JD's Week 11 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
(Brace Hemmelgarn - USA Today Sports - via bemidjipioneer.com)
With Turkey Day around the corner, we are edging closer and closer to the Fantasy Football Playoffs, just 4 weeks out to be exact, and you’re going to want to do everything you can to solidify your playoff berth or fight your way into the tournament.
That being said, you can’t get too cute when setting your lineups here on out. Use your gut, your gut is right 90% of the time when setting a lineup, and over analyzing can make or break a week for you. I do it, everyone does it, it happens, but now isn’t the time to let it happen. Start your studs, bench your players you’re unsure of. Play the match up, if you have a starting wide receiver going against a porous passing defense but you’re thinking about playing that big boom player against a mediocre to good passing defense what do you do? You play your stud starter. The floor is going to be much safer with that player, and the ceiling may not be of what the boom player is, but if that boom player doesn’t hit, you’re going to hurt your team.
Let’s dive in, and get you lubed up and ready for the playoffs in coming weeks, and prep starts with Week 11.
Must Starts
(Ron Jenkins - Associated Press - theguardian.com)
QB:
Dak Prescott (DAL) @ KC – Let’s start this thing out with a bang shall we? This is the game of the week if you’re looking for fantasy points, and you’ll want pieces of this pie. With a 56.5 implied point total this is what fantasy managers dream of. They also dream of a match up that is for Prescott. Dak takes on the worst fantasy defense against quarterbacks on Sunday, and it honestly doesn’t matter that Amari Cooper is out. He is going to get his ball to Lamb, Zeke, and Michael Gallup (who we will get to later). Dak is the QB9 right now in fantasy football, and after this week, he very well may shoot into the top 5 with the ability to run if needed. If you’re going to pay up in DFS this week for a quarterback, Dak is the man. ($7,200 on DK)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs DAL – Need I say more about this game, I told you that you’ll want pieces, and if you don’t want to pay up for Dak, then pay up for Mahomes. The Cowboys defense isn’t as bad against quarterbacks as the Chiefs, but in a shootout your best players make plays, and Mahomes is going to have to wheel and deal to keep this game going. It could be an all out blitz of points, and I fully expect you to see one of the best fantasy games of Mahomes’ season. It shouldn’t be hard to figure out with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and they’ve struggled time to time this season, but in the game of the week this afternoon, the stars are going to come to play and put on a show. ($7,600 on DK)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) @ MIN – Boo! Hiss! That’s the Vikings fan in me, and now we can move on. Rodgers has torched my Vikings in recent years, and even though their secondary has gotten better, they’re middle of the road against fantasy quarterbacks (13th). Not to mention Davante Adams, who has my Vikings number and will line up against Breeland who has been the biggest dumpster fire in the back alley behind a strip joint. Expect Rodgers to get back to his gun slinging self after his little COVID episode. ($7,000 on DK)
RB:
Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs GB – I know, I’m a homer right? Wrong, I’m here to tell you it is absolutely FINE to start Dalvin Cook against a Packers defense that is 10th against fantasy running backs. Why? Because if Aaron Rodgers has the Vikings number, Cook has the Packers. In 5 total games against Green Bay Cook has 435 rushing yards, with a 5.3 ypc, and 6 rushing touchdowns. Then add in 12 catches for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns. Some nice numbers; and if the Vikings want to keep pace with the Packers today, they’re going to have to find a way to get Cook the ball, because I fear Green Bay’s secondary could shut down their star receiver Justin Jefferson. ($8,200 on DK)
Nick Chubb (CLE) vs DET – Good lord is Detroit a disaster or what? Right now this might be the biggest smash play in fantasy football and DFS this week, and you should all put Chubb in your lineups. Detroit is 28th against fantasy running backs. That’s not even the reason why I love Chubb. The Browns can’t move the ball through the air, and they won’t. They have no reliable weapons out there, and you know Stefanski LOVES to run the ball. Chubb will see a majority of the work, and yeah, Johnson will spell, but when Chubb is the best player on the entire team, they’re going to feed him the rock against the Motor City Kitties. ($7,800 on DK)
Joe Mixon (CIN) @ LV – The Bengals come off the bye week, and that just gives them more time to design more plays to get Mixon the ball. Mixon sits as the RB9 on the year, and this week he gets a great match up against the Raiders who let running backs go to town. They’re 23rd against fantasy backs, and this week it could end up being on all out slaughter for Mixon and the Bengals. Not only is he going to get the ball in the trenches, but the guy is indeed involved in the passing game; and when he catches 4 or more passes, he has scored on one of those in 50% of games. ($7,600)
WR:
Deebo Samuel (SF) @ JAX – The main man Deebo is back in full form. The guy has been a monster (when healthy), and right now he can’t be stopped. Throw in a god awful Jacksonville team, and Deebo might have another 30 point fantasy game today. Only in 1 game this season has Samuel had a ypc average of less than 11 yards, with his max being 28.5! Averaging nearly 30 yards per catch is nuclear, but even more impressive when you have 6 catches like he did that game. Insanity. He is just stronger and faster than everyone and is a guy that will win people championships this season. There is never an occasion when you sit him. Fire up Deebo, and watch him take 10 yard slants for 80 yards to the house on a regular basis. ($7,800 on DK)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) vs IND – Well, it only took 10 weeks, but last week you finally got that BOOM game from Stefon Diggs. He’s been good all year don’t get me wrong, but you have to admit to be a bit disappointed that it took that long to get that smash game. Diggs now sits as the WR12 after last weeks 8 catches for 162 yards and 1 touchdown game, and this week he takes on a bad Colts secondary. Indianapolis ranks 30th against fantasy wide receivers, and I expect Josh Allen and company to have a field day through the air. Throw Diggy in your lineup and you should get a solid WR1 performance today. ($7,900 on DK)
Devonta Smith (PHI) vs NO – I told you last week that Jalen Hurts has been a good fantasy football quarterback this season, and one reason why is rookie Devonta Smith. Smith has been good this year, ranging in the WR2 range for fantasy lineups, and the last two games he has had at least 22 points, and one of those was against a good Chargers defense against wide outs. Hurts is going to keep looking Smith’s way, because he is the most trustworthy option the Eagles have. New Orleans has been great on the ground as far as defense goes, but through the air, they’re 25th against fantasy receivers. Let Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith do their thing this week, because I don’t think the two of them will slow down too much. ($6,400 on DK)
Sit ‘Em Down
(Jared Mueller - USA Today Sports - via brownswire.usatoday.com)
QB:
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) @ CAR – Heinicke has only scored 20 points in half of the games this season, and when he doesn’t score that amount it isn’t very pretty. This week he takes on a tough Carolina defense that is very much for real. They are 5th against fantasy quarterbacks, and I just have a hard time believing he is going to get anything relevant going. In a 2 QB league you may be safe, depending on who your QB1 is, but I’m looking elsewhere.
Carson Wentz (IND) @ BUF – Well if you thought Heinicke’s match up was hard, I raise you Carson Wentz’ game this week. Buffalo is the DEF1 against fantasy quarterbacks, and the fact that the Colts aren’t at home is going to make it even harder. It also sounds like the wind could be a factor, and even though I don’t think it effects Josh Allen since he is far superior, I think Wentz struggles. Go ahead and have him ride the pine today.
Derek Carr (LV) vs CIN – The Bengals defense has been on a tear as of late, and even though they’re middle of the road (16th) against fantasy quarterbacks, Carr hasn’t been great. I don’t know if its the loss of Gruden, or Ruggs, or both, but he has had a decline in production since all the fallout happened. If they can somehow find a way to get the ball to Darren Waller who has been mediocre this season then that will change, but until then I can’t see a good ending in starting Carr.
RB:
Zack Moss/Devin Singletary (BUF) vs IND – How nice of the Buffalo coaching staff to throw a third running back in the mix for the Bills. As if deciding which of these two to play on a weekly basis wasn’t hard enough, then they start giving carries to Matt Breida. Not only is it a hard decision in a very split backfield, but the Colts have the 3rd best defense against fantasy running backs. They’re going to rely on Josh Allen and his arm today. If able, avoid the Buffalo backfield this week.
Josh Jacobs (LV) vs CIN – It’s not that Josh Jacobs hasn’t been good, because he has been fine. He is the RB27 this year, so a low end RB2 in fantasy football. The Bengals defense was poor against fantasy backs leading into the bye week, but I think they probably worked on that and figured out how to shut down these Raiders with the extra week. Not only that, but if the Bengals get up early, and I’m expecting them to, Carr isn’t going to be handing off the ball to make a comeback.
Alex Collins (SEA) vs ARI – Russ is back, Carson is out for the season, so that means it’s the Alex Collins show going forward. The Cardinals have had a decent to middle of the road defense against rushers in fantasy, but I don’t think the Seachickens can keep up on the ground. Collins should have an “ok” game, but I think you could do better in your lineup today.
WR:
Jarvis Landry (CLE) vs DET – Believe it or not, if the Lions have one thing going for them in this disaster season it’s their defense against the pass. They currently rank 9th against receiving fantasy players, and this week it won’t be easy for the Browns. I side on the fact that not only is Cleveland a run first and heavy team, but Baker Mayfield just isn’t a good quarterback. They’re going to pound that rock with Chubb and Johnson today, so if you can, leave any and all Browns pass catchers on the bench.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) vs BAL – I know, Robinson isn’t going to suit up, but the truth of the matter is that these Bears don’t know their identity other than they’re really good at running the ball. With David Montgomery back, there is no reason why they wouldn’t utilize their star running back. Mooney will have opportunities, but the Baltimore defense against receivers is good, 7th overall. Fields will continue to grow, and I think he has a decent game, but I with Robinson possibly absent, the Ravens will blanket Mooney.
Marquez Callaway (NO) @ PHI – I just don’t know what to think about these Saints to be honest. Kamara is out again, so in a match up against a tough Philly passing defense I like Mark Ingram’s chances of taking over this game and them not having to throw the ball much. Even if they do, they seem to spread the ball around well, which means limited targets for Callaway. As the WR44 on the year, and in a tough game, I don’t think you risk throwing him in your lineup, even as a flex.
Sleepers:
(David Butler II - USA Today Sports - via 49erswebzone.com)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) @ NYJ – Big fan of what this game has to offer today on Miami’s side of the ball. The Jets suck, Tua has been ok when not hurt, and I think he takes advantage of a sub par defense today. He’s started only 5 games so far, but in those games he has only scored less than 13 fantasy points 1 time (I’m not counting the game he got hurt in). In those 5 games he has scored a rushing touch down in 3 of them. So he has the dynamic of rushing ability added to his game. I think you can stream or put Tua in your Super Flex lineup no problem, and is a dirt cheap DFS play today with a potential breakout scenario. ($5,500 on DK)
Mark Ingram (NO) @ PHI – Kamara is out yet again, which means its all systems go for Ingram again in leading the backfield. With an absolutely awful rush defense in Philly (29th), Ingram could have a monster game. Last week with Kamara out; Ingram had 14 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 catches on 7 targets for 61 yards in the passing game. Wheels up on Ingram, and a damn cheap option. ($5,400 on DK)
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) @ JAX – It’s still not 100% known if Elijah Mitchell is playing today, but I’m not sure it matters. I’m expecting him to sit. So in comes Wilson, who is another one of Shanahan’s fantastic backs. When Wilson starts in the backfield, he averages 123 yards per game, and has 4 total rushing touchdowns. Just for good measure, that was only 3 games started, so you see what could happen for you, and it’s beautiful. ($5,100 on DK)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) @ TEN – I know, Cooks’ quarterback situation is god awful, but the guy is still producing and is the WR1 on the team by a landslide. In a game where the game script screams blowout, Houston is going to have to get their best player the ball, and that is Brandin Cooks. He may not have a monster game, but you should have a very solid WR2 match up for Cooks today. ($6,000 on DK)
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) vs IND – See Stefon Diggs. This game is going to be an air show, and I don’t care if it’s Diggs, Sanders, or Knox in my lineup, I’d be happy with any of the three. Josh Allen could have one of those 40 point games today against Indy, and if that is indeed the case, Sanders is a high end WR3 to low end WR2 today. The Bills could struggle to run, so again, you turn to Josh Allen and his weapons. ($5,300 on DK)
Dan Arnold (JAX) vs SF – Dan freaking Arnold has been doing nothing but climbing the fantasy football tight end rankings. The last 5 games these are his receptions – 5, 4, 8, 2, 6. He is almost guaranteed 60+ yards per game, and in a game script where the Jags should be well behind, Lawrence is going to be throwing the ball. ($4,100 on DK)
Unknown Dart Throws
(Brace Hemmelgarn - USA Today Sports - via bemidjipioneer.com)
Cam Newton (CAR) vs WAS – Super Cam is back in Carolina, and probably should never have left honestly. Washington’s pass defense is awful, and of course Cam is a touchdown vulture on the goal line. I think he has a great game in his starting return, and I think CMC owners will again be upset when Cam gets all the goal line carries. ($5,100 on DK)
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) vs HOU – Foreman was kind of quiet the last couple games with no Henry, but still managed to score 9+ points last week. He isn’t a break out star by any means, but if you’re looking to spend up on your quarterback and wide receivers this week in DFS, Foreman is a solid flex to toss in. He should get the bulk of the work, and there is a chance he finds pay dirt this week against a middle of the road Houston rush defense. ($4,900 on DK)
Rashod Bateman (BAL) @ CHI – I know, I’ve been saying it for weeks, Bateman is going to break out. But, this is it. Calling my shot. This is the week. Hollywood Brown is down and out, and its time for the former Golden Gopher to step up and show the NFL why Baltimore drafted him. Chicago’s passing defense is awful so there is another reason I believe he has a breakout week. He literally has all the tools and props to make it happen. So speak it into existence people. ($4,500 on DK)
Jamal Agnew (JAX) vs SF – Again, the Jags should be down in this game, and Agnew has been utilized both on the ground and through the air for them. He has been seeing a decent amount of uptick in snap percentage, and even with Robinson playing I think they find a way to get Agnew the ball. He has a touchdown in 2 of the last 3 games, and now that James Robinson is playing as mentioned, Agnew should see targets, because Robinson will set up the play action. ($4,700 on DK)
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) @ LV – Remember when Uzomah had those 2 great back to back games and then fell silent. Well today I think he makes his voice heard again. The Raiders are 30th against fantasy tight ends, and if there was ever another game for Uzomah to show up and show out, it’s this afternoon in a damn near perfect match up. ($3,500 on DK)
Tyler Conklin (MIN) vs GB – In a game where we could end up in a shoot out honestly, and a game where the Packers try to shut down Jefferson and Thielen, I think Conk continues his validity as a streaming tight end. He is always a threat in the red zone, and can absolutely run after the catch, it may not be pretty, but he can. I think he is a fine option today, and cheap too. ($3,900 on DK)
Good luck this week everyone, and make sure to check back Wednesday this week for the Turkey Day Fantasy Breakdown for Thursday!
Here’s to high floors and scores!
SKOL
- JD