JD's Start 'Em/Sit 'Em & DFS Insight: Week 8
(Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images via fanduel.com)
Week 8 started out just like we all thought it would, Green Bay going into Arizona and beating the final undefeated team in the league with neither of their top 2 wide receivers. I warned you though, you can never count out number 12. Rodgers proved that it doesn’t matter who he is throwing to, and he also proved that he held onto that connection with Randall Cobb (I tried telling you!).
We move onto the main slate of Week 8, and we are already dealing with some major injuries to key fantasy football players.
Out: Julio Jones, Miles Sanders, Eric Ebron, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Brown, and Terrace Marshall
Questionable: Saquon Barkley, Dak Prescott, Austin Ekeler, Alex Collins, and Corey Davis
Not a great way to enter the weekend if you have these players, so lets dive into the “Start/Sit” portion that could help you pivot if need be.
Must Starts:
(Photo by Adrian Kraus/Associated Press via syracuse.com)
QB:
Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs DAL – You know I’m a Vikings fan, but this isn’t why Captain Kirk is one of my picks for this section this week. I actually want to help you win, so stop it and listen up. Cousins sits as the QB14 right now in Fantasy Football, last week he blew up and had 30 points. The 2 games before that he had 13 and 10, yuck. WAIT! The first 3 games look like this: 22, 25, 25. He’s consistent, and when the Vikings have to throw the ball to win the game (almost every game this year) he puts up numbers. Then toss in the fact that Kirk absolutely excels in man coverage (91 passer rating). Why does this matter? Dallas’ secondary is man coverage, and Trevon Diggs isn’t 100%, which could mean a high flying night for Kirk Cousins. That might just win you your week on Halloween Night. ($6,200 on DK)
Josh Allen (BUF) vs MIA – After a bye week of rest, the Bills are going to march back into their stadium on Sunday and beat the living snot out of the Dolphins. Josh Allen is on fire right now, he sits at the QB8 in fantasy football, and I expect that number to climb after the game. He takes on the 28th worst defense against quarterbacks, he’s at home, he has weapons, and he can run on top of it all. Expect a monster game out of Josh Allen. His only downside, he is currently the most expensive quarterback on DraftKings right now, but if you’re going to pay up for a QB, this is the week to do it. ($8,100 on DK)
Carson Wentz (IND) vs TEN – This is a scary one solely on the fact that Tennessee somehow completely shut down the Chiefs offense a week ago. But before that, Tennessee’s passing defense has been porous, currently the 29th worst against quarterbacks. The last few weeks you’ve seen Wentz become more comfortable in the Indy system, even in a freaking hurricane last week he threw for 2 touchdowns against San Francisco, and then decided to run 1 in as well for added measure. He’s gathering a solid connection with Michael Pittman, and if T.Y. Hilton is a go, there is another weapon for him. He’s a cheap option at quarterback in DFS as well that could pay off. ($5,700 on DK)
RB:
Joe Mixon (CIN) @ NYJ – Joe Mixon and the Bengals are on the prowl (ha!), and currently sit at the top of the AFC rankings. They should stay there this week, and I think it’s because they’re going to let loose Mixon. He is in store for what could be his best game of the year, going up against the Jets who currently hold the title as worst rush defense in the league. Mixon has been pretty good all year, but he hasn’t had that blowup game you drafted him for. I’m here to tell you its this week, the Jets aren’t awful against the pass, and the Bengals will have to run, and that’s ok, because Mixon is going to capitalize. ($6,900 on DK)
James Robinson (JAX) @ SEA – Let’s face it, the Seahawks suck, and they aren’t going to get any better until Russell Wilson is back. Until then, they’ll continue to lose games, maybe not this week against the Jags, but they’re definitely going to give up some fantasy points. I think James Robinson is the player you’re looking for in this match up. The Seahawks are 31st in the league against running backs (see Alvin Kamara), and this week it’s Robinson’s turn. Unless Urban Meyer does some wacky shit like in that bar, and he completely ignores J-Rob, he could see an abundance of targets and touches. Robinson currently sits as the RB13 this year so far, and has scored a touchdown or two in each of the last 4 games. Start him. ($6,600 on DK)
Damien Harris (NE) @ LAC – My favorite running back and the must start of the week. Harris has an incredible match up against the Chargers Sunday. They are a defense that could care less about giving up rushing yards and touchdowns because they are going to stop you through the air. They make you run, which blows my mind because they suck at defending it, currently the 21st worst defense against running backs. Add in the fact Harris has excelled that last two games (17.8, and 25.3 pts) with an awful rush defense, and it could be a fun game to watch if you have Harris shares. ($6,100 on DK)
WR:
Adam Thielen (MIN) vs DAL – I will follow suit with my Kirk Cousins pick, and this could easily be Justin Jefferson too but Thielen had Dallas’ number the last time they played. The last game Thielen had 8 catches for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he was inactive the 2019 game. Positive game script for passing, and a high scoring affair is being predicted. If Cousins catches fire, Thielen will be catching balls and touchdowns. Not to mention, if Dak plays, this is going to be a good game, and the Vikings will need to move the ball down the field fast. ($5,600 on DK)
A.J. Brown (TEN) @ IND – Julio Jones has already been ruled out for the game, so where do you think Tannehill is going to throw the ball? Indy has the 25th worst defense against wide receivers, and the last two games Brown put up some numbers. Against a tough defense in Buffalo he scored 16.1, and against KC he had a massive 27.3 point game. Now he goes up against a Colts defense that LOVES to give up points to the wide receiver? Sign. Me. Up. ($6,900 on DK)
Tyreek Hill (KC) vs NYG – I think there is a genuine possibility that Tyreek does to the Giants what he did against the Eagles in week 4, and that’s explode. The Giants are another favorable matchup for wide receivers, currently 21st against them, and after the piss poor showing the Chiefs had last week, I think they come out firing on all cylinders. We could be looking at a possible thromp, and a possible 30+ point week for the Cheetah on Monday Night. ($7,500 on DK)
Sit ‘Em Down:
(Photo by Brynn Anderson/Associated Press via local10.com)
QB:
Mac Jones (NE) @ LAC – This goes hand in hand with my must start for Damien Harris. As stated before, the Chargers of L.A. have a terrible rushing defense, but a very stout passing defense. They’ve only allowed 1,211 yards to opposing quarterbacks, 2nd best in the league behind the Bills. With the Patriots rushing game starting to catch fire, led by Harris, I don’t see a huge chance for Mac Jones to be relevant this game. What I can possibly see happening for him though, is the rushing game getting them down inside the 10 and he tosses a quick touchdown to Hunter Henry (who I’ll get to later). Sit the Mac Attack this week, more chances will come and you can find a better option to up your chances at being successful in your games for week 8.
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) @ DEN – The backup turned starter Taylor Heinicke hasn’t played terribly this year, in fact he has been ok, and a decent start in a 2 QB league. This week though I’m steering clear. I actually have Heinicke in a 2 QB league, and I’m benching him this week to start an extra wide receiver. Denver scares me, and they’re phenomenal against the pass. They’re 4th best in passing touchdowns in the league (8), and with a banged up Terry McLaurin (who I’m also benching) I don’t see a positive game coming for Taylor Heinicke. They’re in Denver, which doesn’t help at all for opposing quarterbacks, and you know the McLaurin who is the obvious best target is going to be blanketed by the secondary. The only thing that could be a positive for Heinicke is his ability to run, but will it be enough? I don’t think so.
Baker Mayfield (CLE) vs PIT – I’m not sure how Baker healed so quickly, but it sounds like he is going to be getting the start. What blows my mind even more is that they’re going to throw him into a game where they face a great defense when he isn’t 100%. If they were playing a cruddy defense, sure, why the hell not. But Pittsburgh is no joke even if they have stunk on offense. They’ve allowed the sixth least amount of yardage to quarterbacks so far, and Cleveland can’t move the ball through the air the way it is. You know that their plan is to pound the rock, and you can find a much better option than Baker Mayfield this week.
RB:
Devontae Booker (NYG) @ KC – If I’m going with my initial thought of Kansas City blowing out the Giants, then that is a very negative game script for an opposing running back. That’s exactly what this should be. I see no chance for New York, but if they want to have any chance at all to make it not look like a disaster of a performance, then they’re going to have to score a lot. Their only chance is through the air, and that doesn’t add up for Booker. He won’t see a heavy workload, and I don’t think they’re going to rely on dink and dunk passes, or even screens to him to get their game going. This is a bad match up, and you should look elsewhere.
Myles Gaskin (MIA) @ BUF – To be honest, Gaskin hasn’t been awful, and he put up 31 points to Tampa, who has arguably the best rushing defense in the league. This week he takes on the Bills, and they’re another real tough matchup. But here we are again in a very possible situation of a blowout. Josh Allen is going to deal, and Tua is going to have to answer, and that won’t come from Gaskin on the ground. Put the Gas-Man on the bench, and save him for next week, where he takes on Houston and actually has a chance to help you win a week.
Mike Davis (ATL) vs CAR – Raise your hand if you had “Cordarrelle Patterson is the Atlanta RB1 on your 2021 NFL Season BINGO card.” That’s right, none of you, and me neither. Truth is though, this is Patterson’s backfield, and his flat if we are going there. He is getting all the work, and honestly if you have a better option for the remainder of the season, I think you can drop Mike Davis to the waivers and let some other desperate soul scoop him up. Because some men just like to watch the world burn.
WR:
DeVante Parker (MIA) @ BUF – As much as I really do like Tua in this matchup as a sneaky start, I don’t feel the same for his receiver. Parker still isn’t 100%, and will most likely play barring any pre-game setbacks. But, Tua has his main man Mike Gesicki who has been on a roll for tight ends, and a viable play week in and week out. Between Parker not being 100%, Buffalo having a solid defense, and Tua’s connection with Gesicki, it might be a quiet day for him.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAX) @ SEA – Well, they’re no “Legion of Boom,” but until Shenault shows me something on what you drafted him to be, I’m steering clear this week in Seattle. Yeah the match up is juicy, the Seahawks have allowed the 4th most yardage through the air, but for some reason there just isn’t that mental connection between Lawrence and Shenault. Laviska hasn’t eclipsed 18 points all season, and even if he did get 10 catches 2 weeks ago, he only had 54 yards to go with it.
Allen Robinson (CHI) vs SF – Yup, the disappointment tour continues for the old Mr. Reliable. With the mess of an offense that is the Bears, there isn’t a whole lot of upside for Allen Robinson. The targets just don’t seem to be there either, they’re going to Mooney, and that is if Fields doesn’t get sacked first. If you’re looking to start ANY Bears this weekend it isn’t going to be on the outside, it’ll be from the backfield. Here’s hoping Allen Robinson can just survive this season and sign with a team that will know how to use him next year.
Sleepers:
(Photo by Winslow Townson/Associated Press via 5newsonline.com)
Daniel Jones (NYG) @ KC – I can’t believe I just typed that name about 5 seconds ago. But here’s the situation, I’m fully expecting a blowout of a game. The Chiefs are embarrassed, pissed off, and want to show the world they aren’t falling apart. What’s that mean for Daniel “Turnover” Jones? Garbage Time. Most likely a ton of it. He’s going to be running all over trying to make plays and throwing the ball to whoever gets open. The way the Chiefs let the Titans carve them up last week, it could be a great sleeper pick in Daniel Jones. Oh yeah, he’s dirt cheap on DK as well. ($5,500 on DK)
Khalil Herbert (CHI) vs SF – Yeah, the Niners have a tough defense, but I don’t care. Did you see what Herbert did to the Tampa rushing defense that is supposedly the best in the NFL?! No big deal, just an 18 carry for 100 yard game. Then tallied on 5 catches on 5 targets for 33 yards. The week before that you ask? 19 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay. You see where I’m going? The Bears suck at throwing the ball, and it’ll be the Herbert show, and I absolutely love this kid in all formats of Fantasy and DFS this week. ($5,400 on DK)
Marquez Callaway (NO) vs TB – If there is a team that Callaway could break out against, it’s Tampa. Where Tampa struggles is against the pass, and it hasn’t gotten better (I’m not counting the Bears game). Callaway has the opportunity here to see a significant amount of targets and yardage. Plus, if the Saints are going to play keep up, they’ll need to throw the ball, because Kamara will get yardage, but won’t be ripping off 10 yard gains per carry. Start Callaway, and hope that Jameis sees this as a big enough revenge game to wreak havoc on the Bucs’ secondary. ($5,400 on DK)
Hunter Henry (NE) @ LAC – Hunter Henry has quietly be consistent so far this season at the tight end position. He has scored a touchdown of each of the last 4 games, and I think he has a solid chance to do it Sunday. The Chargers will let you run, so I see Harris and company running the field all the way down to the 10. That’s where Henry comes in, and has this season. I think you can chalk him up for 3 catches and a touchdown against a defense that is 30th against opposing tight ends. ($4,200 on DK)
Unknown Dart Throws (DFS)
(Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images via fanduel.com)
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) – If you’re looking to not spend up on a quarterback in DFS, look no further than Teddy 2 Gloves. He goes up against a defense that is 28th against opposing quarterbacks (WAS), and he might also get a weapon back in Jerry Jeudy. As much as the Broncos are probably going to use Gordon and Williams this week, I see a solid opportunity for a bounce back week from Teddy, and did I mention he’s cheap? ($5,400 on DK)
Alex Collins (SEA) – If Collins ends up starting (he’s questionable), and I think he will, he has an absolute smash start this week against Jacksonville. They’re the 6th worst defense in fantasy to opposing running backs, and I think we all know that Geno Smith sucks at quarterback. That means they’re going to lean on the rush game, and since Carson is hurt, that would be Collins leading the way. ($5,300 on DK)
Zack Moss (BUF) – Here we are again, with the narrative that Buffalo is going to annihilate Miami. They should, and will. That means they might actually run the ball the second half. Moss is the better between him and Singletary, and I think there is a solid chance he falls into the end zone this Sunday. ($5,200 on DK)
Freddie Swain (SEA) – Anyone seen Tyler Lockett? Yeah me either. We all know the story with Geno Smith, and the truth of the matter is he has no downfield ball. Metcalf’s big touchdown only happened last week because he ran for 70 of the 80 yards. So who is the short pass guy? That’d be Freddie. Throw him in as a sneaky WR3 against the 5th worst defense against receivers. “One, two, Freddie’s coming for you.” Ok sorry, but it’s Halloween weekend. ($3,200 on DK)
Zach Pascal (IND) – It took all of me to not include Michael Pittman again in my “Sleepers” section this week. But, he isn’t a sleeper anymore, he’s the Colts WR1, and will be for the rest of the season. But, bring in Pascal, who has 3 touchdowns on the year that you probably didn’t know about. Don’t forget that they go up against Tennessee, the worst passing/receiving defense in the league. There’s a solid chance Pascal finds the end zone Sunday, and if you need a cheap receiver because you’re out of budget, you can do far worse. ($4,400 on DK)
Tyler Johnson (TB) – Tom Brady is going to Tom Brady, Antonio Brown is on crutches, and Mike Evans can’t catch 3 touchdowns every game. Enter Tyler Johnson, who is going to step into the WR3 role for Tampa. Evans and Godwin will get theirs, no questions asked, but you know Brady can spread the ball faster than COVID at Sturgis. He’s sneaky, and not a sure thing, but there is definitely a possibility here that he is relevant this week against New Orleans. ($3,100 on DK)
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) – I’m going to brag a bit quick. I picked him up two weeks ago, I had a TE go down with injury and needed someone. The Bengals have been rolling so I said to myself “Sooner or later Uzomah has to join the party.” Sure enough. The last two games he’s had 6 catches for 106 yards and 3 touchdowns. Stellar. Start this guy Sunday against the Jets. ($3,700 on DK)
Tommy Sweeney (BUF) – Dawson Knox was having a break out season, and then an injury occurred. In steps Tommy Sweeney for the time being. Yeah, Sanders, Gabriel, and Beasley will get added targets. But what’s not to say that Sweeney can step into that role. If you have a loaded lineup, with very little money left over, Sweeney is an awesome dart throw on a team that is going to score a ton come Sunday. ($2,900 on DK)
Evan Engram (NYG) – Seriously James?! I know, holy shit right? Here is how I picture it. Rumors are flying that Engram gets traded by the Tuesday deadline, so why not go out with a bang in Kansas City when you are going to get your ass kicked and going against the worst defense in the league against tight ends. That means targets for Engram, probably a lot, especially with their entire wide receiver room on stretchers. Play him (if he isn’t hurt), and thank me on Tuesday. ($3,300 on DK)
Good luck this weekend everyone, and have a great Halloween!
See you next Thursday for my TNF Week 9 Breakdown!
Here’s to high floors and scores!
SKOL
- JD