JD's Fantasy Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Week 3
(Photo by Brace Hemmelgram / USA Today Sports via247sports)
What a wild and high flying week 2 in the NFL. So far it’s easy to say that the 2021 NFL Season hasn’t disappointed, and I’m not sure we have a week this season that will. There is just an immense amount of talent around the league, and these weeks are only going to get better and more competitive.
After a 182 yard and 3 touchdown performance, Derrick Henry showed you why you can’t give up on the Yeti, he’s an animal, and he always will be. Kyler Murray didn’t disappoint, Cooper Kupp keeps catching the ball, and Travis Kelce just continues to show you why he needs to be taken in the 1st round of Fantasy Football drafts year after year.
We got some names to break down, and some fantasy football games to win, so lets get to it.
Must Starts:
QB:
Matthew Stafford (LAR) VS TB – There was a ton of optimism going into this season in Los Angeles when Stafford came to town, and not even in LA alone, but in the entire Fantasy Football community. Could Stafford finally get back to his gun slinging self and not get some kind of injury on a weekly basis? The answer is yes. Stafford is back, and he has the weapons going forward to really be fantasy relevant for the entire season. After 2 games Stafford is the QB11, with 599 yards 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. This week he takes on Tampa, who is the 3rd most giving defense in the league for passers. Look for Stafford to continue his new reign of domination on Sunday in what should be an absolute shoot out.
Jalen Hurts (PHI) @ DAL – Jalen Hurts doesn’t have the numbers that Matthew Stafford or Tom Brady might have at the moment, but he has something else, running capability. Hurts averaged 60 yards per game on the ground going into this season, and after 2 games this season he is averaging 72 yards per game. He also has 1 rushing touchdown already. I think there is a solid chance Hurts goes off against a Dallas defense that has allowed 692 yards through the air so far, 2nd worst in the league. I’d chalk him up for a solid game through the air, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 100 yards on the ground and a TD on Monday night.
(USA Today Sports Images via nbcsports)
Josh Allen (BUF) VS WAS – Let’s be honest here, after 2 games this season, Josh Allen has under performed on what your expectations were. As of now he is averaging 16.93 fantasy points per game, and last year he only had 4 games under that average number. This week he will have a good opportunity to show you why you drafted him as your QB1. This week he takes on the Washington Football Team, who has allowed the 9th most yards through the air to opposing quarterbacks. This is going to be Washington’s hardest task yet as far as opposing quarterbacks go, previously facing Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones. Allen is a much more reliable option than those two have been. Some might argue Herbert, but he’s one year removed from a stellar rookie season. If Daniel Jones can rip off big runs against them, I see Allen doing more or less of the same, and actually adding points through the air as well.
RB:
Ty’Son Williams (BAL) @ DET – You guys tuned into the game this last Monday night right? You all saw what Aaron Jones did to the Lions right? If you didn’t I’ll be quick. He crushed it, and won people Fantasy games last week. He was in my “Must Starts” category, and this week it’s Ty’Son’s turn. After surrendering 67 yards and a TD on the ground, and 6 catches for 48 yards and 3 TD’s receiving to Jones, its hard not to think it’ll be similar this week. Ty’Son hasn’t proved much through the air yet, only catching 5 balls for 45 yards, but that could change with a game plan this week. I don’t see why the Ravens wouldn’t try an attack like the Packers did last week, it worked good, too good. Williams might just launch up in the running back rankings after this week. Start Williams with confidence, and hope that Latavius Murray doesn’t squawk any goal line TD’s.
Austin Ekeler (LAC) @ KC – The PPR machine Austin Ekeler and the Los Angeles Chargers head to Kansas City this weekend, and he should be an absolute smash start. KC has the worst rushing defense in the league, and I know Ekeler isn’t known for his rushing, but there is definitely going to be a plan to get him the ball by any means possible come Sunday. Ekeler right now has 24 rushes for 111 yards and a TD, with a 4.6 ypc average. Look for that to boost after this weekend, and don’t be surprised to see a multi touchdown game from him through the air and on the ground.
Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison (MIN) VS SEA – So if you haven’t been following along, Dalvin Cook is currently on the injury report as “Questionable” for Sunday, and most likely a game time decision. I personally don’t think he plays, and if he does, I think they limit his work. So this is mostly about Mattison. Cook is a must start if he goes, even if limited, he will still do enough damage against the 3rd worst rushing defense in the league. If not, you start Mattison. Last year, Cook went down against the Seahawks in the first half of the game. What did Mattison do? He came in and ran for 112 yards on 20 carries. The point is, it doesn’t matter who carries the rock, because they’ll both produce regardless.
WR:
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) @ MIN – It has been the Tyler Lockett show the first two weeks of the season, and D.K. Metcalf shareholders have been wondering when their turn is coming. Well, I fully believe it is this Sunday afternoon against the Vikings. The Vikings are not good on defense against the passing game, especially the long ball. In fact, they’re 5th worst in the league. Yeah I know, Lockett is on fire, and he could easily have a great game too. But why not both? I don’t see any Vikings corners or safeties sizing up to Metcalf, and it could be a long afternoon for that secondary.
Sterling Shepard (NYG) VS ATL – The New York Giants host the Falcons this Sunday, and if there is one pass catcher you definitely need to be starting for them its without question Sterling Shepard. The guy has been Daniel Jones’ favorite target so far this season and that is only going to continue, especially with Kenny Golladay’s status in jeopardy for the game. Not to mention tight end Evan Engram is also questionable for Sunday. Shepard is third in the league with 16 receptions so far in 2021, and he was in the lead until Thursday’s game, then both Brandin Cooks and D.J. Moore passed him. With Atlanta’s middle of the road passing defense, I see a very positive outcome for Shepard this week, and if Golladay and Engram are both out, he will be peppered with targets.
Stefon Diggs (BUF) VS WAS – See Josh Allen above. No it doesn’t end there that quickly. I touched earlier how underwhelming the Washington defense has been compared to expectations, and I believe that continues this week. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs could go out there and light up the scoreboard. Diggs is sitting at 13 catches for 129 yards and 1 TD so far this season, and I think both of those numbers jump up the ladder by a healthy margin after this game. Diggs is talented, there’s no question, he’s one of the best route runners in the game, and I think he makes the WFT secondary look silly on Sunday. Bonus tidbit; don’t be surprised if Emmanuel Sanders has a good game too, and might be worth a dart throw in DFS cash games this weekend. Just a precursor to something later in the blog.
TE:
Rob Gronkowski (TB) @ LAR – How is it possible that Gronk is still this damn good at football? It’s simple really; he’s uber talented, and Tom Brady is still his quarterback. Gronk goes into week 3 with 12 catchers for 129 yards and 4 touchdowns. But the biggest stat here, all of that on 13 targets! He has only missed one opportunity to catch the ball, and look what he’s done with it. That success is going to continue, and it may very well be an all season affair. This Sunday won’t be any different, especially with Antonio Brown on the COVID Reserve List. Expect a rock solid game from Gronk, and probably Brady too.
Sit ‘Em Down:
QB:
Jameis Winston (NO) @ NE – Alright, so everyone freaked out over Jameis’ first game of the season, and I hate to say it but I think you all got fooled. I’ve never been a Jameis truther, and sure, he had a season where he threw for 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions, but what was the second part of that stat, that’s right, 30 interceptions. For his career he has 126 touchdowns and 90 interceptions. That’s absurd, and not someone I want in my starting lineup against the 5th best passing defense in the league. I say steer clear, and with very limited and unwarranted weapons minus Kamara, it should be an easy decision to let Winston ride the bench.
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) @ BUF – So here’s the deal, Heinicke looked pretty decent last week in his debut. He was serviceable, start-able, and performed well. He didn’t blow you away, but you could’ve done far worse than him. This week, not so much I’m afraid. He goes up against Buffalo, who has the best defense in the league against quarterbacks. So far they’ve only allowed a total of 322 yards and 1 touchdown. That doesn’t bode well for Heinicke who has a limited amount of experience under his belt. It’s easy, pick someone else.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) VS CIN – This one kind of hurts honestly, I’ve always liked Big Ben. He was a fantasy stud in his early years. But I think he is on his last leg as a quarterback in the NFL. He has looked terrible the first two weeks of the season. He has no power, the deep ball isn’t there anymore, and he has lost his mobility. Right now, Big Ben has 483 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He takes on a Bengals defense this Sunday who have looked like they’ve improved a bit over the off season. They sit 8th in the league right now against opposing quarterbacks, and with Dionte Johnson out of the game, it may not be pretty.
RB:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) VS LAC – To start off, I’m going to tell you that CEH has a favorable match-up, and that the Chargers have the 4th worst rushing defense in the league. I know, not something you put in a “Sit ‘Em Down” section. But listen, the Chiefs don’t need him. They just don’t, and it’s obvious to see. This game is going to be a shoot out between Mahomes and Herbert. The opportunities just aren’t there so far this season for CEH (27 rushes and 3 targets), and I’m not sure they will come. I think the Chiefs will be in a lot of shoot outs this season considering their lack of defense, and that isn’t a good game script for a running back that doesn’t catch the ball, and can’t hit a home run at any given moment. Honestly, if I’m a CEH shareholder, which I’m not, I’d be looking to trade him.
(Photo by Terrance Williams / Associated Press via kshb.com)
Michael Carter/Tevin Coleman (NYJ) @ DEN – I won’t lie to you here, you shouldn’t be starting either of these two this season unless you are in a complete emergency situation in your fantasy league for running backs. The Jets haven’t righted the ship yet, and the back field is about as clear as mud. Michael Carter leads the two backs with 65 yards on 15 attempts in 2 games. Coleman is worse, 48 yards on 14 attempts. Oh yeah, and they play Denver, 3rd best in the league this year against rushers. Keep you Jets grounded.
Myles Gaskin (MIA) @ LV – The Raiders aren’t spectacular on defense against the rush, but it’s not going to matter one iota on Sunday. The Raiders are going to get out ahead, early, and you definitely aren’t going to be running the ball in order to make a come back. Not to mention, Jacoby Brissett is going to be behind the helm with Tua out. Not that Brissett is horrible, because he isn’t, but I just don’t see much magic coming from him this time around. It might end up being a slaughter by the Raiders, and I just don’t see many opportunities for Gaskin in this game. Even if they do end up to get inside the 10 or on the goal line, it sounds like Malcolm Brown is that guy. You can do better.
WR:
Deonte Harris (NO) @ NE – We go back to the Saints, and much of this is because of Jameis and his lack of passing yardage this season. You may have never heard of Harris, but he is the Saints leading receiver right now, with 3 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in 2 games. New England has a solid defense, and I think it is going to give Winston fits, and if he is having issues, his pass catchers will. Look elsewhere this Sunday.
Chase Claypool (PIT) VS CIN – Again this goes back to the quarterback play associated with said wide receiver. Big Ben is on the struggle bus. Where Claypool shines is the deep ball, and there is a couple reasons why I think he has a poor game this week. The Bengals have done well against the deep ball, but do allow yardage in the short game. Reason two is Big Ben just doesn’t have the deep ball power or accuracy that you’re used to seeing, at least so far this season. Those two reasons will make it hard for Claypool to have a game. That being said, this may be a week that JuJu gets annihilated with targets in the short game, especially with Ben missing his WR1 (Dionte Johnson).
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) VS GB – Sunday night may be very long for the San Francisco wide receivers, the Packers have an excellent secondary, and if I put it up to either Aiyuk or Samuel having the game, it has to be Samuel. Aiyuk literally only has 1 catch this season on 2 targets for 6 yards. WOOF. Samuel is hogging the target share, and he should, he’s an absolute monster once the ball is in his hands. Don’t expect a lot out of Aiyuk is all I’m trying to say. But, it does only take one shimmy from him and he could be gone. Just don’t rely on that, especially if he is banged up, since there seems to a serious problem with 49ers getting injured year after year.
Sleepers:
Damien Harris (NE) VS NO – This may be the sleepiest sleeper I’ve had. No doubt actually. The match up against the Saints smells like absolute disaster. 2nd best defense in the league against the run, he’s on an offense being led by a rookie quarterback, and he’s a 3rd year rusher with 14 games under his belt. Listen up Linda. This game is going to be low scoring. It’ll be a grind. The Patriots are going to make sure that Mac Attack is comfortable back there against a strong defense, and how do you do that? You establish a run game and have a scheme ready. You know that Great Uncle Bill loves his schemes. They’re going to pound the rock. Harris has ran the ball 39 times this year, 6th most in the league, just behind Dalvin Cook. He’s their guy. I know, Belichick does some weird shit with his running backs. But I think Harris is without a doubt the guy. He will have opportunities, a bunch, and I think he breaks away for a solid touchdown run in this game. Mark it.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) @ CLE – Well folks, it is happening, and it only took 2 weeks. Justin Fields gets the nod at quarterback this Sunday for the Bears due to an Andy Dalton injury. But honestly, I don’t see Dalton coming back after this weekend to be the starter, mainly because I think the Bears win. But, this is about Mooney. I love Darnell Mooney this week, and you should too. Mooney is a serious deep threat who has never had a quarterback that could deliver him those home run balls, but now he does with Fields. Last week Mooney had 8 targets compared to Allen Robinson’s 4, and not that it will continue on a regular basis, but you definitely could see an uptick in targets now that Fields is throwing the ball. The Browns have currently given up 8 – 20+ yard passing plays, and 1 – 40+ yard passing play, that resulted in a 75 yard TD. Don’t be surprised if Mooney gets behind the secondary this Sunday, at least once, and houses a long ball.
(Photo by Brace Hemmelgram / USA Today Sports via247sports)
Justin Fields (CHI) @ CLE – That’s right, I’m doubling down on Bears this week in my Sleeper portion, so shoot me. Maybe it’s because I’m stoked to see what Fields can do, or maybe its in part to my first blog this season highlighting the 2021 rookie quarterbacks, does it honestly matter? So lets throw some points of reason out there. Cleveland, as pointed out in the paragraph above, is giving up big yardage through the air, Fields has an ARM, and a wide receiver that can fly. Mahomes torched the Browns in week 1. He threw for 337 yards and 3 TD’s, and then added 18 yards and a TD on the ground. It’s the ground for me, that’s the element Fields has that Dalton doesn’t. The Browns will try to get after the rookie quickly, but I think they’re going to underestimate his escapability and rushing capability to the point where it burns them. Fields could easily rush for 50 or more on Sunday, and put up 300 through the air, and that is more than enough for a rookie quarterback making his starting debut in the NFL.
I’m adding a mini section this week in the blog, and I’m going to call them unknown dart throws. Players you can put in your DFS lineup that have a chance to explode, all while not being owned by a lot of people in the game you’re playing, whether it be Draft Kings or Fan Duel. Here’s why, you need to have at least one in your lineup so it differentiates from the rest of the field. If you have the same lineup as 2,000 others in the game, and your players hit, you don’t get the payout you could because you all had the same amount of points. You need those unknowns, and you need ones with the probability to do damage. So let’s go.
Unknown Dart Throws (DFS):
Rondale Moore (WR) Arizona – With DeAndre Hopkins status in question for the Cardinals on Sunday, Kyler is going to need another weapon to throw to. Moore torched the Vikings last week (7 catches, 114 yards, 1 TD), and he has the Jags this week. Juicy. Currently $5,000 on Draft Kings.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR) Buffalo – I just love this match up to be honest. I think Josh Allen dominates, and I don’t expect Diggs to get 20 catches, but he might get 12. On the opposite side of the lineup, you have his partner this week Emmanuel Sanders, who is due for a breakout game for the Bills. He’s averaging 7 targets a game, and hasn’t cashed in yet, but this week I think he does. Currently $4,200 on Draft Kings.
Quintez Cephus (WR) Detroit – Yeah, I’m throwing a Lion on here. Why? He’s the only other target Goff has besides “Hock,” and he has a TD in each of the first two games of the season, with an average of 6 targets. Yeah, its the Ravens, they’re tough. But they’re going to try to eliminate Hockenson all they can, and Goff will go to his next best option through the air, Cephus. Currently $3,900 on Draft Kings.
Cordarelle Patterson (RB) Atlanta – Here we all thought that Mike Davis was going to be the man in Atlanta, then in waltz’s Patterson. Last week he had 7 attempts for 11 yards and a TD, not flashy. But, he also added in 5 catches for 58 yards and a TD. You can’t not love that stat line, especially in DFS when no one owns him, and when it’s PPR. Currently $4,600 on Draft Kings.
Javonte Williams (RB) Denver – Williams and Gordon have been very similar this year after two games, both in attempts and yardage, the only difference is Gordon has the TD. I think this week Williams gets his, and you could do far worse of a running back this week. Williams faces the Jets this week, and I think that he will be just fine. Currently $4,900 on Draft Kings.
Sony Michel (RB) LAR – This game is going to be a shoot out I think, I think Brady exposes some of the Rams defense, and the offensive line does enough to let him chuck the ball all game. That being said, the Rams will have to answer, and what to the Bucs struggle against, passing attacks. I see Stafford lighting it up as well with Kupp and finally getting Woods involved. But I think there’s a great chance Sony Michel has enough catches to find the end zone, especially if Henderson is out (he is currently questionable). Currently $4,900 on Draft Kings.
Good luck this week in your Fantasy Football Leagues and in DFS, we will see you next Saturday for the Week 4 breakdown.
Here’s to high floors and high scores!
SKOL
- JD