve beaten the Giants, Jets, and Jags, but they’ve absolutely taken care of business in all of those games. Playing two rookie QBs that haven’t looked great isn’t necessarily indicative, but the way in which they’ve attacked and feasted on these QBs tells me everything I need to know about Vic Fangio’s defensive coaching.
The Broncos’ D is top-10 in nearly every defensive statistic, forcing more turnovers than they’ve allowed touchdowns. Their passing defense alone has contributed a league-high 23.76 expected points added. If Teddy Bridgewater can stay consistent and the running backs continue to churn out yardage, this defense is going to cause problems in a division where offense abounds. They could, however, see a big regression as they begin to face better QBs, much like the Washington Football Team
I’m not sure whether to put Sean McVay on the list or not, but I’m going to write about the Rams here. Matt Stafford has exceeded expectations in McVay’s offense, dialing up explosive plays and unlocking Cooper Kupp as the NFL’s top slot man. Against the Bucs, he exposed yet again a huge weakness for the defending champs in their secondary. Even without a great run game to speak of, the Rams are absolutely as legit as we thought they might be. Could this be a preview of the NFC title game?
I’ve failed to mention the two probable favorites for the award, though. Brandon Staley is my current COTY through three games. The Chargers have been 4th quarter, single-score game heartbreakers for years, ever since the days of Phillip Rivers. The Chargers have won TWO close, one-score games in the first three weeks, the latest against the Chiefs, who are running out of Mahomes magic, but are still threats to score any time their offense takes the field. Justin Herbet is as good as advertised once again, and the Chargers are on the march to the playoffs if they keep this up. This has been a hard 180 from the days of Anthony Lynn, who is a terrific person and also a terrible in-game decision-maker. Coaching wins and loses close games as much as the players do (see: Kyle Shanahan in Super Bowls). I don’t think it should go unnoticed how much of a shift it’s been to see the Chargers finally start to pull these games out with a roster that absolutely has the talent to do so.
It pains me to say this, but the Raiders made me eat my words. I thought this team would be a firm last place in a pretty good division. Through three games, they’re tied for first, and a lot of the credit should go to John Gruden. There had been multiple questionable front office decisions (getting rid of Trent Brown, drafting Alex Leatherwood 17th overall), but somehow Gruden has managed to make Derek Carr into a league-leading quarterback by piecing together an offense that has been dangerous in multiple facets of the game. Darren Waller is a reliable option, demanding Kelce/Kittle attention from defenses. Waller opens up the field for Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edrawds, who are both starting to hit their stride as this offense continues to become more and more explosive and efficient. Is this an AFC Championship team? Probably not. But it does beg the question of who is an AFC Championship team this year?
Is there a clear AFC Championship contender this year?
The Chiefs are still in this category because they can rattle off 10 straight wins at any given stretch. However, they face a tough schedule down the stretch, and the defense looks absolutely averse to stopping anyone. It’s the same type of problem we saw with the Tennessee Titans last year.
They cannot stop anyone in the run game, shown by giving up a league-high 30 1st downs on the ground. That’s 10 rushing 1st downs per game, not even mentioning an extremely modest number through the air, which is often irrelevant because teams are running all over them. The D-Line can’t get off blocks in either facet of the game, and it’s killing them. It might be time to make a trade to improve the defensive front and move Chris Jones back to DT (he’s been playing DE this year).
Furthermore, without a defense to speak of, Mahomes is having to play high-pressure, mistake-free football, which doesn’t line up with his gunslinger play-style. If Mahomes can be free to take big shots downfield and launch risky, wacky throws that only he can produce, he needs a defense that can bail him out when it doesn’t pay off. This could be a down year for the Chiefs if they don’t fix the defense immediately.
The Ravens seemed to move the ball at will against the aforementioned Chiefs defense, but had a really hard time doing so against the lowly kneecap-biters from Detroit. They needed a miracle 66-yarder from Justin Tucker to pull this one out, one that they actually shouldn’t have had if the CBS play clock was correct. Lamar Jackson is great when the threat to run is there, but with a banged-up team around him, I wonder just how much effect he can have if teams with good front-7s are unafraid of their receivers getting open, or of the Ty’son Williams-Latavius Murray-Devonte Freeman trio. Lamar will truly need to carry this team if they are to make the AFC Championship.
The Bills are probably the favorite at the moment. I’m interested to see them against a good quarterback, because so far they’ve played zombie Big Ben, the Tua/Brissett checkdown Charlie offense, and Taylor “have a” Heineke. The Washington defense, believe it or not, is a bottom-5 unit this year, and looked the part against the Bills’ offense, which finally came alive to the tune of 481 total yards and 4 TDs through the air for Josh Allen. The Bills are 2-1 with a weird game against Pittsburgh in Week 1 as their only loss. They’ve looked very strong against two inferior opponents, but we’ll start to see them against real talent after next week’s Texans affair. They have to go to Kansas City and Tennessee in back-to-back away games in Primetime. They should be favored in both of these games, and will need to at least split the two to earn my full confidence.
The Browns just continue to dominate teams up front. Both lines look really solid, and it wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever if this team found itself one game away from a Super Bowl. Their roster probably boasts the most talent top-to-bottom in the entire league, and they can attack every facet of the game with aggression because of it. Myles Garrett is a monster. The two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are terrifying. Even though they’re near the bottom of the league in passing attempts, Baker Mayfield is hitting 73% of his passes on the year. That number is flat-out exceptional, and it means they’re being smart in picking Baker’s spots and letting him feed off play action to open things up. I’ll be interested to see if anyone can shut down this rushing attack to make Mayfield beat them.
The Tennessee Titans have some serious issues in the locker room. Mike Vrabel, in true Belichick form, was almost fuming in the post-game after beating a division rival. Julio Jones got benched at the end of the game, and AJ Brown went down with a hamstring. Suddenly, the Titans were back to leaning on the back-to-back rushing king, Derrick Henry, who carried them to a victory despite two Ryan Tannehill picks. The defense didn’t look horrendous for once, and that’s a positive sign. They’ll probably win the division, but with the current state of the locker room and injury report, this team is hopeless to make another AFC Championship.
That’s all for this week’s observations. Remember, if I didn’t write about your team, I’m extremely biased and I hate them with a burning passion.
In all seriousness, if you’d like to hear me talk about your team, tune into the Blanket Coverage Podcast on Wednesday nights for our NFL Round-up, and follow us on IG @blanketcoveragepodcast and twitter @blanketcovpod.