What to know before Thursday Night Football: Week 15

(Photo by Gregory Bull - Associated Press - via foxnews.com)

Well, we made it! It’s officially the 2021 Fantasy Football Playoffs, and it’s hard to believe we are already at this point. First of all, if your League doesn’t start Fantasy Playoffs this week, you’re doing it wrong. It is absolutely crucial to have your playoffs start this week. Why? When week 18 rolls around there are going to be NFL teams out there already locked into the real playoffs, and guess what, their studs (who are on your fantasy team) aren’t going to be playing. That week would be your Fantasy Championship, and you need all hands on deck, but guess what, you guys chose week 18, and you’re shooting yourself in the foot. 

It looks like we are going to have an interesting playoff this season. On Tuesday, the NFL placed 29 players on the Reserve COVID List, while 28 of them had positive tests. Last season it seemed we went almost untouched when it comes to COVID issues in the playoffs, but here we are, in the first week of them, and we have 29 players on the list already.

The biggest thing here is you have to react, and you have to react fast to these situations. Let’s use the Dolphins backfield as an example. All three of the Dolphins running backs landed on the COVID list, and it’s a guarantee someone in your league has Myles Gaskin. Now, if you’re the Gaskin shareholder, you need to get that starter that is going to fill his place or look elsewhere on waivers. But, your best bet is going to be that next man up for the Dolphins. You also have to think about your opponent. If he sees you are the Gaskin shareholder and gets the news that the running backs are in COVID protocol, you bet your ass he is hitting the waivers to scoop up the next starter you’re after in defense mode. Good fantasy team owners do that, that’s a good start to winning a week, and you have to continue to be proactive.

One thing I’m going to preach about here real fast, bye weeks. I hate bye weeks in Fantasy Playoffs. It eliminates a week of fantasy production for some teams and limits the number of teams that make the playoffs. I think they’re not needed, and am a huge advocate to get fantasy leagues to change that rule. The more the merrier in the playoffs I say.

Now let’s get to this juicy match-up of a Fantasy Football Playoff Opener. The Chiefs head to L.A. to take on the Chargers in a very nice 52.5 o/u game. This screams fantasy points with that implied point total, and let’s see if we can narrow down where you’ll find them to ensure you move on to the second round of the playoffs.

Good ole Patrick Mahomes is here to save the day for you and take you straight down your opponent’s throat to the second round of the playoffs, am I right? Honestly, I’m not too sure. The Chiefs offense hasn’t quite been the electric, fantasy football point-producing machine it was a season ago. Sure, they’ve done fine, and they torched the Raiders two times this season. But the rest of the season? Good, but not league winning. That goes for Mahomes too. Out of the 13 weeks, Mahomes has cracked 20 points 7 times. Last season he hit that mark 13 times and sat out week 18. He also hit 30+ points 5 times last year, and 3 times this season. Not terrible. But, he has scored less than 20 points 6 times this season, while only doing that twice last year. You see what I’m saying here? He isn’t the sure-fire lead your team to the fantasy championship quarterback he was a year ago, but he most likely isn’t going to ruin you either. Today he gets a Chargers defense who defend the pass much better than the run, so it might not be a sure-fire great game here for Mahomes and company. In week 2 he scored 22.9 points against them and would’ve had more if he didn’t have 2 picks. ($12,000 or $18,000 as Captain)

Last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year has been on a path of destruction since week 9. Since then, Justin Herbert has had this fantasy point line. 31.6, 12, 34.2, 19.7, 27.2, and 24.9. He is playing great football, and that very well could continue this week at home against an average to poor Kansas City secondary. Yeah, they’ve been better as of late compared to early in the season, but I will take Herbert’s hot streak over theirs. Just a side note here, but Herbert put up that 24.9 fantasy points last week without his WR1, Keenan Allen. Guess who just got activated from the COVID list to play tonight, Keenan Allen. Having him out there to catch passes only elevates Herbert’s production and confidence. The kid can huck the ball, and I’m pretty sure that touchdown pass he tossed last week hit the moon before coming back down to orbit for 6. I like Herbert’s chances tonight to score big, and I’d honestly be starting him over Mahomes in my DFS lineup, and I will be. ($10,800 or $16,200 as Captain)

A player I faded big time at the beginning of the season was Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and it’s mainly because I didn’t like what I saw last season with the usage or lack thereof he had in the offense. That fade continued, and then in week 4, he had a solid game against Philly scoring 19.4 points mainly due to 7.29 ypc and touchdown through the air. I thought there was some hope for CEH, then the injury happened week 5. After a five-week absence, and a great fill-in from Darrel Williams, CEH came back to a 50/50 timeshare with Williams. He has been ok, but had it not been for the touchdowns, he would be a bust. He only has five on the season, and I know he was hurt, but with this Chargers run-heavy defense, I don’t like CEH’s chances of finding the end zone. If they do get down there, it has been a split, with Williams finding it more often. You most likely have to start him, but just make sure your expectations aren’t through the roof. ($7,000 or $10,500 as Captain)

Let’s get to the CEH fill-in, who I have a soft spot for just because he is on my fantasy team, Darrel Williams. In CEH’s absence, Williams did well for fantasy football and is currently the RB22 overall in PPR leagues. During the absence, Williams hit 25+ points twice, and only scored 10 points or worse twice. He is very much involved in the passing game, but I just don’t know if it’ll be enough this time with the Chargers’ defense being much better at defending the pass than the run. He is only getting three targets a game, but he is catching every single one of them and is scoring fantasy points with those catches. 11, 60, and 31 are the yardage amounts through the air since CEH’s return, with a touchdown as well. I think there is a slight chance that Williams could possibly find the end zone, but I’m not entirely sure I’m willing to risk a backup running back on the Thursday night of the playoff opener. ($3,200 or $4,800 as Captain)

There is a guy on the Chargers I’d like to talk about that you may have heard of, and he is pretty damn good at this football thing. That would be Austin Ekeler. The RB2 overall in fantasy football this season, both in PPR and standard scoring has been on fire. The only guy beating him out right now is Jonathan Taylor, who should be in the MVP race. That is really good company to be in the same sentence with right now, and I think that tonight might be one of those week-winning performances from Ekeler. He has eclipsed 22+ points 7 times this season, and one of those times was in week 3 against these Chiefs. I know I know, that was a much weaker Chiefs defense at the beginning of the season. But you can’t tell me that with this being a Divisional match-up, and arguably the most important game to both of these teams this season, that they aren’t going to get their best players the ball to win. That, in the Chargers case, would be Ekeler. 6 targets, 6 receptions, 52 yards, and a touchdown through the air last time. Along with 55 yards on the ground. There isn’t much that I have found that shows me that Ekeler can’t repeat that tonight. Lock him in. ($10,200 or $15,300 as Captain)

The Cheetah is up next here for the Chiefs, and he needs to get things going this game. But I don’t think it is his fault, he just hasn’t been targeted as much as normal. Granted, he is the WR4 right now, with a few monster games, Hill has been consistent. Take out the last two games where he only had 17 total points, Hill has scored at least 20 points six times this season. In two of those performances, Hill went absolutely nuclear with 37 and 47 points. The main reason why I say he needs to get it going though is because these Chargers held him to a weak 9.7 points in week 3. As I said, the Chargers have a funnel defense that will let you run the ball, but they are going to be all over your pass catchers. If the Chiefs really want to take it to the Chargers and claim their throne in the AFC West, Mahomes and company are going to have to get the ball moving in the air. Tyreek Hill is a great starting point for that. You’re obviously starting him, you just hope he has one of those great games and not one where he ends up with 5 catches for 45 yards and 0 touchdowns. ($11,400 or $17,100 as Captain)

I’ll give Mecole Hardman an honorable mention here on the sole fact that KC is going to have to get the ball downfield, and that he is the WR2 on the team, which isn’t saying a whole lot. Hardman only has 495 yards and 1 touchdown on 45 catches this season. In the last four games, he has not seen more than 35% of snaps and hasn’t had more than two catches a game since week 9. But what Hardman can do is get behind the secondary and beat you with speed. He’s not as fast as Tyreek obviously, but people don’t give him the credit he deserves in this department. I guess my point here, is that if you need a dart throw in DFS tonight, I don’t hate tossing Hardman in that spot. ($5,000 or $7,500 as Captain)

Fresh off the COVID list is the WR11 on the season Keenan Allen. He has been practicing this week and seems like it’s all systems go for tonight. The last time he faced the Chiefs, Allen caught 8 balls for 50 yards and a touchdown, a rock-solid 18.3 points. I know that the first game isn’t everything, but since then Allen hasn’t scored less than 15 points more than 3 times. Herbert has been on fire, and slinging the ball all over, even in Allen’s absence last week. Having Keenan back in the lineup helps Herbert, and it should result in a bunch of targets for Allen. He has been one of the most reliable, and consistent wide receivers in fantasy football for a while now, and in tonight’s big game, I expect a great performance out of him. ($9,400 or $14,100 as Captain)

Big Mike Williams was on the questionable list through half of this week leading up to the game, but as of yesterday, he doesn’t have an injury designation for tonight. Williams is the WR15 on the season and has been damn near as consistent as his counterpart Keenan Allen. If you thought Allen had a good game against Kansas City last time, check out this stat line: 7 catches on 9 targets for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns. A massive performance. I’m not at all saying it’s a lock he reproduces that same kind of performance tonight, but with the way Herbert is playing, I think Mike Williams is a sure start tonight wide receiver. Having the potential of a blowup game is something that is hard to ignore with Williams, and should be in everyone’s lineup. ($7,400 or $11,100 as Captain)

It’s hard to believe it, but it feels like Travis Kelce has been a bust this season for fantasy football. Unbelievable right? He is the TE2 on the season, which hasn’t been said in the last 5 years since he has always been the TE1. I’m not saying he ends the season at that spot, in fact, I expect him to get back into the top position. But, he just hasn’t been that win-the-week player for you like he has been the last half-decade. That’s not to say he hasn’t been good though, he’s Travis freaking Kelce, he has been, he just has been a bust considering you had to use a First Round pick on him. I think that he has the chance to blow up in the playoffs, starting tonight. That would be the most Travis Kelce thing to do. Great players make plays and help win ball games, and last time he faced the Chargers he caught 7 balls for 104 yards. Start him with confidence. ($8,600 or $12,900 as Captain)

Jared Cook who has been questionable all week is set up for a nice game if he does indeed go (this is being written before official word). The Chiefs struggle against the tight end, and that could bode well for the Chargers. Cook has quietly had 11 end zone targets this season which is tied for 4th most in the league at the moment. If you want to start a tight end, starting one that gets consistent end zone targets is a great way to decide on who to put in your lineup. If Herbert keeps dealing, and Cook can find the hole in the Chiefs’ secondary, he is a good start tonight. ($5,400 or $8,100 as Captain)

Good Luck tonight everyone, I hope the start to your Fantasy Football Playoffs is filled with points, and that you can come away victorious this week to move onto round 2.

Here’s to high floors and scores.

SKOL

- JD