JD's Thanksgiving Fantasy Football Special
(Photo by Adrian Kraus Associated Press - via syracuse.com)
So you got your turkey in the oven, or on the grill, or in the smoker, and you’re getting ready to fill that belly up with great food and beverages and nestle in on the couch to watch some NFL action! There’s nothing better than the marquee matchups of Thanksgiving Thursday.. well maybe in other years.
One of these years the NFL is going to have to ditch the Lions from this Thanksgiving game day. I know it’s “tradition,” but it’s about as lame and insane as the tradition of listening to a rodent the size of a football tell us if winter is over or not. The Lions are garbage and have been for a long time. So listen up NFL, it’s time to boot the tradition of watching the Motor City Kitties embarrass themselves on national television every November, and give us a fun opening game on Thanksgiving to watch.
The second game isn’t terribly better, the Raiders have been on the downhill slide since Gruden left and Ruggs decided to be a jackass behind the wheel. They’re struggling, and even if the Cowboys did fall to the Chiefs this last Sunday, I don’t think Las Vegas stands a chance. Might as well grab another plate or make a turkey sandwich with leftovers to watch the ‘Boys cook the Raiders.
If you’re able to avoid the Turkey coma for game 3, you might be rewarded. The Bills, who actually just got obliterated by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts take on the Saints in a 45.5 o/u finale for Turkey Day. There could be a bunch of fantasy points in this one, and if Kamara plays, he’s salivating at what Taylor was able to accomplish last week in Buffalo.
So let’s break down the Turkey Day matchups and win some money. I’ll give you notable players from each game who I think are worth starting and worth tossing into that DFS lineup for today. To avoid a lengthy read on this Holiday, if you don’t see a player mentioned, it’s because I don’t think they’re worth your time or a starting position.
Check that internal temp of your bird, get that beer in the fridge, and let’s get to work.
Game 1 – 11:30 – Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
QB:
Here’s the deal, I really just hate both quarterbacks in this match-up. It’s a lose-lose situation. Goff or Boyle, it doesn’t matter, they both stink. Then the Red Rocket Andy Dalton on the other side for the injured Justin Fields. Gross. BUT, if you’re doing a DFS “Showdown” and need to pick one, it’s Dalton. Goff has been terrible, even when he plays, and Boyle is a no-one. Literally a no one. This is his 3rd year, and his first start was last week and it was an utter disaster. 15 of 23 for 77 yards and 2 interceptions. YUCK. So ride the Red Rocket if you have to, but don’t expect anything pretty, because he won’t have Allen Robinson and the Detroit defense against the pass is actually quite good. So.. here.. (Andy Dalton - $10,400 or $15,600 as Captain)
RB:
D’Andre Swift (DET) – If there is a bright spot for the Lions, it’s 100% Swift, who if can stay healthy, is the future of this backfield. Even on a crappy team, Swift is the RB5 on the year, largely due to his active involvement in the passing game. The last was his lowest reception count with 4, and only two others games of just 5. Otherwise, it’s been 6-11 per game. 6 touchdowns on the year and a healthy amount of rushing attempts have landed Swift on the must-start list across the Fantasy Football community the whole season. If I’m choosing a captain in this one, Swift is on the top of that list, with the guys I’m about to talk about next right behind him. ($11,600 or $17,400 as Captain)
(Photo by Brendan Sugrue USA Today Sports - via bearswire.usatoday.com)
David Montgomery (CHI) – With the production, Khalil Herbert had in Montgomery’s absence, fantasy owners were nervous if they’d split carries or not. You have to admit, Herbert was fantastic. But, Montgomery is back, and Herbert disappeared. Since his return, Mont hit 85, and 95% snap percentage. The backfield is his. With a 29th overall defense against running backs in Detroit Rock City, David Montgomery could go off. Without a doubt debating between him and Swift as my Captain for DFS. ($11,200 or $16,800 as Captain)
WR:
Darnell Mooney (CHI) – With Allen Robinson sidelined it’s safe to say that Mooney will be the main target today in Detroit. Detroit’s passing defense isn’t bad, but I think that Mooney is able to sneak behind the secondary and have at least one explosive play today. Dalton likes the deep shot, as you saw last week when they connected for a 60-yard score, and in Robinson’s absence, Mooney had 14 targets. There’s no reason to not throw him into your lineup today, there has to be one shining star through the air today in this game, and it might as well be Mooney. ($9,800 or $14,700 as Captain)
Kalif Raymond (DET) – If you REALLY feel the need to throw a Lion wideout in your lineup today, Raymond is your option. He and St. Brown have almost identical amounts of receptions and yards, but Raymond is the one who has the 2 touchdowns. I don’t trust this Lions passing attack, but if you’re looking for a dart throw, I think Raymond is the safer bet of the two. ($5,400 or $8,100 as Captain)
TE:
Cole Kmet (CHI) – The good news with Kmet is that he has been much more involved in the Bears offense as of late. The bad news is, that was when Justin Fields was passing the ball. Dalton didn’t target Kmet near as much, but that doesn’t mean Dalton didn’t see the production Kmet could do and change his ways today. The other side of the coin and the tight end I’m targeting however will be wearing baby blue today. If the Bears get into the red zone, and if they don’t hand the ball off to Montgomery, Kmet is the target in the stripe. But that’s a lot of ifs. ($5,000 or $7,500 as Captain)
T.J. Hockenson (DET) – Even though he is without a doubt the best weapon for Detroit through the air, his season has been up and down, mostly down. He only has 2 touchdowns this season, not the production you were looking for in a possible break-out tight end. The good news though, even with 2 touchdowns he is still the TE5 on the year in PPR. The Bears do defend tight ends well (7th in fantasy), but if the Lions are looking for a Thanksgiving upset, they’ll need to get Hock and Swift the ball early and often. ($8,200 or $12,300 as Captain)
Game 2 – 3:30 – Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys
QB:
Derek Carr (LV) – Carr comes in at the QB16 so far this season, and against bad passing defenses, he flourishes. But, against tougher defenses, he struggles. Last week against a tough Bengals defense Carr only scored 8.6 points, and against Chicago, he scored 7.24 points. See the trend. Dallas has a tough defense in the air, and I’m expecting a similar result for Carr today in Dallas with limited receiving weapons. I personally won’t be having him in any lineups if at all avoidable. ($10,000 or $15,000 as Captain)
Dak Prescott (DAL) – Here is an interesting situation for Dak. Last week against a bad KC passing defense he only managed to put up 2.64 fantasy points. He had no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. I don’t see that happening today. I think the Cowboys come back to form, especially if Lamb plays, and stomp LV. Dak has scored 20+ points in 6 of 9 contests this season, and I think he gets 7 of 10 today. ($11,200 or $16,800 as Captain)
RB:
Josh Jacobs (LV) – Jacobs has been wildly mediocre this season for the Raiders. He has however scored 5 rushing touchdowns, but that was before the Gruden and Ruggs ordeals went down. Those are distractions, and it’s obvious to see in the LV organization in the way they’ve been playing. If they can get Jacobs involved more, he will break one eventually. The one area you don’t have to worry about with him is the passing game, over the last 3 games he’s had 4, 5, and 7 targets. Just remember he goes up against a Dallas defense that is 5th overall against fantasy running backs. ($6,800 or $10,200 as Captain)
(Photo by Roger Steinman Associated Press - via theguardian.com)
Zeke Elliott (DAL) – Of course in a week where I play Zeke he has a smash match-up. The Raiders rushing defense is awful, 26th overall against fantasy backs, so that means it should be a “Feed Zeke” day in Dallas, and lucky for Zeke it’s Thanksgiving and there will be plenty of food to be fed. Zeke is an absolute auto-start today, and my favorite Captain pick in this game. ($10,800 or $16,200 as Captain)
Tony Pollard (DAL) – A smash match-up for Zeke means a smash match-up for Tony Pollard. The RB2 on Dallas could easily be an RB1 on a lot of NFL teams, and I think today he finds the end zone as well. As the RB28 of the year, Pollard should have plenty of opportunities in what I think is a blowout win for Dallas. Pollard gets at least 7 carries a game, and today I think that hits the over, and by a substantial amount. Throw Pollard in a flex, and definitely in your DFS lineup. ($7,000 or $10,500 as Captain)
WR:
Hunter Renfrow (LV) – Renfrow has quietly been a solid WR2 this season, and the reason is he is almost a guarantee for 5 or more catches per game, and that’s not bad at all in PPR. He only has 4 touchdowns on the year, but as the WR1 for Carr, it doesn’t matter, because his partner in crime Bryan Edwards has been a disaster. The Cowboys have a middle-of-the-road defense against wideouts, so expect another WR2 performance from Renfrow today. ($8,200 or $12,300 as Captain)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) – Lamb is in concussion protocol, and only has one more obstacle to overcome today to play. I think he plays, so read this as if he plays today. The Raider’s defense against wideouts is stout (3rd overall), and I think whether Lamb plays or not they will be challenged a bit. They’ll have to get creative, and I think the more they feed Zeke the more open these ‘Boys wide receivers get. Expect a WR2 performance out of Lamb today, with the potential upside of a low-end WR1. ($8,000 or $12,000 as Captain)
Michael Gallup (DAL) – Gallup has been absent all season, landing on the IR from weeks 2-9, but this guy is a great receiver, and would easily be a WR2 on a ton of NFL teams. Last week Gallup brought in 5 catches on 10 targets, and that number should be pretty similar today with Cooper out, and if Lamb is out too, expect more. But, as I said, the Cowboys will have to get the rushing game going in order to open up those passing lanes. Honestly, I like Gallup’s upside today better than Lambs, mainly because of the concussion concerns. But that isn’t to take away anything from Gallup’s raw talent to get open and make a play after the catch. ($8,800 or $13,200 as Captain)
TE:
Darren Waller (LV) – Even as the TE3 on the year, you have to be disappointed in numbers. Waller only has 2 touchdowns on the year, but today he will get the chance to better that. The Dallas defense against tight ends is not good, 23rd to be exact, and if the Raiders want any chance at all this afternoon, Waller needs the ball in his hands. ($10,600 or $15,900 as Captain)
Dalton Schultz (DAL) – Well if you thought Waller had a good match-up, then Schultz is top-notch. The Raiders defense against tight ends is awful, 29th overall, and could be a good out for Dak today to put up some easy numbers. If Lamb sits, or even if he doesn’t, Dalton Schultz should be open, and could easily have one of the better games of his season. ($7,600 or $11,400 as Captain)
Game 3 – 7:30 – Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints
QB:
(Photo by Adrian Kraus Associated Press - via syracuse.com)
Josh Allen (BUF) – Well, last week stunk. Allen only scored 16 points as the Bills got throttled by the Colts. But you have to brush it off, you drafted Allen to be great, and he has been all season. He is currently the QB4 on the season and gets a solid match-up today against a Saints secondary that loves to give up big plays. They’re 23ord overall against fantasy quarterbacks, and if there was ever a chance for Allen and the Bills to bounce back and have a fun game through the air, that game is tonight. ($12,200 or $18,300 as Captain)
Trevor Siemian (NO) – You have to admit if you toss out that first game, Siemian’s fantasy production doesn’t look terrible in 3 games. He had 15.9 points, 19.9 points, and 24.16 points last week against Philly. Today though, you have to temper expectations if you’re forced to start Siemian. The Bills passing defense is elite, and I would expect a whole lot of check-down passes and runs today in New Orleans offensive scheme. ($10,200 or $15,300 as Captain)
RB:
Zack Moss/Devin Singletary/Matt Breida (BUF) – I’m not sure there is a more frustrating fantasy football backfield in the NFL, seriously. We started with what we knew was going to happen, a split between Moss and Singletary. Now in the last few weeks, Buffalo decides to throw Breida in the mix. Annoying is the correct term. That being said, avoid these 3 at all costs today. Not only is it a three-headed timeshare, but New Orleans has the best fantasy football rushing defense in the league. But, if you must… (Moss - $4,400 or $6,600 as Captain, Singletary - $5,000 or $7,500 as Captain, Breida - $3,800 or $5,700 as Captain)
Mark Ingram/Tony Jones Jr. (NO) – What a nightmare of a match-up for both backfields tonight. Kamara is out, so that leaves it up to Ingram (who’s questionable) or Tony Jones Jr. who is fresh off the IR. Buffalo has the 7th best rush defense against fantasy backs in the league, but the MVP Jonathan Taylor destroyed it last week. I think they have a chance to have production tonight, but it is just a matter of who is in the lineup. I think Ingram plays, but I think he’s limited, which means touches for Tony Jones Jr. as well. Monitor the injury, and make adjustments from there. Buyer beware – if Ingram doesn’t go, don’t be surprised to see a Ty Montgomery appearance in the backfield at times. (Ingram - $8,800 or $13,200 as Captain, Jones Jr. - $600 or $900 as Captain)
WR:
Stefon Diggs (BUF) – A juicy match-up tonight for the WR9 on the season. Diggs and company go up against New Orleans 24th overall defense against wideouts. There is an opportunity tonight for Diggs to explode, and as long as Josh Allen gets back to his normal self, I say the chances are damn good. Start Diggs with all the confidence in the world tonight. ($11,800 or $17,700 as Captain)
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) – Sanders has been quiet the last 4 weeks, only scoring over 10 points in one game, while also having a goose egg in one. If there was a chance for Sanders to turn that around and have a good game, it’s tonight. Like I said, if Allen gets back to normal tonight and throws the ball around, there is a chance for a great game out of Sanders. Expect low-end WR2 with potential for a high WR2 performance tonight. ($7,400 or $11,100 as Captain)
Tre’Quan Smith (NO) – Smith has taken over the WR1 spot on the New Orleans offense, but that isn’t saying much. As the WR87 of the year, Smith is the only pass-catcher I’m interested in today for the Saints and is “break in case of emergency” play only. Buffalo has the best passing defense in the league, and I don’t see a winning formula for the Saints through the air tonight. ($5,800 or $8,700 as Captain)
TE:
Dawson Knox (BUF) – New Orleans is 9th against tight ends this season, but Knox has the chance to blow that ranking up and destroy the Saints. Even missing 2 games Knox is the TE10 on the year, and with a quarterback like Allen, he is always a threat to have a multi-score game. I think Knox gets back into the end zone tonight, and he is a great option at tight end. ($8,000 or $12,000 as Captain)
Good luck today everyone, and I hope you’re fortunate enough to spend Thanksgiving with those you love.
We will see you this weekend for the full slate breakdown!
Here’s to high floors and scores!
SKOL
- JD