What to know before Thursday Night Football: Week 14

(Photo by Stephen Maturen - Getty Images - via thespun.com)

Here we are! For most, tonight is the start of the Fantasy Football Regular Season Finale! Can you believe we are already to this point? It seems like yesterday I was in my garage with the guys, drinking beer, eating burgers, and starting the smack talk before drafting our teams for this season. Now it’s December; we just had our first accumulating snowfall here in Minnesota Tuesday, now we await what sounds like another foot of the white stuff tomorrow, and we are on the brink of the postseason in Fantasy Football. 

This week is a make or break for a lot of people. Some are already locked in to the playoffs, others need a win this week to get in. The decisions you make this week will either launch you into the postseason, or send your team to the Toilet Bowl. 

So let’s get to it, and I’ll hopefully start your regular season finale off with a bang.

My Minnesota Vikings host the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight on Thursday Night Football, in what should hopefully be a game filled with fantasy points. The game comes in with a 43.5 o/u, and the Vikings are favored by 3.5 points. In case you’ve been living under a rock this season, this game will definitely come down to the last possession and probably play of the game, because that’s the only way Minnesota knows how to play this season. It has been a roller coaster of emotions, and I’m glad a National audience will get to endure the same amount of anxiety as all of us from the land of 10,000 lakes have dealt with all season.

I’ll start this off with “Big” Ben Roethlisberger, who if you haven’t noticed at all this season, is a fraction of what he used to be as an NFL quarterback. Not only for real life football, but for fantasy football as well. Ben is the QB22 on the season, and has only had two performances of more than 16 points so far. The good news is, those 2 games have come in the last 3 weeks, and if you needed Big Ben to come to life, there isn’t a better time than now with the playoffs on the brink. The other good news is Ben faces the Vikings tonight, and they just let Jared Goff put up 19.9 on them last week. The Vikings are 24th overall against fantasy quarterbacks; so if you absolutely need to stream Roethlisberger, or start him in a Super Flex League, this is the week to do it. ($9,000 or $13,500 as Captain)

Captain Kirk Cousins. Love him or hate him, the guy is a solid quarterback and he has the stats to show it. Cousins has also been completely acceptable as a starting fantasy quarterback, and is currently the QB9 on the year. In the 12 games played this season, Kirk has scored 20+ in 7 of them, and 3 of those were against top 10 defenses. Tonight, he faces Pittsburgh, who is currently ranked 13th against fantasy quarterbacks, and Cousins will be without his WR2 Adam Thielen who is out with an ankle injury. To be honest though, I don’t care because I think Kirk has been doing good enough where he will find a way to get that ball distributed. Justin Jefferson is unstoppable at the moment (I’ll get to him later), and he still has Tyler Conklin, K.J. Osborn, Dalvin Cook, and Alexander Mattison to throw to. I think Kirk has a good game, and he will have to, if he wants any hope at saving his Head Coaches’ job. ($10,400 or $15,600 as Captain)

Najee Harris has been absolutely nothing but extremely consistent and efficient this season. On a team that has struggled, Harris has found a way to just keep pounding that rock and sits as RB5 on the season. He is an absolute workhorse, and is doing exactly what the Steelers drafted him to do. On average for the entire season, Harris sees 24 opportunities a game, whether it be through the air or on the ground. That is a huge number in a sports league where there are so many split backfields and packages run. That alone makes him a locked in start weekly. You can’t not like this guy either. He gives it his all on every play, and turns what looks like it is going to be a stop in the backfield into a hard earned 4 yard gain. The Vikings struggle here too, and that’s great news if you’re a Harris shareholder. They aren’t as bad as they are against the pass, but I like Harris’ talent over the Vikings' injured defensive line’s talent. Fire up Harris, who I think could end up having a massive game. ($10,000 or $15,000 as Captain)

Dalvin Cook is a serious decision you’re forced to make tonight for your starting lineup. Dalvin Cook wasn’t even supposed to be an option until this morning when the team decided to announce that Cook has passed all the tests he needs to in order to make the start tonight. Everyone assumed Cook would sit one more week, but just 11 days after dislocating a shoulder, it sounds like Cook is going to play unless a warm-up setback happens. I honestly don’t trust this. I just don’t know how someone is able to play this shortly after what seemed to be a pretty bad injury. The issue though, is if you are a Cook owner, you might not have a better option at running back and Dalvin’s status looks inviting. However – the last 4 weeks Pittsburgh has literally been the worst defense against running backs. Even if Dalvin doesn’t get a full workload, you could still get enough points out of him to not hurt your team. ($10,800 or $16,200 as Captain)

Here is the deal with Alexander Mattison, I think I’m perfectly fine starting him even with the announcement concerning Cook this morning. Truth is, if Dalvin plays, there is a big risk that he re-injures himself and has to leave the game. There is also the high probability that Cook’s touches are limited to certain play packages and/or drives. I think you can start Mattison tonight, but I’m telling you now that I am hopeful you have a backup plan, and options in case you aren’t 100% on board with this. The upside for Mattison is great, especially if Dalvin does end up sitting or something bad happens to him in the game. It’s a huge risk/reward situation on Thursday Night Football, and I’m extremely happy I don’t have to make this call. ($9,800 or $14,700 as Captain)

It’s pretty easy to say that the season Chase Claypool has been having is not what you drafted him to do at the beginning of this year. He has only had 1 game over 20 points (week 5), and he has only scored 1 touchdown. Yuck. BUT, yes there is a but for Chase tonight. Big Ben has looked better the last few weeks, and tonight they play the Vikings, who don’t feel regret it seems for letting wide receivers make big plays. If there was a chance for a Chase Claypool breakout type game, I would throw my chips in tonight in Minnesota. He’s a solid flex start tonight. ($7,400 or $11,100 as Captain)

I’d be lying to you if I didn’t say I absolutely love Diontae Johnson. I do. I said at the start of the season he would without a doubt be the Steelers WR1 after the season ended, and he will be, because Claypool is far behind. Not only that, but Johnson is the overall WR7 on the year. That shouldn’t change a lick after tonight. You already know the Vikings secondary is bad, but throw in a wide receiver who averages at least 11 targets a game, nearly 8 catches a game, and you have the making of another monster showing tonight. There is no scenario where you bench Johnson going forward. Hit that auto start button. ($10,200 or $15,300 as Captain)

JJ. Jettas. The real Offensive Rookie of the Year from last season. Justin Jefferson continues to put on a clinic. The WR2 overall in fantasy football takes on the 21st overall defense against fantasy wide receivers tonight, and it might just be a “who can catch more balls” contest between him and Johnson for 3 hours. I mean I’m 100% ok with that, because that means a boat load of fantasy points. I do think Jefferson continues his terror on secondaries this evening. People thought Thielen leaving in the first quarter last week would hurt JJ because they would be all over him. WRONG. Jefferson caught 11 balls on 14 targets, and finished with 182 yards and a touchdown. Damn near perfection. This guy is the real deal, and is also your trigger to smash that auto start button. ($11,000 or $16,500 as Captain)

This is where I’m a bit interested to see the outcome. I’m not 100% sold on starting K.J. Osborn in the absence of Thielen, but I definitely think the guy is going to get targets and opportunities. You would think the Steelers are going to blanket JJ, which means that there has to be holes for Osborn to get open. Right? Well, I’m hoping so, because I think he could be a sneaky little DFS start in your lineup to help you bust through the ranks to make some money. I don’t think there is a huge ceiling here for Osborn, but he is able to get open downfield, as you saw in the Cardinals game. If I’m betting on either Osborn or Pittsburgh’s WR3 James Washington to score tonight, I think it’s Osborn, who will have a better game plan and uptick in production minus Thielen. ($5,600 or $8,400 as Captain)

Pat Freiermuth was someone I thought for sure would break out in the second half of this season. He has all the tools, he was getting looks from Big Ben on the regular, and he was finding the endzone. He scored a touchdown in 4 of 5 games from weeks 8-12. Last week he was quiet against Baltimore, who is bad against tight ends. Tonight he plays a much tougher defense against tight ends in the Vikings, but they just gave up 2 touchdowns last week to Detroit’s tight ends. I think there is a chance for redemption tonight for Freiermuth, and I think you can start him and be confident, especially in the very inconsistent pool that is tight ends. ($6,600 or $9,900 as Captain)

Conklin. Not only will Osborn see an uptick with the absence of Thielen, but it’s pretty obvious to say Conklin will as well. Last week he saw 9 targets, caught 7 balls, and had 56 yards receiving. I’d be a fool to say that he is a bad start tonight. Kirk is going to have to distribute, and he will have to look somewhere else at certain times when JJ is covered (maybe). He only has 3 touchdowns on the year, and they’re in weeks 3 and 10. Now, I’m not saying he is a must start, because that just isn’t true, but there is a chance he finds the end zone, a small one, but like I said, the tight end pool stinks. ($6,200 or $9,300 as Captain)

Good luck tonight in the start of your Fantasy Football regular season finale! 

I hope you make the right decisions, especially if you’re wrestling with the Dalvin Cook fiasco. 

Make sure you nestle in, because if I know my Vikings (and I do), this is going to be an absolute anxiety driven football game that comes down to the last second.

Here’s to high floors and scores!

Steelers 27, Vikings 28 (on a game winning drive – just sayin’)

SKOL

- JD