Aaron Jones: RB1 In Round Two
(Photo by Evan Siegle via packers.com)
Can you smell it? The smell of draft season is approaching. Beat reporters are writing their puff pieces, fans and analysts are making wild accusations and predictions for the season, and everyone is getting excited to draft the best fantasy football team possible. There are plenty of players people are all in on. Players you’re on the fence about, and players you won’t touch.
Most of these decisions and thoughts not only come from how the season ended last season, but how their outlook appears to be for the upcoming season. One player that is being bounced around on if their worth at their current ADP (Average Draft Position) is Green Bay’s Aaron Jones.
Personally, I love the idea of taking Jones at his current ADP, which as of today (August 16th) is in the second round, normally towards the tail end. If you are looking to take a high-flying receiver in that first round like Cooper Kupp or Justin Jefferson. Maybe you’re even pulling the trigger on Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce to start your draft to lock in one of those top-tier tight ends. If that’s the case, then I’m here to tell you that Aaron Jones should be your running back to target in round two. You might happen to be one of those people on the fence about Jones, but I’m going to tell you why you shouldn’t be and you should draft him without hesitation.
I’ll start off by bringing up some points that are being addressed with AJ Dillon splitting the backfield with him this season. Everyone is nervous about Dillon taking away reps from Jones. He’s going to. I won’t blatantly lie to you, it will happen. But I don’t see it bringing down Jones’ fantasy value to the point where I don’t want him in that second round. Last season they already did that, and guess who had the better fantasy season, Jones. Jones finished the season with a 48.7% rushing share, and Dillon ended with 47.8%. Damn close. Now let’s look at their fantasy finishes. Jones finished the season (½ PPR Formats) as the RB12, and Dillon finished the season as the RB23.
(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images via dknation.draftkings.com)
Currently, Jones is being drafted right around that RB12 slot that he finished at last season. I know the Packers are claiming it’s going to be an even split, and even more passes for Dillon. I just don’t really care though. My first thought and statement is that when Aaron Jones catches the ball he turns into a different weapon. He isn’t that great of a runner in all honesty from the backfield. But when he gets into the open with the ball in stride after a catch he makes people miss. I have yet to see that with AJ Dillon. My biggest argument here for Jones is by far the catch and run.
Last season Jones took up 12.9% of the target share in Green Bay, and Dillon only took up 6.5% of it. That’s damn near twice as much as Dillon. With Davante Adams now in Las Vegas, and MVS playing ball in Kansas City, the Packers have the 5th most vacated targets in the league. Historically speaking; when a WR1 leaves a team, those vacated targets go to the RB1. That would be Jones. Davante Adams demanded 169 targets last season for Green Bay. You can’t tell me all of those are going to Lazard, Tonyan, and the two rookies. Rodgers has a good connection with Jones, and he is going to eat up those vacated targets.
As mentioned, Dillon will get his. He’s going to most likely get the bulk of the work down at the goal line, but is he really going to demand that many targets from Rodgers? Last season Dillon was targeted 37 times to Jones’ 65. Sure, they may run the ball more with Dillon this season. But in a ½ or full PPR fantasy football format, give me the back that will catch the ball out of the backfield and make people miss.
Now, why should you take Jones in the second compared to others going there like Alvin Kamara or Nick Chubb? Alvin Kamara is going to have a great season, don’t get me wrong. I have him ranked higher than Jones, to be honest, but the more I dissect this the more I want to push Jones ahead of him. Kamara ended up with the exact same amount of targets as Jones last season. The big difference between the two is his rushing capability. Kamara is a much better rusher than Jones, but Jones should have the edge on Kamara this season in receptions. Why? Give me Aaron Rodgers ten times out of ten over Jameis Winston. Winston is one of the most irresponsible quarterbacks in the league, and he likes the long ball. He isn’t going to dump it off to Kamara, he will look downfield for Michael Thomas and Chris Olave. He wants to hit the home run, not a single.
Then there’s Nick Chubb. Chubb might actually be the best pure runner in the National Football League next to Derrick Henry. He’s been nothing but consistent, and he will run through you and then outrun you. Here again is the big kicker, catching the football. Chubb was only targeted 25 times in 2021. He just doesn’t catch the ball either, on those 25 targets he just barely hit 20 catches. Remember what Jones had last season? Nearly three times that many targets and catches. With the quarterback situation in Cleveland being a disaster, and actually the whole organization in general, I don’t expect Chubb to catch more balls than last season. I love Nick Chubb, but I’d take the pass-catching upside of Aaron Jones every time.
Jones is in store for what could be a massive season. Whether you buy into the stats and facts from last season or not, there is a strong case for Jones to be drafted early in the second and not at the end. I for one would be more than comfortable with him as my RB1 if I drafted Jefferson, Kupp, Andrews, or Kelce in the first round. Just remember that there is almost always a safer floor for a running back that is going to be catching the ball. You won’t find that from Dillon. Do yourself a favor and take Aaron Jones.
SKOL
- JD