Things To Know Before Thursday Night: Week 7
(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images via denverfan.com)
Hey Fantasy Football scoundrels, I’m back! While I was away for 2 weeks getting hitched and visiting Florida with my family, I left you guys high and dry to make your own decisions without my tiny bit of insight. For all I know you probably went 2-0 and crushed your opponents, and to that I say cheers! I’m proud of you, and if you didn’t, well then I’m disappointed in you for being a loser. Either which way, I’m back; ready to pound out Fantasy Football insight, and get you back into that winners column, or continue your reign of terror on the rest of your leagues. So let’s get this train chugging.
We have a match up for the ages tonight (not really). But we do have a match up that contains two former starting Vikings quarterbacks; not that you care, but some of my fellow SKOL Nation fans will (I don’t). It’s Teddy Bridgewater V Case Keenum on TNF in what I’m going to call the “Former Vikings QB Toilet Bowl.” It’s not that I didn’t like these two, I did, I just don’t have the sentiment some of these clingy Vikings fans have towards these two. They’re journeyman quarterbacks, they’re not franchise quarterbacks, they never will be, and the Vikings did the right thing by moving on. Whew, I feel better, end rant.
On the more fantasy analytical side of things, we do have a game tonight that I feel is going to be very heavy on the defensive side. Both the Broncos and the Browns have great defenses, and mediocre offenses. Which to me is a mathematical equation for a boring game. According to PFF the Browns have the number 2 defense against fantasy players, and the Broncos have the number 14 defense. In my mind, the Broncos have a much better defense than the Browns, but I don’t work for PFF, so that’s just my narrative. But it doesn’t matter, I see this going in the direction of a slow grind, that could honestly come down to “whoever screws up first loses” type of game, and will be ended because of one big play allowed but a blown coverage. Let’s talk players.
Baker Mayfield is out, which brings in Case Keenum, and in fantasy football Case is playable in an emergency situation. This week may be one of those emergency situations, because in the fantasy football world it is indeed the “Byepocalypse.” SO MANY teams with fantasy relevant players are on “Bye,” and its putting a ton of fantasy managers in more dart throw situations than they normally wouldn’t have to deal with. I don’t like the match up against Denver, who is currently the number 8 overall fantasy football defense in a ½ PPR format. They have 14 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 4 interceptions. Keenum is coming in tonight without his WR1 (OBJ), his RB1 and RB2, and has to stare down that defense. He does get Jarvis Landry back, which should help, but I think he struggles tonight. He does have the ability to scramble, but he is up against a fast defense. My opinion, but I’d avoid him if at all possible tonight.
Teddy 2 Gloves comes into a Thursday night game with a little better of a match up. The Browns are the 19th ranked defense in that same fantasy format, and they have allowed the 3rd most passing touchdowns (14) in the league so far, but I do worry a bit about his injury. According to Denver his foot is fine, but with a Browns defense that has 18 sacks so far this season, I worry about his escapability out of the pocket to scramble and make a play. Which also has me worried about the re-injury probability. I’m not saying to sit Bridgewater, in fact I think he’s a far superior play tonight than Keenum, but I’m not starting him with the utmost confidence (and I have to in a league). We are in the “Byepocalypse,” and you could do worse than ole Teddy 2 Gloves, just don’t expect a monster game.
No Chubb or Hunt tonight for Cleveland either. Ouch. That means D’Ernest Johnson gets the start. A guy who is going to be in a lot of people’s lineups. A guy who hasn’t seen a lot of playing time in his career. A guy who is looking for his first NFL TD. You get the point? I’m not saying it won’t happen against the 4th best rushing defense in the league, but I’m also not not saying that. I don’t have high, if any expectations for him. He will get volume, but he will also most likely spell a couple of carries and opportunities to fellow backup Demetric Felton. Cleveland has been a 2 headed monster at running back for a while now, and why would they stop now? Just don’t expect a good game, Denver is tough against the run, if you’re able, look elsewhere.
Melvin Gordon & Javonte Williams find themselves in a similar situation as far as tough rush defenses go. The Browns are the 6th best in the league against runners, not to mention they’ve also forced 4 fumbles this year so far. Gordon and Williams will split time, as they have been, and in different situations. As much as I’m a Melvin Gordon apologist and believer, I think Williams has the better game. It’s no doubt that Williams is the future, and he has looked great so far this season when the ball is in his hands. I think they’re going to try to pound the rock with Gordon, and then bring in Williams to attempt some big splash plays in the run game. Like I said, I fully believe a ground and pound boring game lies ahead, and if I had to pick running backs to start in this defensive match up, I’m going with the 2 Broncos.
With no OBJ, we get to come back to the land of Donovan Peoples-Jones as the WR1. Oh wait! Jarvis Landry was activated today and is going to start tonight. Well, not sure I care honestly. With the Denver defense going to be getting after Case Keenum, and only allowing 7 TD’s through the air in 6 games I don’t see either being a successful starting fantasy option. Sure, you could start Landry in a PPR format, because I think he will get his targets coming across the middle in the short yardage game. But I’m not expecting much, if anything out of DPJ. He is the deep threat, and the Broncos don’t give up deep tosses. He needs to catch a touchdown to be relevant tonight, and I don’t see it happening. If I’m picking one, I’m rolling with Landry, and pray he gets peppered with targets.
There is some upside to the Broncos receivers coming in to tonight’s game. It’s going to be the Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick show, and sprinkle in some Noah Fant who will in fact play tonight. Sutton is averaging almost 9 targets a game, while the last 3 games went like this; 14 targets, 11 targets, and 8 targets. He is going to get his, and I absolutely love him in a game with a pretty decent defense. The Browns defense’s hiccup you ask, they have allowed 14 touchdowns through the air this season as stated prior.
Timothy Patrick. Honestly, one of the most underrated and under appreciated fantasy wide outs right now. He has 3 touchdowns on the season, is playing 90% of snaps, and is going to get you at least 10 points per game. It’s almost a guarentee. In a “Byepocalypse” week where players are thin, you could do FAR worse for a WR3 or even a FLEX. I think he scores tonight, and is my favorite dart throw in tonight’s DFS games.
Fant is going to get targets too, especially with Jeudy still sidelined. He is scoring a TD every other week as of now, and you could have a worse situation on your fantasy team at the tight end position. I say start him, especially in DFS.
In short, expect a slow grind of a game, but I do love the upside to the big play chances for Denver’s wide receivers. I think that Denver wins it by a touchdown, and that touchdown coming from Courtland Sutton breaking free on a blown Cleveland coverage.
Broncos 20, Browns 13
SKOL
- JD