JD's Start 'Em/Sit 'Em & DFS Insight: Week 10
JD’s Fantasy Football Insight (Week 10)
Well the main slate of the weekend is upon us and we already had some fireworks in the league, both on the field and off.
The Ravens got slapped by the Dolphins in Miami Thursday night, just as we all expected (woof). Julio Jones got placed back on his favorite list, the IR. Luckily, the Rams signed Odell Beckham just in time for Robert Woods to tear his ACL at practice and miss the rest of the season, impecable timing.
Then the NFL came out and said they back the absurdity that was that Monday Night penalty in which you all know I’m referring to. Yeah, an utter crock of manure if you ask me, but that is the NFL for you.
But, good things lie ahead, including today’s slate, so let’s get it.
Must Starts
Jae C. Hong - Associated Press - via boston.com
QB:
Tom Brady (TB) @ WAS – I shouldn’t have to explain myself much here. TB12 heads to Washington where their defense has been an utter and complete dumpster fire, the exact opposite of the expectation this season. As the worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks, Brady should have a fun time today, even without weapons. He finds a way to get it done, he’s the goat, and he is also the QB2 in fantasy football. So if you’re going to spend up in DFS today for a QB, Brady is the obvious choice. ($7,600 on Draft Kings)
Carson Wentz (IND) vs JAX – The NoDak boy finds himself on my “Must Start” list another week, which is surprising, but he has been fine, and he plays against a Jaguar defense that is middle of the road. T.Y. Hilton is back, and even if Michael Pittman is the WR1 on the team, adding the deep threat of Hilton only favors Wentz. As of now Wentz is the QB10 on the year, and hasn’t scored 17 points or less since week 3. ($5,900 on DK)
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs MIN – I hate putting my home town teams opposing QB on this list, but hey, the Vikes passing defense is garbage. Even if they’re only 12th against Fantasy quarterbacks, they just love to give up big plays. Its infuriating, so in lands Herbert on this list. With Keenan Allen back in the fold, him and Mike Williams should help Herbert rack up fantasy points. Herbert is the QB7 so far, and could have huge game today like Lamar Jackson did last weekend against the Vikings. ($7,300 on DK)
RB:
Dalvin Cook (MIN) @ LAC – The over/under in this game is a healthy 53 points today, and I’m telling you, pieces of this game in your fantasy and DFS line ups will help you win the week. If the Vikings passing defense is bad, consider the Chargers rushing defense putrid. The Chargers have a defense that make you run the ball because they’re so damn good at defending the pass. Which means a ton of work for Dalvin Cook. Dalvin hasn’t been very Dalviny lately, for fantasy football anyways, but today there is a solid chance you get one of those monster games from Cook you really haven’t seen this season. ($8,000 on DK)
Melvin Gordon/Javonte Williams (DEN) vs PHI – This two headed monster in Denver that they have going is an offensive coordinator’s dream. Whether Gordon or Williams is in, they’re getting positive yards and touchdowns, weekly. There is no issues starting either while the Eagles have the 30th overall defense against fantasy running backs. They’re going to get up on Philly, maybe by a lot, and then they’ll run that rock. Even if they don’t the Broncos love to run the ball, so there isn’t really a downside to this. (Gordon is $5,300 & Williams is $5,000 on DK)
Ezekiel Elliot (DAL) vs ATL – This is Zeke’s first appearance on the list this season, which is kind of a surprise considering the hype he had in the off season. Zeke has a fantastic match up against a 25th ranked Atlanta defense against fantasy running backs. After the ass kicking Dallas took last week to the Broncos, I fully expect Dak and company to come out and make the dirty birds fly home sad. They should use Zeke often, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has his best game of the season today. ($7,000 on DK)
WR:
Mike Evans (TB) @ WAS – Same story here applies as Brady. The WFT defense sucks, and this could be a fun stack in DFS today since AB isn’t playing and possibly Godwin as well (depending on warm ups). Either way, Evans is in store for a heavy workload, and you may see another one of those 10 catches for 85 yards and 3 touchdown game. Start him up in all formats. ($6,900 on DK)
Michael Pittman (IND) vs JAX – My next favorite stack today resides in Indianapolis. Michael Pittman has been on an absolute tear the last 3 weeks, scoring 4 touchdowns and 255 yards tallied. Jacksonville is the 19th ranked defense against wide receivers, and today they’ll get another workout from Wentz, Pittman, and Hilton. Expect a pretty decently high scoring game, the o/u is currently 47.5, and that means fantasy points for players. ($6,300 on DK)
Diontae Johnson (PIT) – Let’s be honest, he’s been Mr. Consistency for the last year or so, and today is no walk in the park by any means for a few reason, but you can do FAR worse than the Steelers WR1. Johnson will be without Big Ben, which might be a good thing honestly, he’s been bad. Claypool is also out, so this means more targets for Johnson. Mason Rudolph will need some help against a decent Detroit passing/receiving defense for fantasy, and I think he leans on Johnson today. ($6,800 on DK)
Sit ‘EM Down
Patrick Smith - Getty Images - via fanduel.com
QB:
Kirk Cousins (MIN) @ LAC – Until Klint Kubiak and Mike Zimmer come to their senses and start having Kirk unload to his stud receivers I’m not sure you can start him with confidence. They need to incorporate them more, and I’m not sure today that happens either against a great Charger passing defense. It’s going to be a Dalvin Cook day, and I think that in a bind he’s fine for a stream, but I don’t think Cousins shows flash today.
Jared Goff (DET) @ PIT – Hostile Steelers environment. No weapons downfield. A pour offensive scheme. I’m having a hard time finding a single thread of positivity in Goff’s game today. He’s been awful, the Lions have been awful, the match up is awful. You get the point. Good night Goff.
Mike White (NYJ) vs BUF – Mike White. What’s there to say honestly, he’s the quarterback of the Jets. That in itself is enough for you to bench him. Then today he gets a Buffalo defense that is no slouch, and very well could make White wish he was still riding the pine. They’re 1st against fantasy quarterbacks, and the Jets could be in for an absolute shellacking this afternoon.
RB:
Antonio Gibson (WAS) vs TB – This one is sad. Gibson had so much promise this season, and it has been a nightmare. If he isn’t hurt, he is getting touches taken away by two other backs. Now today they take on a stout Tampa rush defense, and a negative script is the possibility. If they’re own, Gibson won’t see the field, they’ll bring in McKissic because he is the receiving back. It isn’t good for Gibson owners, and today it won’t get any better.
Adrian Peterson (TEN) vs NO – The Saints defense on the ground is good, like real good, 3rd best in the league against fantasy backs. The Titans who were rolling with Henry lost him for most likely the year, and in steps AD. The 55 year old back doesn’t have the juice he used to, kidding he isn’t 55, but I’m not kidding about the juice. The match up is bad, and I think the Titans are going to unload through the air today, and we all know AD can’t catch the ball. I say steer clear.
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) @ ARI – Before you shit your pants because CMC is on my sit list, listen up. Until Cam comes back next week, I don’t believe in anything the Panthers are doing offensively. Arizona also has the 8th best defense to opposing running backs, and they fly to the ball fast. So even if CMC catches some screens, they might get to him before he starts to fly around. Is he fully recovered? Something else you have to look at, and see what his snap percentage is this week. Next week though, I think he’s a full blown must start.
WR:
Adam Thielen (MIN) @ LAC – See Kirk Cousins. See Klint Kubiak. See Mike Zimmer. It’s gross right now in Minny when it comes to pass catchers. The Chargers will make the Vikings run the ball, and Thielen may only have his shot at scoring good fantasy points if the Vikings make it to the red zone and they don’t decide to call an idiotic play. It’s infuriating, but I think you have to sit 19 this week.
Elijah Moore (NYJ) vs BUF – Buffalo is a problem for fantasy quarterbacks and receivers, and despite the break out last week, Moore will be moving back to the bench for 1 game. I don’t trust Mike White, and I sure as hell know that Buffalo’s defense is too damn good to let him make of fool of them. Avoid Jets players today, you’ll be better off for it.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs PHI – While the Philly defense is porous, their passing defense is fine. I don’t know if you know this, but it seems like Jeudy is the favorite target for Teddy. He has more targets than Sutton, and when Teddy 2 Gloves gets in trouble he looks to Jeudy not Sutton. I think you can find a better option than Sutton today, wait one more week to see if he gets any attention today noteworthy.
Sleepers:
Fred Vuich - Associated Press - via yorkdispatch.com
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) vs PHI – Weird to have a Denver wideout on my sit list, but have their quarterback as my sleeper right? Well, let me tell you something. Teddy is the QB14 so far this season, and has been very usable as a QB2 in a super flex. Philly has an ok passing defense, but Teddy has been good enough for that not to be a factor. I think he serves it up to Jeudy, Fant, and Patrick today, and might even run one in. ($5,500 on DK)
Leonard Fournette (TB) @ WAS – I think Tampa absolutely smashes the WFT today. I think Brady picks them apart, and then Lenny comes in to run the clock out the rest of the game. Lenny also gets involved in the passing game so its a win-win really. Fournette is the RB13 this season, and I don’t see a bad day ahead of him. ($6,100 on DK)
Marvin Jones Jr. (JAX) @ IND – A few factors for me here that helped MJJ move into my Sleepers portion. First, he faces a Colts defense that is actually bad against fantasy wideouts, 30th to be exact. Secondly, my thought here is there will be a lot of garbage points for Lawrence and company, Marvin Jones Jr. should be the main beneficiary of those. Not to mention his price is fantastic in DFS. ($5,800 on DK).
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) vs DET – “The Muth” has quietly been climbing the ranks of tight ends, and the last 3 weeks he’s been spot on. He’s scored 3 touchdowns the last 3 weeks, and with a broken wide receiver corp, and a backup quarterback, I think that he will get a substantial amount of targets today. Also, discounted pricing is perfect. ($3,900 on DK)
Unknown Dart Throws
Danny Karnik - Associated Press - via bleacherreport.com
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) @ IND – See MJJ and garbage time. I fully expect the Colts to get up on the Jags. When it’s all said and done, if you don’t want to pay up for a high quality quarterback in DFS, then Lawrence is a decent dart throw in hopes that the garbage time pays dividends. Plus, if you pay up for high end running backs and wide receivers, the discount stack of Lawrence/MJJ looks pretty solid. ($5,300 on DK)
D’Ernest Johnson (CLE) @ NE – With both Chubb and Hunt sidelined this week, Johnson gets his second start this season. It’s not a beautiful match up against a stout New England defense, but with the Browns run first, pass later mentality, he is due for a full workload today. You’re getting a starting running back, who is going to get the bulk of the work, for an extremely discounted price. What’s not to love? ($4,700 on DK)
Tony Pollard (DAL) @ ATL – Here again, I expect Dallas to crush Atlanta, and I think Zeke gets his most of the game, but Pollard doesn’t just sit on the sideline, he is very much involved. He is also a hell of a back, and hard to call a backup because he would be a starter on many NFL teams. I think he gets a nice workload today even with Zeke in there. The more points Dallas scores, the better off Pollard is getting more work to let Zeke rest. He could be a solid flex option for cheap. ($4,600 on DK)
Marquez Callaway (NO) @ TEN – There is a good chance for a touchdown when Callaway is playing good and Siemian is the quarterback. If this is a repeat of last week, Siemian throws the ball 40+ times a game, with that many passes going through the air, you bet your bottom dollar Callaway sees a lot of those. No Kamara, so most likely less rushing, and no targets his way. Look for Marquez to gain some of those. ($5,100 on DK)
Russell Gage (ATL) vs DAL – In a very possible negative game script, the Falcons are going to be throwing the ball. In steps Russell Gage, who should continue to see an uptick of targets since Calvin Ridley remains out. Patterson is always a threat to take the looks away, but I can’t imagine Matt Ryan not wanting to get the explosive Gage involved. ($5,000 on DK)
Dan Arnold (JAX) @ IND - “The Postman” is what he’s called, and this week he should be delivering some garbage time mail in the form of fantasy points. Arnold has had 12 total catches the last 2 games, and I don’t see those going down or away this week. The Jags will be playing from behind today, which means throwing the ball, which means targets. ($3,500 on DK)
O.J. Howard (TB) @ WAS – With AB, Gronk, and possibly Godwin all sidelined today, Brady is going to be spreading that ball around. Howard could be a great pick this week, as he should be a beneficiary to the out pass catchers, especially in the red zone. ($2,700 on DK)
Good luck this week, and as always, here’s to high floors and scores!
SKOL
- JD