Super Wild Card Saturday DFS Picks
Syndication The Enquirer Photo - via pff.com
The NFL Playoffs have arrived! Your regular fantasy football season is over, you’ve crowned your Champion, and you have made arrangements for the loser in your league to endure their punishment. Well, now what do you do? It’s simple, playoff football DFS.
This is where it gets to be interesting, not only in real life football, but DFS as well. It’s the real playoffs for the NFL, and you just never know who is going to step up. You have your eyes set on those stud players, and rightfully so. But, you also have to think about some other factors heading into your DFS picks this weekend. Who’s on a hot streak (both as teams and players), who has been struggling, who needs to have a big game in order for their team to win? All factors you need to think about today, tomorrow, and the rest of the playoffs.
I’m going to look at today’s games, break down notable players, and tell you who I like going into DFS match ups this afternoon. These break downs will as always be in the “Showdown Captain Mode” of DFS, so you’ll get two prices, one for said player as the Captain, and one as a utility. It will then be up to you to plug and play as you please to stay under the salary cap. (All prices via Draft Kings)
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) vs Las Vegas Raiders – 3:30p Central (o/u 48.5)
Andy Lyons Getty Images - via bleacherreport.com
JD’s Score Prediction: Cincinnati 32 – Las Vegas 17
Derek Carr (LV) – Carr had an up and down season with the Raiders, and a lot of that had to do with them not having any receivers outside of Renfrow. The last 6 games Carr hasn’t scored more than 15 fantasy points, and 4 of the last 6 games scoring 10 or less. Not a great streak to enter the playoffs and not really someone I’m looking for in DFS. However, if the Raiders want to have a chance today against the high powered Bengals, Carr is going to have to try to make something happen through the air. However, I’ll be steering clear. ($9,600 or $14,400 as Captain)
Joe Burrow (CIN) – The King of Ohio has been on a tear the last two games he played, he didn’t play in week 18. In weeks 16 and 17, during the fantasy football playoffs Burrow put up points of 38.1 and 34.8, and owners loved it. I think Burrow and the Bengals continue the hot play, continue to hit the big chunk plays, and will beat the Raiders handily today. He just has way too many weapons for the Raiders defense to cover, and one of the 3 wide receivers are going to have a nice game. If you’re selecting a quarterback today in DFS for Captain mode or for the main slate game today, Burrow is the best option. ($11,000 or $16,500 as Captain)
Josh Jacobs (LV) – Jacobs had a decent season in fantasy football, but really didn’t come alive and have those big performances you were hoping for. Although he did post a top 5 finish last week, it was only the second time he did that this season. Jacobs finished as the RB12, and today he will have the opportunity to have a nice game. The Bengals have a bottom half defense in rankings, and even though they’ve been playing much better Jacobs will need to be involved today. I could see Jacobs get involved in the pass game to take away blitz’s and pressure on Carr, and if that is the case, his fantasy numbers today will be nicely padded by receptions. ($9,000 or $13,500 as Captain)
Joe Mixon (CIN) – The last time the Bengals played the Raiders Joe Mixon had a hell of a game. He scored 24.3 points from 123 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. Now today you can bet that the Raiders are going to do everything they can to make sure that doesn’t happen again. They have been doing better against the run, but they’re still bottom half by every means of the word. I think Mixon has another nice game, but I don’t think he has the same numbers solely to fact that Burrow has been on fire with his pass catchers and I think that continues. Although, if this turns into a blow out, Mixon will be spoon fed in the second half. ($10,400 or $15,600 as Captain)
Hunter Renfrow (LV) – I don’t really have anything negative to say here about Renfrow, other than the fact he might get blanketed today by the Bengals corners. To be 100% honest with you though, I could care less. He is their prime weapon right now, even ahead of Waller in my opinion. If you read my awards blog you’d know that Renfrow finished as the WR11 this season in fantasy football, and that’s because he is an absolute PPR magnet. He is Carr’s primary right now, and like I said, if they want any chance at winning today, they need big plays to happen through the air. You’re starting Renfrow no matter what in any game format, and might actually be a solid Captain option. He’s dirt cheap too somehow. ($8,400 or $12,600 as Captain)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Out of the 3 Bengals receivers Boyd is my least favorite today, although I’m not sure that means much anymore with how this offense is playing. Even as the WR3 on the team, Boyd hasn’t scored less than 13 points the last 3 games. This offense is clicking, and you want pieces in your lineup. Boyd will get catches, and I think he is a solid flex option today against the Raiders. ($5,600 or $8,400 as Captain)
Tee Higgins (CIN) – Well if Ja’Marr Chase isn’t having monster games, than its their WR2 Tee Higgins. Higgins went off in week 16 against the Ravens tallying up 43.4 fantasy points. Today I can see the Raiders keying in on Chase a bit more in light of recent blow up games, and that might mean more targets for Higgins. Either way, I don’t think he is a bad play no matter the scenario, and I would be comfortably happy with him as a WR2 today. ($7,600 or $11,400 as Captain)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) – My Fantasy Football Rookie of the Year, and it wasn’t close honestly. Chase has been on fire with former and current team mate Joe Burrow. The last 3 out of 5 games played he has scored at least 19 points and had a monster game of 55.6 points. Stunning stuff. The connection between him and Burrow is real, and it won’t go away any time soon. My only concern today, and it’s small, is that they key on Chase. But the way he is making contested catches I’m not sure it entirely matters. You’re starting him, and if you’re willing to spend up on receivers as captain, he’s your guy for the Bengals side. ($11,600 or $17,400 as Captain)
Darren Waller (LV) – Waller returned last week from injury and managed to play 78% of snaps. On that snap count percentage he put up 4 points off of 2 catches. The good news here is that Waller did have 9 targets but they failed miserably to complete most of them. I think that will have to change today. They can’t fully rely on Renfrow through the air, they’ll need their stud tight end. I think you can safely play Waller in flex/utility position today. ($7,000 or $10,500 as Captain)
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) – If you’re nervous about Uzomah because of the “Too many mouths to feed” theory of fantasy football I agree with you to a certain extent. I do because the Bengals have so many weapons and sometimes the tight end can be a major after thought. I don’t because in big games when your star players draw in more attention you need other players to step up. I think Uzomah is a sneaky play today in DFS, and I’ll show you why. 6, 7, 4, 6, 6 – These are his targets the last 5 games, and a majority of those come in the red zone. If Uzomah can turn even one of those into pay dirt, you’ll sit nicely. But, there’s a lot of ifs and buts to think about, and a lot things need to go his way for it to happen. ($5,200 or $7,800 as Captain)
Buffalo Bills (-5) vs New England Patriots – 7:15p Central (o/u 44)
Omar Rawlings Getty Images - via thebiglead.com
JD’s Score Prediction: Buffalo 21 – New England 24
Josh Allen (BUF) – If not for the tear that Joe Burrow has been on the last few weeks of play Josh Allen would be my number 1 quarterback to draft today for DFS. Yeah, Allen has been awesome as well, scoring 23.8, 20.9, and 30.9 the last 3 weeks. But today he faces an all too familiar foe in the Patriots, and by the third time of play between these two teams, you better believe that old Uncle Bill is going to have a defensive plan to slow Allen down. Now, I’m not saying he isn’t going to have a good game, by all means I’m not. I think Allen does enough today to give you enough points to not hurt you, but I don’t know if he has the explosive game against them he did the last time around. I just like Burrow’s odds today for a bigger game than Allen, and Burrow is much cheaper. ($12,800 or $19,200 as Captain)
Mac Jones (NE) – Easily the least flashy quarterback in today’s post season games, and one that doesn’t have to do a hell of a lot for the Patriots to have success. Mac Jones gets his first career playoff start today, and I think Bill will have a game plan for him that will make it easier and less stressful. The Patriots rely heavily on their defense and running game to control scripts and win. Today, I don’t see that formula changing at all. I don’t like the thought of starting Mac today, and not because he isn’t good, because he had a great rookie season. But the fact is the Patriots are going to run the ball, rely on defensive stops and turnovers, and Mac won’t lighting up the scoreboard. He’s a good quarterback, but not a DFS option I want today. ($8,800 or $13,200 as Captain)
Devin Singletary (BUF) – In what seemed to be one of he messiest backfields at the beginning of the season, Buffalo finally found their RB1 in week 14. Since then, Devin Singletary hasn’t scored less than 14 points in a game, and scored 23 or more twice. New England’s defense is great, but where they do give up points is the running back, and last time Singletary scored on the. He didn’t have many yards, but what got him over that 10 points hump was all the receptions (5). If they use Singletary like that again he could be ok, but I’m afraid that he is going to be touchdown dependent this afternoon. ($9,600 or $14,400 as Captain)
Damien Harris (NE) – PFF’s highest graded running back comes into tonight’s game as questionable but is expected to play. Harris has had his way with Buffalo the last two games, and I expect that to continue tonight. In 2 games against Buffalo Harris has scored 17 points (left the game before half), and 28 points. In those 2 games he has 4 touchdowns, and 224 yards on the ground. I fully expect the Patriots to again rely on Harris to get the rush game going, control the clock, and beat this Buffalo defense. ($10,400 or $15,600 as Captain)
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – Stevenson can’t be left out here, because with how often Harris gets hurt, Stevenson comes in and dominates after. Depending on how Harris does, and how the game script goes Stevenson may or may not be a viable play. Although there may be instances where Uncle Bill has plays drawn up just for Stevenson, or entire drives for that matter. All I know is that he is no slouch, and can easily break one off, or pound a tired defense and fall into the end zone. I say tonight he is touchdown dependent, but you just never know with this running back room who is going to get hurt, and who gets the carries period. ($5,000 or $7,500 as Captain)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) – In two games this season against New England, Diggs has been fine. The first game (9 points) I’m not counting because it was a blizzard, and the second game he put up 21 points. There’s no question he is the number 1 target, and he will get his, especially since seeing the last game against the Patriots he brought in 7 catches on 13 targets. The defense will try to be keying on him, but with Diggs’ elite route running ability I’m not sure it’s going to matter. ($10,600 or $15,900 as Captain)
Cole Beasley (BUF) – Although it was a quiet season for Beasley, it was a quiet year for his counterpart Emmanuel Sanders as well. Neither have done a lot the last 6 weeks, and Beasley only scored over 7.5 points once. But someone is going to have to try to get open because Allen won’t be able to hit Diggs every time. Look for Beasley to be used in the slot and on third downs. Other than that, I’m not into it. ($6,400 or $9,600 as Captain)
Gabriel Davis (BUF) – If I’m looking for a Buffalo receiver to put in my DFS lineup who isn’t named Stefon Diggs, it is Gabriel Davis. He has had some flashes of greatness the last 5 weeks, and even though he didn’t play against the Patriots this last game, he did score a touchdown on them in the Blizzard game. He seems to be getting more looks and confidence from Allen, and last game he had a total of 14 targets. I like what I’ve seen and if I am looking for a sneaky player that could score in DFS, it is without a doubt Davis. ($4,400 or $6,600 as Captain)
Jakobi Meyers (NE) – Meyers is officially questionable tonight, but I think he plays. The Patriots will need him, and Mac will too. Meyers scored 15.9 points against the Bills in the week 16 match up, and was somehow able to expose that tough secondary with 8 targets and 6 catches. I don’t expect a monster game out of him tonight, but if someone from the Patriots has a chance to put up numbers for your through the air, I think Meyers is the guy. ($7,400 or $11,100 as Captain)
Kendrick Bourne (NE) – Bourne has had an interesting season to be honest with you. He hasn’t been consistent enough to be on your normal fantasy team, but he has had some big games where you wish you had him. He has the ability to make that big splash play, and I think that’s why the Patriots like him so much. That doesn’t happen often, but Bourne does have the ability to get behind the defense and take one to the house from 60 yards out. He’s a shot in the dark dart throw, but at a price like this, he may pan out if he can score. ($5,200 or $7,800 as Captain)
Dawson Knox (BUF) – Dawson Knox may be one of the best up and coming fantasy tight ends right now. He has shown some major flashes in the pan of greatness, and when him and Allen are in sync it is a lot of fun. However, you definitely get those games where he disappears and/or doesn’t do much. So really, it is a 50/50 chance right now on which Knox shows up tonight. I will say this; in 2 games against New England he has scored a total of 12.5 points, coming from 4 catches, 25 yards, and 1 touchdown. So my gut says if he isn’t scoring a touchdown tonight he isn’t worth it. Will the coin flip land in your favor? ($6,600 or $9,900 as Captain)
Hunter Henry (NE) – I’m going to be honest with you, picking between Knox and Henry was harder than I thought today. I really like Henry’s chances today for some reason on a bigger game and will be putting him in my lineup as opposed to Knox. It’s crazy, because his numbers were terrible the last game against Buffalo with only 1 catch for 9 yards on 6 targets. But I think the game script tonight might be more in Henry’s favor. They like him in the red zone, and you know they are going to try to run the ball. But once they get down inside the 10 those Bills are going to be on Harris and Stevenson full boar, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henry get one of those red zone touchdowns tonight. It’s not a smash play, but it’s one that I’m rolling with. ($6,200 or $9,300 as Captain)
Good luck today in post season DFS games, I’ll see you tomorrow for the next slate!
Here’s to high floors and scores!
SKOL
- JD