JD’s Fantasy Football Championship Insight
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via bleacherreport.com)
Another season of fantasy football is almost in the books, can you believe it? It has been a year full of ups, downs, COVID, injuries, surprise breakouts, and everything in between.
The last two weeks have probably been the most challenging of the season without question. Of course, most of the big-name COVID cases begin to happen in the fantasy football playoffs, just how you drew it up to start the year. Hopefully, you were able to pivot in emergency situations and successfully start a player that helped you advance in the playoffs and not hinder your team’s score.
This week there are still more COVID cases going through the NFL and affecting the fantasy football championship. There are always chances more names pop up today too, so you need to be prepared to have a backup plan in place, and ready to pounce onto the waiver wire before anyone else. The waiver wire has never been more important than these last two weeks and is a proving point of why you can never stop paying attention to fantasy football.
This championship weekend might end up being a doozy as well. There are 13 NFL games slotted with a 41+ over-under, which hopefully means fantasy football points aplenty. So make sure you are looking at matchups, recent defense history against your players position, and weighing out those options for maximum effort in points for your team.
Let’s get to it, we have a big slate to go through since there were no Thursday or Saturday games, and we need to make sure you bring home that Championship!
Must Starts
QB:
Josh Allen (BUF) vs ATL – You couldn’t ask for a more favorable matchup for your QB1 in the fantasy football championship. Josh Allen and the Bills welcome the Falcons to town today, for what very well could be an absolute beat down. Allen went out last week and put up a staggering 30 point performance against arguably one of the best defenses in the league (NE) and against fantasy quarterbacks. It didn’t matter. Allen is starting to hit a rhythm, and it couldn’t have happened at a better time. Look for Allen to continue his hot streak against the 30th overall defense against fantasy gun slingers. This could be a fun one for you to watch. You’ll be paying up for Allen in DFS, as he’s the most expensive QB this week, but you may need to if you want a chance at a big payout. ($8,000 on DK)
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images via thespun.com)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) @ BAL – Coming off a disappointing performance last week against the Vikings where Stafford tossed 3 picks, he’ll look to bounce back in a big way against the very porous Baltimore secondary. Last week Joe Burrow lit them up. The Ravens have absolutely loved to do nothing but give up big plays to quarterbacks and wide receivers all season, and with the weapons Stafford has I don’t see a scenario where he repeats last week. I guess if I did have one worry for him today it would be the weather. It is supposed to be a tad windy, but I think Stafford has an arm strong enough where it won’t matter. If the winds pick way up, he will be hitting Kupp in the slot all day long. I think this is a smash start, and there is far worse options today. ($7,100 on DK)
Joe Burrow (CIN) vs KC – Even though the Kansas City defense has improved enormously since the beginning of the season, the only chance the Bengals have today is Burrow hitting his weapons for big gains. Burrow has been solid all season honestly, he currently sits as the QB8, and last week he exploded for 38 points against Baltimore with 525 yards and 4 touchdowns. If this turns out to be a shoot out and whoever punts first loses type of game, then there will be plenty of fantasy football points for Burrow to tally. It could end up being a tough task, but winning fantasy match ups is all about players catching fire, and I think you could see Burrow doing just that. ($6,900 on DK)
RB:
Jonathan Taylor (IND) vs LV – You can’t have a must start running back without who I think should win the MVP award this year in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been an absolute beast of a running back this season, both for real life football and fantasy. The far and away RB1 comes into championship weekend with another juicy match up that could very well end up sealing victories for his share holders. Last week he had a rough outing against a tough Arizona rush defense, but today he faces the Raiders, who are 30th against fantasy running backs. The best part about Taylor is that his ceiling is 53 points. 53! Now, I don’t think he hits 53 by any means, he is averaging somewhere around 28+, which is still great to see. But there is always that chance for a fantasy point explosion. Pay up for him in DFS I say. ($9,000 on DK)
Ronald Jones (TB) @ NYJ – Ronnie Jones steps in for the IR ridden Leonard Fournette for the second week in a row, and after a good performance of 16 points last week against a tough Carolina rushing defense, he looks to have a massive week against the Jets who willingly let you run the ball. There are a few other aspects that go into Jones’ favor today, one being it could be a cruddy game to throw the ball on account of high winds. Secondly, the Bucs receiving corp is depleted at this point. Tom Brady may be handing the ball off more than intended, and/or dumping the ball off in the flat to Jones. Either way, I see a possible breakout game for Jones today, and why not during the championship. ($6,300 on DK)
Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon (DEN) @ LAC – So here’s the deal, both of these guys have the opportunity to have a great game today against a crappy Chargers rushing defense. I’ve mentioned it before, the Chargers want you to run, they’re a funnel defense, meaning you aren’t passing on them and they make you run for your points. Which is fine when you have an up and coming star in Williams and a vet that won’t die in Gordon. Facing the 26th overall rushing defense against fantasy backs, and with Denver not having a serviceable quarterback, there may be some heavy workloads in store for Williams and Gordon today. (Williams - $6,400 on DK) (Gordon - $6,200 on DK)
WR:
Cooper Kupp (LAR) @ BAL – It almost seems like cheating putting Kupp here doesn’t it? He is having a historic season at the wide receiver position, and he could very well end the fantasy year with another massive game against the Ravens. Even in a “down” week last week Kupp was able to score 21 points. With big play ability, and with the Raven’s tendency to give up big plays on the regular, I don’t see a reason to not pay up for Kupp in DFS. ($9,500 on DK)
Jalen Waddle (MIA) @ TEN – Jalen Waddle has emerged in my mind as the WR1 this season for rookie wide outs, especially in fantasy football. Since week 8 Waddle has been on a path of destruction, and is turning into a PPR whore. Check this out, here is his targets since week 8 – 11, 10, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12. In those games, the least amount of points he scored was 7, and that’s because Buffalo’s passing defense is lock down. In the last 5 games he’s played he hasn’t scored less than 18 points, and today he faces the Titans, who are second to last in defenses against fantasy wide receivers. You love to see it. ($6,700 on DK)
A.J. Brown (TEN) vs MIA – It’s kind of hard to not put Brown here for a few reason this week. First, did you see his welcome back performance last week against the Niners? I’ll fill you in, 31 points. Brown had a staggering 16 targets last week, with 11 catches for 145 and a touchdown. The Dolphins have been better against the pass, but I’m going to take the talent of Brown, and the lack of weapons for the Titans over the Miami secondary. You may possibly see something similar this week as you did last, maybe not the same amount of points, but I think his target share continues to be overloaded. If that is indeed the scenario, Brown is a must start and will help win championships today. ($7,200 on DK)
Sit ‘Em Down
QB:
(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images via thejetpress.com)
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) vs PHI – Man, this has just been a disaster for Washington the last few weeks hasn’t it. Although Heinicke was out the last match up against the Eagles a few weeks ago, he came back to face the Cowboys last week, and it was pretty much a sacrificial lamb type of performance. He only completed 7 of 22 attempts, and got absolutely bullied all game. The Eagles aren’t going to let up either, they’re out for blood, and their defense has quietly been one of the best against fantasy quarterbacks this season at 10th. Steer clear, because the Football Team is a mess.
Russell Wilson (SEA) vs DET – Let’s be honest with one another here. Russ just hasn’t looked like himself ever since he had the hand injury. Since returning in week 10, Wilson has only scored 20 or more points one time. He just doesn’t look like he has the deep ball, the velocity, or the accuracy right now. Is his hand still bothering him? Has he kind of moved on from his current situation? No one really knows. But I also don’t like the idea of starting him against a Detroit defense that has been good against fantasy quarterbacks, and they seem to be firing on all cylinders at the moment. I think you could look elsewhere today.
Taysom Hill (NO) vs CAR – Since becoming the starter for New Orleans, Taysom Hill has been a fine QB2 if you have Super Flex type of league. In his 3 starts he scored 20+ in 2 of them, with a sub 10 point performance a few weeks ago against Tampa. This week he takes on a Carolina defense which seems to be the only bright spot for the team in fantasy football this season. The Panthers are 5th overall against fantasy quarterbacks, and definitely makes me feel like this week could be a problem. Hill has the ability to run, which is a benefit, but the Panthers defense has done well against runners as well.
RB:
Michael Carter (NYJ) vs TB – When healthy, Carter has been a pretty decent fantasy option this season at running back. He has only scored less than 10 points 1 time when his snap percentage is 50 or more. Other than that, he has hit the high teens consistently, and 30+ one time. This week though he takes on the Bucs who have been tough as nails against fantasy runners. Not to mention, the Jets are going to be down in this game, and probably quickly. Not a great game script for an opposing running back. Leave Carter on your bench and look elsewhere.
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) vs MIA – Foreman has emerged as the lead back for Tennessee in the absence of Derrick Henry, but last week against a middle of the road defense and a game where A.J. Brown got the spotlight Foreman was missing in action. The Titans head to Miama, where the Dolphins excel against the run game and rank 3rd against fantasy backs. The volume isn’t there for Foreman, and in what could be a game through the air, I just don’t see much positives in starting Foreman today.
Rex Burkhead (HOU) @ SF – To be completely honest with you I never imagined I’d have to put Burkhead in my fantasy football blog at all this season. But here we are, in championship week and Rexy is making an appearance. The main reason I’m putting him here is because I don’t think its a smart idea to chase the 28 points he put up against the Chargers last week. I told you what kind of defense they are, and the Niners definitely aren’t that this week. Leave Burkhead on the bench or you’ll end up a sad human at the end of the day today.
WR:
DJ Moore (CAR) @ NO – The Panthers just can’t seem to figure it out. Whether it’s Sam Darnold behind center, or Cam Newton, they just can’t seem to get into any sort of rhythm on offense. New Orleans has been bad against wide receivers this season, but I just don’t think I can trust the Panthers offense at this point. DJ Moore is without a question their WR1, and he has seen a great amount of targets, but he has failed to score more than 16 points since week 4. If you’re limited on WR’s, you may have to throw him out there, but he most definitely isn’t my first choice.
Michael Pittman (IND) vs LV – The main thing I’m looking at here is the very solid chance Jonathan Taylor takes over this game. The Raiders suck against the run, but they’re excellent against the pass. Ever since that nice stretch too for Pittman midseason he has kind of fallen off and slipped into mediocrity. He did have a nice game last week against the Cardinals, but that’s because their rush defense is stout. I think Pittman struggles again this week, even with Carson Wentz playing.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) vs PHI – See Taylor Heinicke. No but seriously, this is shaping up to be an awful fantasy match up for almost everyone involved on the Washington side of things. Terry has been a huge bust this season, and I blame Fitzpatrick getting hurt. That being said, McLaurin is without a doubt a stud receiver but they just can’t seem to get him the ball. Philly has been tough as of late, and I don’t like throwing McLaurin out there unless you’re fresh out of better options.
Sleepers:
(Photo by Christian Peterson/Getty Images via theathletic.com)
Trey Lance (SF) vs HOU – It’s finally Trey Lance time! It sounds as though Jimmy G is bound to miss this game, so in will step the rookie Trey Lance to be behind center. The upside here is Lance’s obvious ability to run the ball. I like the possibility that Lance may have to do some work with his legs, and in a Shanahan offense where he loves to have different packages for running the football, I don’t think there is a question that he will have some designed runs for Trey Lance. It could be an interesting start in Lance, and I’m all about testing him out in DFS, especially for how cheap he is. ($4,800 on DK)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) @ TEN – Tua and Waddle have something going on here, and it is fun to watch. He also gets a favorable match up in the Titans secondary, who are 28th against fantasy quarterbacks. Throw in Tua’s running capability, though he doesn’t need to do it often, and you have the possible makings of a solid quarterback performance. His price tag for DFS this week is also something I don’t plan on arguing with. ($5,800 on DK)
Rashaad Penny (SEA) vs DET – Where Detroit thrives in passing defense they suck big time against the run. Penny has the chance to absolutely go off against the 27th overall defense against fantasy backs. I think there is a chance Wilson’s struggles continue, and if that is the case their only option to get some offense rolling is going to be on the ground. Detroit is swiss cheese against backs, so I love him as a flex and a cheap DFS option. ($6,100 on DK)
Devin Singletary (BUF) vs ATL – This is a game where I’m not sure there is a bad fantasy option for Buffalo players. Atlanta stinks, I think Josh Allen goes off and they get up early, which means that Singletary could see a nice workload throughout this game, and mainly the second half. He has become their RB1, and has done a good job the last 3 weeks scoring 14, 16, and 18 points. ($5,400 on DK)
Odell Beckham Jr. (LAR) @ BAL – I said it earlier, the Baltimore Ravens defense loves giving up big plays and is not good against the pass. If there was a game where Odell does real well for the Rams its today. He’s had a touchdown in 4 of the last 5 games, and I think today he gets another, and tacks on decent yardage as well. ($5,700 on DK)
Darnell Mooney (CHI) vs NYG – The Bears have been less than ideal for fantasy football really this season, with a few flashes from Mooney, Montgomery, and Fields. Today I think Mooney has a chance to do some work against the 22nd ranked defense against fantasy wide outs, and I think the Bears win this game. They’ll need their offense to fire on all cylinders, and as the Bears WR1, he should continue to get the targets and opportunities. ($5,500 on DK)
Gerald Everett (SEA) vs DET – Everett has become a favorite target for Wilson the last 6-7 weeks, and he has had a touchdown in 3 of the last 5 games. In a position where your options are very limited, Gerald Everett is a solid play for those looking to stream. He is also a cheap option in DFS, and if the Lions key on the receivers, which they should, Everett might see a ton of targets. ($4,100 on DK)
Unknown Dart Throws
Darrel Williams (KC) @ CIN – Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been ruled out of the game, and that opens up another opportunity for Darrel Williams. The Bengals have been decent against the run, but they do tend to give up big plays to running backs who catch the ball out of the backfield. That just so happens to be Williams specialty, and he should see the bulk of the workload with Gore spelling him. I’m a big fan of Williams this week as a dart throw option at running back. ($5,800 on DK)
Jaret Patterson (WAS) vs PHI – Though it seems like a risky move, I don’t hate the idea of Jaret Patterson for a dart throw today against the Eagles. While Philly has done well against the pass, they do tend to struggle here and there against the run. Patterson will be stepping into the starting role with Antonio Gibson hitting the COVID list, and he may see a generous amount of work. ($4,800 on DK)
Tyler Johnson (TB) @ NYJ – With a depleted wide receiver room, Tyler Johnson will step in and up the depth chart against the Jets. Though I do think the Bucs main focus here will be to hand the ball off to Ronald Jones, he isn’t going to see 100% of the offensive yards to gain. Brady will have to throw the ball eventually, and with Evans and Brown questionable and banged up, Johnson may end up being a target eater today. ($3,800 on DK)
Braxton Berrios (NYJ) vs TB – Again we see a wide receiver room that is hurt and not many hands to step up. Berrios will be one of the two to see an uptick in targets today against a Tampa defense that does tend to give up points to wide receivers. With Crowder doubtful, and Elijah Moore on the COVID list, I think Berrios could be a sneaky dart toss this afternoon. ($3,700 on DK)
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) vs KC – I do think Burrow tosses the ball a ton this game, and I think Uzomah could be on the receiving end of a touchdown this week as my tight end dart throw. The Chiefs have given up 79 catches for 849 yards and 6 touchdowns this year to tight ends. That seems like a win for Uzomah, who does tend to get a bunch of targets inside the 20-yard line. ($3,300 on DK)
Well, it has been an absolute blast this season giving you my insight and predictions on who could help you win your fantasy matchups. Hopefully for the most part I did help and not the opposite. Fantasy football can be funny like that though, you can study players, tendencies, streaks, all of that and still get your predictions wrong. When it’s all said and done, these guys are human, and things go wrong, things go right, and you have to toss a lot of luck in there too.
Good luck today, and I hope you crush your opponent and bring home a 2021 Fantasy Football Championship!
I should have some insight for you next week strictly covering DFS, so make sure to stop back. But if you don’t partake in DFS, then I’ll see you for Fantasy Football Season 2022.
Here’s to high floors and scores!
Until next season,
SKOL!
- JD