JD's Fantasy Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Week 4
(Photo by Alika Jenner / Getty Images via 4for4.com)
It truly is hard to believe that we are already in week 4 of the 2021 NFL season, and there has been no shortage of excitement thus far. There’s been ups and downs for a lot of teams, a lot of ups for many, and a lot of downs for some.
Justin Fields made his debut as a starter for the Bears and might have actually imploded. The Browns had their way with him, and he most definitely looked like a rookie quarterback. Justin Tucker was a hero in Detroit for the Ravens, nailing a 66 yard field goal to win the game, while also setting the record for the longest field goal in NFL history. The Rams took care of Brady and the Bucs, and showed the NFL that they’re not afraid of anyone, and might actually be the best team in the league, and the Super Bowl favorite after 3 weeks.
Let's look ahead, and see what our games this week have to offer in my Fantasy Football and DFS outlook for week 4.
Must Starts:
(Photo by Chris Szalola, Associated Press via nj,com)
QB:
Taylor Heinicke (WFT) @ ATL – No one was really sure how the Football Team out of Washington would fare when Fitzmagic went down in week 1, and many in the fantasy community wrote them off, along with Heinicke. I’m here to tell you otherwise. Heinicke has been a solid replacement so far. In 2 games he has 43 fantasy points; accumulated from 548 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns, and 1 on the ground. These weren’t run of the mill defenses either that he played. The Giants passing defense isn’t terrible, and Buffalo’s is pretty stout. This week he gets a train wreck in the Falcons, and I expect him and Terry McLaurin to absolutely go off. He is a viable QB2, streaming option, and low priced DFS pick ($5,900 on DraftKings). Oh yeah, and Curtis Samuel just got activated off the IR on Friday, so he has another weapon to play with.
Sam Darnold (CAR) @ DAL – Any game that has an implied 50 point total or more you want pieces of as a Fantasy Manager. Dallas is only favored by 5 points, so this could end up being a shootout. The Cowboys have allowed 995 yards and 7 touchdowns through the air so far, that’s a defense you want the opposing quarterback in. Darnold has been very start-able too. He has 62 points in 3 games, and although he has only 3 touchdowns, I think that changes against the Cowboys. With CMC out, I think they’ll lean heavier in the passing game. We still don’t really know what Hubbard can do, and the Cowboys defense will key on him because the Panthers will try to use him a bit like CMC. If there was a time for Darnold to take control, throw the ball like mad, and score some touchdowns, this is the defense to do it against all things considered. He is very start worthy, even as a QB1, and is another cheaper option on DFS ($6,000 on DraftKings).
Aaron Rodgers (GB) VS PIT – I think it’s safe to say that A-Rodge is back in full form. After a miserable week 1 against the Saints, he’s managed to get back to his gun slinging ways. But wait, a must start against the almighty Steelers defense? Listen up. The Steelers aren’t what they used to be. Their defense has allowed 799 passing yards and 6 touchdowns so far this season, and it’s Aaron Rodgers you guys. I could care less about their team history as a fantastic defense year after year. That trend is done, over, bye bye. Rodgers is in a serious groove, 516 yards and 6 touchdowns that last 2 games to be exact, that's 45 points. Start him. ($6,800 on DraftKings)
RB:
Miles Sanders (PHI) VS KC – The Kansas City defense has definitely lacked this year, both in allowing passing and rushing yards. But I’m really focusing here on what Miles Sanders could potentially do against the Chiefs Sunday, who have allowed 481 rushing yards so far this season (2nd worst), and 7 rushing touchdowns (the worst). Yeah I know, Sanders only saw 6 total opportunities last week both on the ground and through the air against Dallas. Trust me, I’m still shaking my head about that, and if the Eagles want an actual chance to win this game at home, they need to use their running backs, and I fully expect them too. Sanders is a smash play for me, and reasonably priced in DFS ($6,400 on DraftKings).
Chris Carson (SEA) @ SF – Chris Carson has been quietly consistent this season so far, he has 202 yards and 3 touchdowns, and would have more had he not missed part of the game last week in Minnesota. He also ripped off a 30 yards touchdown run last week against the Vikings which looked great, and is averaging 14 points per game. I’m not saying 14 is a lot, but he’s been consistent, and I expect him to have a great game against the 49ers who are currently letting running backs average 4.7 yards per carry. If Russ can cook for a while against this Niners defense, I think Carson gets a bunch of carries, which could result in a big game if he averages 4.7 yards per touch. ($6,300 on DraftKings)
D’Andre Swift (DET) @ CHI – It’s odd throwing a running back in the must start category against the Bears, who have always been stout against the rush. But this year they sit in the middle of the pack. Did you see what Chubb and Hunt did to them last week? That should be enough as to why he’s a must start this week. So far Swift has carried the ball 33 times for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also catching the ball 19 times for 166 yards and a touchdown. He’s been unreal, that’s 58 points in 3 games. Look for Goff to dump it off a lot this game to Swift, and I know he comes in with that questionable tag on his name with a groin issue, but he has all season. (Note: if he does not play, his buddy Jamaal Williams is also a must start). Swift currently sits at $6,200 on DraftKings.
WR:
Tim Patrick (DEN) VS BAL – The Baltimore defense has given up the 5th most yards receiving so far this season, not the staple defense you’re used to from the Ravens. They travel to Denver to take on Teddy Bridgewater (who has been very consistent), and a wide receiver corps that is depleted. In steps Tim Patrick. With both Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler on the IR, it is up to Sutton and Patrick to catch the ball as far as wide receivers go. Don’t worry, I’ll get to Noah Fant. Patrick has averaged 13 points per game so far this season, and is due for a breakout. He already has 2 touchdowns so far, and if he can get past this struggling secondary from Baltimore, he could have a huge game. Tim Patrick sits at an unbelievably reasonable $4,900 on DraftKings for this game. Start him in all formats.
DJ Moore (CAR) @ DAL – It is finally happening you guys! The long awaited DJ Moore breakout season that we all knew he had in him. Moore has 22 catches on 31 targets in 3 games. ABSURD! Throw in 285 yards, with 6 catches of 20+ yards and you have a heck of a season so far even with only 1 touchdown. The touchdowns will come, and this Dallas defense might surrender 2 to him. Start him, start him, start him. CMC’s absence will only benefit Moore, and you saw that immediately last week when he went down. Moore is currently $6,600 on DraftKings.
Amari Cooper (DAL) VS CAR – We are going to stick to this game, the implied point total screams shootout as I stated before, and you want these pieces. Cooper has been quiet since week one, where he went nuclear with 13 catches for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns. I think that could happen again here. The Carolina defense has improved, but they got exposed last week by Brandin Cooks on how to move the ball. Cooper is due, even though Carolina has been the best in the league against receivers, I don’t know how they are going to slow down Cooper and all of these Dallas weapons. I think he’s a must start, he’s going to see targets, and I think Dallas comes up with a plan to get him involved early. ($6,000 on DraftKings)
TE:
Dawson Knox (BUF) VS HOU – Josh Allen is playing out of his gourd at the moment, and the receivers and Knox are benefiting big time. This week they invite Houston into town, after getting torched by DJ Moore. Allen is going to spread the ball to his weapons; Diggs, Sanders, Beasley, but I think Knox sneaks in a touchdown this week. He has a touchdown in each of the last 2 games, and I’m not sure the Texans are able to cancel that trend this week. He’s perfect for DFS too, sitting at a cheap $3,600 on DraftKings.
Sit ‘Em Down:
(Photo by Mark Zaleski, Associated Press via buffalonews.com)
QB:
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) @ NYJ – That’s right folks, I’m giving the Jets some love. Well, it’s not all their doing for Tannehill landing on my sit list this week, but it’s partially credited to them. The Jets have allowed the 10th least passing yards so far this season. There, that’s why. Now, here’s my main reason. Both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are ruled out. After that, Tannehill has extremely unreliable weapons, and I think Derrick Henry is going to get 35+ carries to ram it down the Jets’ throats. The best thing about that, it’s going to work, they’ll be fine, and most likely get a win on King Henry’s shoulders. Put Tannehill away until his wide receivers return.
Jacoby Brissett (MIA) VS IND – So here’s my problem, Brissett didn’t look completely terrible last week. He threw the ball 49 times, but for only 215 yards, and no touchdowns. But he did manage to run one into the end zone. That’s a ton of passes though with no pay dirt. It won’t be any better against the Colts. Their defense is 12th in the league when it comes to passing yards allowed, and if Brissett is dinking and dunking all game long, it just won’t be a good outcome for the Dolphins.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) @ GB – This might end up being a weekly appearance for Big Ben, especially after watching last week's performance. He has never looked this bad, and it is over for him. He goes into Green Bay who has a great passing defense, so you can bet they’re going to try to rely on the rookie Najee Harris to get the ball moving. Not to mention he may very well be without his deep threat Chase Claypool. It’s time to retire Big Ben in the fantasy football game, and real retirement may be coming sooner than later.
RB:
Damien Harris (NE) VS TB – Damien Harris was basically invisible last week against New Orleans, and I’m not sure he will become more visible this week against the Bucs. The Buccaneers rush defense is 4th best in the league when it comes to rushing yards allowed this far. If anything, this game is going to be driven by the passing game; Tom Brady is coming for blood, and the only way Mac Jones is going to be able to keep up is to fire that pigskin all over the field to his weapons. The only hope here is that Harris gets involved in the passing game, which I don’t see happening.
Saquon Barkley (NYG) @ NO – As I mentioned above, the Saints defense can make running backs disappear from the game, they’ve been spot on this season. They rank 3rd in rushing defense for yards allowed and that’s not changing this game. I know, Barkley looked great last game, and you love to see it, especially if you’re a shareholder. I know you can’t bench him, but you need to at least temper those expectations and have a backup plan or throw him in your flex. If he can be used in the passing game, like Harris above, you can salvage a rough game.
Ty’Son Williams (BAL) @ DEN – Last week Williams was in a bad game script for running backs and didn’t see many opportunities. He only rushed the ball 5 times for 22 yards, and had 0 catches on only 1 target. The guy is talented, no doubt, but he’s going up against in my opinion the best defense in the league. Denver is 2nd against the run when it comes to stats, and they just don’t let teams get passed the line of scrimmage. They’ve only allowed 178 total rushing yards in 3 games, that’s quite the feat. Teams try running, they fail, and it gets abandoned. I see a similar workload this week for Williams as he had last week.
WR:
Marquise Brown (BAL) @ DEN – I’m sticking with the Ravens this week in my sits. Truth here is, Brown could’ve had an incredible game last week but he had 2 major drops that both would have resulted in touchdowns. Since he didn’t succeed, his stat line was 3 for 53 and 0 touchdowns. Denver, as noted before, has a fantastic defense, and I think they’re going to give Lamar issues all game. If the Lions could give him fits last week, I can only imagine what the Broncos are going to do come Sunday in this passing game. Put Brown on the bench and wait a week to reactivate him.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) @ GB – See Big Ben. No but seriously, its ugly in Pittsburgh. Ben has no strength, no vision, and apparently he’s tripping over everything (the video was hilarious). JuJu is still nursing an injury, which doesn’t help at all, I think that if he gets hit right he may get pulled. Ben’s favorite target Dionte Johnson returns this week, and I think he is the only wide receiver worth playing in a tough match up against the Packers in Green Bay.
Allen Robinson (CHI) VS DET – The magician Matt Nagy just won’t let us know who the starting quarterback is this week for the Bears. Honestly, I’m not sure it matters all that much. Robinson has been under performing every game, and so far is the biggest bust of the year for fantasy football. After 3 games Robinson has 10 catches for 86 yards and 1 touchdown. Gross, especially for a wide receiver you took in an early round. Detroit gave Lamar fits last week, and yeah, they could’ve given up some big plays had Brown caught the ball. But whether its the Red Rocket Dalton, or the rookie Fields, it just doesn’t matter, and until he proves his worth again, you should be looking elsewhere.
Sleepers:
(Photo by Winslow Townson, USA Today Sports via pff.com)
Matt Ryan (ATL) VS WAS – Matty Ice has been just that this year, cold. He hasn’t scored more than 16 fantasy points in a game so far, but I think he has a great chance to change that Sunday. Washington’s defense has been porous this season, especially in the passing game. Josh Allen and the Bills lit them up last week, and I think you might just hop in a time machine and see the Matt Ryan of old this week. It’s bound to happen sooner or later with weapons like Ridley and Pitts, and why not now against the 5th worst passing defense in the league? Chalk it up, Matty Ice crushes on Sunday in a shootout game, and is sitting at $5,400 on DraftKings.
Josh Jacobs/Peyton Barber (LV) @ LAC – Did you see the game Peyton Barber had last week against the Dolphins while Jacobs sat out? Let me help; 23 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown, with 3 catches for 31 yards. Dude balled out. Jacobs is back this week, but if they limit his role, and I think they do because Barber’s performance may have hurt Jacob’s fantasy relevancy. You can’t bench a guy after that stat line. Either way, both are in play for me, and I think both could have great games against the Chargers, who have the worst rushing defense in the league. Jacobs is currently $6,100 on DraftKings, while Barber is at $5,100.
Jakobi Meyers (NE) VS TB – This is one of my favorite sleepers I’ve had, I just love this match up. Tampa’s passing defense has been putrid, 2nd worst in the league to be exact. You know for a fact that Tom Brady is coming in and is going to throw that ball all over the place to show New England he’s King, because he is. The absolute only way New England even dreams about keeping this close is by protecting Mac Attack and letting him throw the ball just as much. Enter Jakobi Meyers. Mac’s WR1 has a total of 29 targets after 3 games with 19 catches. I think he explodes this game. He’s in the position to have a gigantic game that no one saw coming. Lock him in at flex, sit back, and enjoy the ride. You also get him cheap, which is great, $5,200 on DraftKings.
Unknown Dart Throws (DFS):
(Photo by Alika Jenner / Getty Images via 4for4.com)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR) TEN – Both starting wideouts are going to be absent. They’re going to pound the rock with Henry, but they do need to throw it a bit. In waltz’s Westbrook-Ikhine to the starting role. Last week he filled in nicely for Brown. 4 catches on 4 targets for 53 and a touchdown. Look for him to be the featured WR for the Titans this week when Henry isn’t crushing the defense. Currently $3,200 on DraftKings.
Jaylen Waddle (WR) MIA – I don’t expect a game out of Brissett, but I would like to see a repeat of last week from Waddle. Last week the rookie was hyper targeted 13 times, caught the ball 12 of them and had 58 yards. That’s 17 points in a PPR league without a TD. This might happen again 2 weeks in a row, and with Miami most likely being in a negative game script I’m calling it. Currently $4,900 on DraftKings.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR) CLE – The Vikings struggle in the secondary, they haven’t quite figured it out just yet. You know they’re going to key on OBJ Sunday, and Landry is on the IR. Baker can’t look at OBJ the entire game, the Vikings will eventually eliminate him. So that leaves Donovan Peoples-Jones to pick up the slack. This could be another shootout in Minneapolis, and I think it will benefit DPJ and his target share. Currently $3,200 on DraftKings.
Noah Fant (TE) DEN – You thought I forgot about my foreshadow earlier didn’t you. This is simply becoming a beneficiary of the loss of Jeudy and Hamler. Only 3 targets last week against the Jets, who are great against tight ends, but before that he had 6 and 8. Expect that number to return, and I expect a touchdown out of him if I’m being honest with you. Currently $4,300 on DraftKings.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB) PHI – This game is going to be high flying. The Chiefs and Eagles face off, and the Eagles have a chance to do some serious damage with both of their running backs (Miles is a “Must Start”). Gainwell can catch the ball, and that’s where he is great. He is good with the run after the catch, and that is a solid recipe on Sunday. Currently $4,300 on DraftKings.
Royce Freeman (RB) CAR – Everyone knows that Chuba is getting the start in place of the absent CMC, so he isn’t a qualifier for an “Unknown Dart Throw.” Here’s the scoop, Hubbard and Freeman are going to share time, and it's going to come down to who is on the field at the right time for the better fantasy football game. You can do way worse than Freeman as a dart throw to mix up your lineup compared to everyone else. He’s worth a shot without question. Currently $4,700 on DraftKings.
AJ Dillon (RB) GB – I think the Packers absolutely destroy the Steelers on Sunday, and I think they pull Aaron Jones or start to limit his work come the 3rd quarter. If that is indeed the case, it’ll be the AJ Dillon show. This is a pretty hefty dart throw, solely because you need that blowout game script for it to happen. But, the way the Steelers are playing football on both sides, it could definitely happen. Currently $4,300 on DraftKings.
Mac Jones (QB) NE – Back to this game. I said before, if New England wants to compete this weekend, they need to throw the ball to keep up with Tom. Mac Jones could have a great game statistically against a bad Bucs defense. Not to mention him and Jakobi Meyers might be a sneaky stack. Currently $5,000 on DraftKings.
Good luck this week in all of your Fantasy Football Leagues, and in your DFS games! I’ll see you Thursday afternoon for the Week 5 TNF breakdown, and next weekend for the Week 5 weekend outlook.
Here’s to high floors and scores!
SKOL
- JD