What to Know Ahead of Thursday Night Football : CINvsJAX

(Getty Images via cbssports)

Anyone else feel like those first 3 weeks of the 2021 NFL Season flew by? Yeah, me too. After a week of another slate of great games, we move on to week 4, which begins with the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) heading to Cincy to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals (2-1) Thursday Night.

The Joe Burrow “Comeback Player of the Year” Campaign continues at home, where a struggling Jacksonville team will do all they can to slow him and the rest of the offense down, which has been performing better than expectations so far. 

It’s a small fantasy football miracle that Joe Mixon is performing the way he is and hasn’t gotten hurt yet (knock on wood). As a former Mixon shareholder for a couple years and who didn’t draft him at all in any of my leagues this year, I hope he continues to do well for you, because I never got to feel that.

Apparently Ja’Marr Chase took some acting lessons while he opted out last season at LSU, because from all the camp reports, it seemed like Chase was going to struggle catching the ball. After 3 games he’s been fantastic, and if he keeps it up, he may just find himself in the offensive rookie of the year conversation.

Then there’s the Jaguars. I tried tell you all to be patient with Trevor Lawrence in my Rookie Quarterbacks blog before the season started. Rookie quarterback, struggling franchise, new head coach; not a great recipe for a successful first season. But, the bright side is, it can only go up from here right? It just might take a while and longer than Jags fans want it to.

That’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom for Jacksonville. James Robinson had a great game last week, and both Marvin Jones Jr. and D.J. Chark have almost 200 yards each the first 3 games. Their time will come, eventually.

Lets dive into the match up now, and talk what you came here for, fantasy football and DFS outlook.

The Bengals as of right now are 7.5 point favorites, with a 46 point o/u. That lands the Bengals at about 27 points scored and 19 for the Jags, meaning there is a some touchdowns to go around for Cincy if this holds true.

Joe Mixon at the moment is averaging 95 yards per game, with a grand total of 286 rushing yards this season. That total puts him 2nd in the league, only behind the King, Derrick Henry. Although the Jaguars rank in the middle of the pack for rushing yards allowed, there is so much volume going Mixon’s way that you can’t look another direction. He’s been great, and will continue to be great Thursday Night.

Burrow has the chance to really show everyone that he is fully healed and is the real deal in prime time. The Jaguars are exactly in the middle of the pack as far as passing defense goes, and right now he is the QB19 in fantasy football. At the moment, he is only averaging 15 fantasy points per game, but I think there’s a decent chance for him to hit the mid 20’s this game. You have to remember the defenses he faced the last 2 games. He only scored 10 against Chicago, and 17 against the Steelers, while also throwing 4 picks total in those 2 games. Lock him in, and look for what will be his best game of the season so far.

Let’s get to the wide receivers of the Bengals, who have over achieved so far this season in my eyes. Ja’Marr Chase has 11 catches on 16 targets for 220 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first 3 games, and sits as the WR11 in PPR Leagues. Tyler Boyd has 14 catches on 19 targets for 141 yards and a TD, and is not going to slow down with the injury to Tee Higgins who will not see the field. You can expect the targets to increase big time for both of these two, but also keep in mind that Chase is the deep threat, so they may focus more on Boyd in the slot and across the middle if they can’t get that deep ball often enough. Start both with full confidence.

I won’t say much about it, but I would be playing the Bengals defense without any hesitation tonight in DFS and in normal Fantasy Football Leagues.

The Jaguars. I’ll make this short and sweet for the most part. You can’t start Trevor Lawrence, he has 7 interceptions so far this season, in 3 games, and the Bengals aren’t going to go lightly and may end up with a few more tonight. I don’t see a situation where your fantasy team or DFS lineup benefits at all with starting him at the quarterback position.

James Robinson is interesting, he is going to get touches, my guess would be between 10-15, and that may be all that it takes. But he is going to have to capitalize on those touches, and get into the end zone to make it worth while, which he did last week. He did also get 6 catches last week which was nice to see for 46 yards, but there is a few things that make me nervous. One is his snap percentage, which has gone down to 59%. You know who is getting those other touches? That pesky Carlos Hyde, who actually had 8 carries last week for 44 yards with a 5.5 yard average. That’s not terrible, so just be aware that you may end up seeing more of Hyde (who could be a nice dart throw in DFS) than you’d like to tonight.

I’m going to bunch Marvin Jones Jr., and D.J. Chark together here since they’re the leading receivers. These two have the best chance to score on the Bengals defense, but it really determines how well Lawrence throws tonight. I can see MJJ having the better game, and I’m sorry but I just don’t trust Chark enough to throw him in my lineup, and the same goes for Laviska Shenault. Shenault has a chance to be great, but not when they’re throwing him the ball at the line of scrimmage and expect him to always break away because he’s electric, kind of like the Jaguars version of Cordarelle Patterson. If he somehow gets in the end zone tonight, it’s because there is a broken coverage at the goal line and he scores on a 4 yard catch.

So, to sum it all up for tonight; start your Bengals, and be careful who you choose to start for the Jaguars. I think there is a chance that Cincy runs away with this and wins by two touchdowns.

Happy Thursday!

SKOL

- JD