Things To Know Before Thursday Night Football: Week 11
(Photo by Jim Davis - Globe Staff - via bostonglobe.com)
Mac Jones and the Patriots head to Atlanta tonight to take Matt Ryan and the Falcons, who have been struggling to stay in the win column this season. They definitely don’t look like the high flying offense we knew for so long down in ATL, but there are some key reasons why. Julio dipped out and headed to Tennessee, Calvin Ridley is sitting out due to personal reasons, and they’re the 4th worst rushing offense in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, you have New England, who right now has the best 2021 rookie quarterback based on performance so far. They bring a stout defense, a run-heavy attack with multiple good rushers to boot, and of course, Mac Jones who has found his rhythm as of late, and understands the team’s identity.
Two teams who as of now, are headed in very opposite directions, one for the playoffs, and one for the couch.
This may be a lopsided affair, of course in favor of the Patriots, who come in only 6.5 point favorites which kind of blows my mind. So let’s dive into the fantasy matchups for New England @ Atlanta.
Matt Ryan has had a rough season. He lost both of his top receivers, one to a new team, and one for personal reasons. So that leaves him with a rookie TE who has fared “ok” so far, and a bunch of second and third string receivers. If it wasn’t for the emergence of Cordarrelle Patterson, he’d be even worse off. Ryan sits as QB18 so far, and tonight it’s going to be a tough game for him once again. The Patriots are 5th best against fantasy quarterbacks, and that doesn’t bode well for ole “Matty Ice.” If able, find a different option. ($10,800 or $16,200 as Captain)
The “Mac Attack” is only the QB20 this season in fantasy football, but it’s not because he has been bad. The previously mentioned running back by committee the Patriots has is good, damn good, and Mac Jones doesn’t need to use his arm a lot just yet. Atlanta is 26th overall against fantasy quarterbacks, and if I know Uncle Bill, I bet he has some ideas for Mac to show off his arm tonight. Yeah, the running backs are going to do a lot of work, but I would take Mac Jones over Matt Ryan 10 times out of 10 tonight in DFS. ($10,600 or $15,900 as Captain)
Cordarrelle Patterson, the surprise of the 2021 NFL and Fantasy Football Season. Who would’ve thought right? We honestly should have had some kind of inkling though, because Mike Davis was never going to be a stud starting running back. He filled in nice for CMC last season in Carolina, but that’s all he is, a fill in. Patterson is a “Game Time Decision” tonight, but if he’s playing, you’re starting him. He’s the RB10 on the year, and hasn’t scored less than 15 points besides in week 7, and he still had a touchdown in that game. I think Flash Patterson plays, and even against a stout Patriots defense, it’s fine because he catches the ball a LOT. ($10,200 or $15,300 as Captain)
Mike Davis/Wayne Gallman are the backup plans in case Patterson doesn’t play. If that’s the case, I don’t feel comfortable starting Davis in any way, shape, or form. He can’t get past the line of scrimmage, and he doesn’t catch the ball. Gallman is different, not much different but he is. Gallman will actually catch the ball, and I’m not saying he’s a safe start, but if you absolutely have to throw him in the lineup you may get more points than you think solely due to receptions. Both are gross plays, but if you need one of the two, you start Gallman, and ONLY if Patterson is out. (Davis - $5,800 or $8,700 as Captain. Gallman - $8,400 or $12,600 as Captain)
Damien Harris is officially a go this week. He was rested last week due to a concussion, and he was cleared Wednesday and taken off the injury report. Atlanta has the 22nd worst defense against fantasy running backs, and he is a great play. When Harris plays a poor rushing defense, he has scored at least 1 touchdown per game, and that could continue tonight. The only thing you need to worry about is the other backs that will touch the ball, but Harris is indeed their RB1 and should get the bulk of the work. ($8,800 or $13,200 as Captain)
Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson stepped up last week in the absence of Harris, logging 27.4 points on a 55% snap count. With that kind of production you have to assume that Uncle Bill isn’t going to just push Stevenson back to the bench now that Harris is back. They will have packages, drives, and designed plays just for Stevenson, and he could be a nice flex option tonight against the crappy Falcons rush defense. ($8,600 or $12,900 as Captain)
Kyle Pitts is the Falcons’ best option through the air and will be going forward. That’s not to say that this week is a smash play for Pitts, the Patriots have the 11th best defense against receivers, and that is something they pride on. “But Pitts is a tight end, not a wide receiver James.” Wrong, he is a glorified receiver, and he will be his whole career, even if the roster says tight end. The Patriots secondary flies to the ball, are sure tacklers, and don’t let quarterbacks get into a rhythm. They may blanket Pitts, but if Matt Ryan wants a chance to compete tonight, he will have to try to find a way to get him the ball. ($9,600 or $14,400 as Captain)
Russell Gage is an interesting concept considering he has been without Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley and really has nothing to show for it. I will give him the benefit of the doubt though, he didn’t play in 3 games this season. Even so, as the WR2 on the Falcons now, he is the WR94 on the year in PPR Fantasy Football rankings. This kind of goes to show how irrelevant he has been, and I don’t expect relevancy to automatically appear tonight. ($6,600 or $9,900 as Captain)
Welcome to the end zone, Jakobi Meyers! It only took 2 and a half seasons and the backup quarterback but by god he did it! All jokes aside, Meyers has been fairly consistent this season for being on a rush-heavy offense. He is the WR33 on the year and will continue to be Mac Jones’ WR1. He has only scored below 7 points once this season, which isn’t all that impressive, but he is a solid WR3 for your fantasy team. Who knows, maybe he goes on a hot streak of touchdowns and makes it 2 weeks in a row tonight. ($8,000 or $12,000 as Captain)
Kendrick Bourne only ranks one up higher than Meyers on the year, he sits as the WR32, mainly due to a big week against Cleveland. He had his best game scoring 24.1 points, having the most yards in a game this season (98), and a touchdown. He still sits as the Patriots’ WR2 in my mind, but with his latest involvement, he may end up having the better game between Meyers and himself. I like Bourne a lot tonight, and I think he finds pay dirt again against this poor Atlanta defense. ($7,600 or $11,400 as Captain)
Remember when the Patriots signed both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith last season and we all got extremely sad because we thought it would hurt their production? Yeah, me too. NOW look at Henry, he has been one of the most consistent tight ends in the league this year for fantasy football and has climbed the ranks as the overall TE4. That’s right, the TE4. Yeah, Jonnu has been hurt, but I didn’t predict this amount of consistency from Hunter Henry. All he does is score touchdowns, I mean literally. Last week – 4 catches, 37 yards, 2 touchdowns. Against Carolina – 2 catches, 19 yards, 1 touchdown. The list goes on and on. He has at least 1 touchdown in 6 of the last 7 games. The Falcons are 13th overall against fantasy tight ends, so the trend could very well continue. Henry is a must-start until his production plummets, and I don’t think that’s happening. ($7,000 or $10,500 as Captain)
Overall, as I stated before, I think this game goes heavily in the favor of the Patriots, and I think the running back corp gets a workout, in a good way. The Falcons will have to pass to stay close by, but I also think that you could start the Patriots Defense in DFS. I could easily see Matt Ryan forcing balls into Pitts and throwing 2 interceptions, and with the talent that is the Pats secondary, they could house it at any moment. The Patriots are a fine play in DFS tonight. ($5,600 or $8,400 as Captain)
Good luck tonight in DFS and this week in Fantasy Football Week 11!
The Playoffs are taking shape, and I hope you’re on the right end of the spectrum.
Check back this weekend for my full slate breakdown for Week 11, and then come back next Wednesday for my Turkey Day Special Breakdown.
Here’s to high floors and scores.
SKOL
- JD