JD’s Fantasy Football Insight (Week 12)
Did you all get your fill of turkey the last few days? Even though the first game of Thanksgiving was lackluster, it’s hard to say the entire day was a disappointment. The Raiders upset the ‘Boys, while Josh Allen and the Bills put the screws to the Saints in New Orleans.
We are so freaking close to the Fantasy Playoffs, and if you haven’t started preparing you better, or you could be caught with your pants down. This week will continue to shape how they look in your league, and I’m here as always to help you make the right decisions so you’re not participating in the Toilet Bowl.
We got work to do, so no more small talk today, lets get to work.
Must Starts:
Image Via: Phillip G Pavely USA Today sports
QB:
Jalen Hurts (PHI) @ NYG – Jalen Hurts continues to find himself on my “Must Start” list, and rightfully so. The guy is on a tear in Fantasy Football, and is currently the QB2 on the season.
The Eagles have turned it around, Hurts has a connection with rookie Devonta Smith, and that’s enough for me. The Giants are middle of the road against fantasy quarterbacks but I don’t think it matters because Hurts is still averaging damn near 60 yards on the ground per game.
Lock him in and enjoy. ($7,300 on DK)
Cam Newton (CAR) @ MIA – After this week and the next week after their BYE, depending on how Carolina does, these might be your last 2 weeks to play Newton. Their match ups get tough for fantasy quarterbacks. But this week, it’s full stream ahead for Cam. He takes on Miami, and they’re 27 th overall against fantasy pass throwers. If he can continue his connection with Moore, and use his legs to get extra yardage and score touchdowns this week could be fun. If you would’ve told me at the beginning of the season Cam Newton (Carolina QB) was going to be on my Week 12 “Must Start” list, I would’ve told you to go pound sand. But start Cam, and let him “Keep Pounding” for the Panthers. ($5,600 on DK)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) @ GB – Stafford is going to be looking for a bounce back game. Why not against the 14 th best defense against quarterbacks on the road? I know, it looks bad on paper for Stafford, but my Vikings exposed that Packers secondary last week. King is a liability, and I think he gets absolutely torched by Stafford; who if you forgot, used to play against the Packers twice a year for 12 seasons on a far worse team. You don’t think he knows their strengths and weaknesses? Calling my shot now, Stafford has a huge day against the cheese heads, and OBJ might even do ok. ($7,100 on DK)
RB:
Najee Harris (PIT) @ CIN – The RB3 on the season so far is the rookie for the Steelers that just keeps racking up points. Najee hasn’t had a point total in a game under 16.9 since week 1, and the Steelers had no clue what they were doing then. He is the ultimate bell cow, and Big Ben has struggled so it makes it even better for Najee owners. Cincy is bad against the run, 25 th in the league to be exact against it in fantasy, and Najee might have one of those games this week where he scored 30+. He’s an auto start at this point. ($8,200 on DK)
James Robinson (JAX) vs ATL – If there was ever a time this season for James Robinson to break out and show you why he was so good last season this is the game. He faces a putrid 28 th overall rushing defense in Atlanta against fantasy backs, and now Agnew is out of the picture. Robinson has been just fine, the RB15 on the season, but this week with his ability to make a play after catching the ball, I fully expect him to climb the ranks. I’ll throw this out there for you too, he has one hell of a nice Fantasy Football playoff schedule, and could be a league winning back. ($6,200 on DK)
Melvin Gordon/Javonte Williams (DEN) vs LAC – We all know the Broncos LOVE to run the ball. Why wouldn’t you? Gordon and Williams have been a great 2 headed backfield for them. Now they take on the Chargers, who hate defending the run but love defending the pass. They rank 24 th against the run in fantasy, and you could have great games from both backs. This might get your that preview too of a full on Javonte Williams future in Denver, its coming sooner or later, and week 12 might just be it. If I lean one side, its’ Williams, just for that fact, but there is now way I’m throwing out Gordon, because he has a nose for the end zone.
(Gordon - $5,300 on DK) (Williams - $5,200 on DK)
WR:
Deebo Samuel (SF) vs MIN – Now they are getting Deebo involved in the run game. It’s not even fair at this point if you play against the current WR3 on the year. Deebo is flourishing, and hasn’t scored under 15 fantasy points since week 3. The Vikes have a rough secondary, and have been getting torched all season. I’m not sure there is an outcome in this game where Deebo doesn’t score a fantastic amount of points. If he continues this production consistently, he will get out of that WR3 spot fast and end up WR2 for fantasy football.
($7,900 on DK)
Mike Evans (TB) @ IND – Yeah, the Colts are red hot right now, but Tom Brady is basically always red hot. If the Bucs want to march into Indy and tie up the Colts this week, Brady is going to have to do his thing. The Colts still rank 30 th against fantasy wide receivers, and they will give up big plays. So between Evans in Godwin based on that analysis, I’ll take Evans. As the WR8 on the year, Evans is always a threat, not only in the downfield big play, but inside
the 20. ($7,200 on DK)
DJ Moore (CAR) @ MIA – Well if Cam is going to be a must start this week, it only makes sense to put his best pass catcher in there with him. Even in a rough season, Moore is the WR14, and I think this game might be one of those boom games. Miami is AWFUL, really really awful. They’re 2 nd to last against fantasy wide outs. The last 3 games Moore hasn’t seen more than 7 targets, at the beginning of the season he was seeing 11, 12 a game, but I think that comes back in this game. ($6,200 on DK)
Sit ‘Em Down:
Image via Sam Greenwood - Getty Images
QB:
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) @ NE – Boy has it been a quick downhill spiral for the Titans this season. First they lose Derrick Henry, then Julio Jones goes on IR, and now as of yesterday A.J. Brown gets put on IR. Tannehill goes into New England today as well, where the defense has been crushing quarterbacks. This might be the end of Tannehill for the season, and it’s time to retire him to the bench on your fantasy squad.
Daniel Jones (NYG) vs PHI – The Philly defense is starting to click, the Giants suck, and Daniel Jones will never be a successful NFL quarterback. If you’re a G-Men fan, you have to wonder what they do in the upcoming draft. Jason Garrett is gone, but I don’t think it matters.
The Giants haven’t been able to do anything with any of their weapons this season on the outside. If anyone is going to have a good game today against the Eagles, it is going to be Saquon Barkley, which doesn’t bode well for Daniel Jones unless all he does is dump off screens.
Tyrod Taylor (HOU) vs NYJ – Taylor came out and had a very formidable fantasy performance last week against the Titans (who continue to fall apart). This week he gets a better defense against the pass in the Jets, and I don’t think he has a good game. The only reason why Taylor had 19 points last week was because he had 2 rushing touchdowns, otherwise he would’ve only scored 7 points, YUCK. The Texans are a mess on offense, and the only player I’m willing to even think about touching is Brandin Cooks.
RB:
Myles Gaskin (MIA) vs CAR – Remember how I said last week Gaskin was a “Must Start” because this season he has literally been the most inconsistently consistent back in the league? Well, it held true. Last week was his good week, and now this week will be his bad week. He has done this every other I’m going to show up and play week all season. Carolina also has the 2 nd best rushing defense in the league against fantasy backs, so it’s no surprise he ends up on this list today.
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) @ NE – One of the three backs that have stepped in for the injured Henry on the season, and probably the best of the three. Though, that’s not saying a whole lot for fantasy. Foreman hasn’t scored over 9 points since he took over in week 9, and this week it doesn’t look to promising either. New England is a tough place to play, and with an injury ridden team it is even harder. Throw in 2 other backs in the rotation, and if you need to start Foreman in an emergency situation, you better hope he falls into the end zone.
Tevin Coleman (NYJ) @ HOU – Even if Coleman has a favorable match up in Houston today, I think it is going to be the Ty Johnson show. They’ll split carries for sure, but I just don’t think Coleman has any juice left in that tank of his. The Jets SHOULD ride their young and explosive back that shows potential, but that doesn’t mean they will. If you must start Coleman due to injury or whatever mishap you have on your team, please don’t get your hopes up. You’ll just be unbelievably disappointed.
WR:
Mike Williams (LAC) @ DEN – This game could very well just end up being a ground and pound game for both teams. Denver’s defense ranks 8 th against fantasy pass catchers, and Austin Ekeler has been on a tear so the Chargers might want to continue to ride that. Mike Williams did have a nice game last week against a poor Pittsburgh defense, but the last four games before that he didn’t score over 7 points per. Mix in the fact that as of late Keenan Allen has looked really good, and I worry about big Mike Williams’ production today.
Chase Claypool (PIT) @ CIN – Here’s another high profile player you drafted early in drafts and to be great, and yet, kind of a let down as of now. Claypool showed up for the first time since week 5 with a relevant fantasy performance. Cincy does well against the pass catchers, 7 th in the league. Big Ben has looked rough, except for last week; and with their game plan to feed Najee the ball and then throw to Dionte Johnson when not running, it hasn’t looked great for Claypool owners. I think you could sit Claypool this week and find a stronger option, because if he doesn’t find the end zone, you will be in trouble.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs LAC – Going back to this game again, and like I said, it should be a ground and pound showdown. Between Ekeler, Gordon, and Williams, you could see the majority of fantasy points come from those guys today. Sutton hasn’t had a fantasy relevant game since week 6 really, where he scored 23 points. Since then, it has looked like this – 11 (ok), 6, 3, 4. Not great. Jeudy has been better, not much better, but better. I just think there is better options than Sutton who’s team is going to focus on the run, and LA’s defense will let them run.
Sleepers:
Image via Darren Yamashita USA TODAY Sports
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs MIN – The handsome one has been just fine the last 4 weeks, and against decent to tough defenses against the fantasy quarterback. If he can score almost 20 points on the Cardinals, imagine what he could do today against my Vikings. They sure love giving up the deep ball, and don’t be surprised to see Deebo go off today. Jimmy G has been serviceable, and as much as I’m personally looking forward to the Trey Lance era in San Fran, you have to like what you see so far from JG. ($5,700 on DK)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) vs ATL – I love this match up today for Lawrence who takes on the terrible 26 th overall defense in Atlanta against QB’s. As long as Urban Meyer lets him get the ball to his pass catchers, and James Robinson doesn’t explode like he very well could, Lawrence has the chance to end the week as a top 10 QB for fantasy. The last 4 weeks have been butt ugly, but if they want to progress as a team, they need to find a way to let their number 1 draft pick shine, and I think today he is able to make some plays. ($5,400 on DK)
Miles Sanders (PHI) @NYG – Not a great comeback for Sanders last week against New Orleans, but that is expected against their rush defense. He also didn’t need to be used honestly with how Hurts took over. This week I think he bounces back fully since the injury. The Giants as we well know are god awful, and if Sanders can average 5.8 ypc against the Saints, he should be able to gouge the Giants. I think they get up early, and that mean milking the clock with Sanders. ($5,100 on DK)
David Johnson (HOU) vs NYJ – I can’t believe I’m doing this, but hell, here we are. It’s week 12 and I think David Johnson could be in store for his best game of the season. If you’re in a bind at running back, and you just need to score points, DJ is your man. The Jets have the worst rushing defense in the league, the Texans ditched one back from their RB room, and Johnson is involved in the passing game. It probably won’t be pretty, in fact, I promise it won’t be, but you are looking at an almost guarantee of 6-7 for a floor. If Johnson can make something happen after he catches the ball, the ceiling looks much better. He’s a plug and pray. ($4,500 on DK)
Adam Thielen (MIN) @ SF – With all the excitement surrounding Justin Jefferson and how great he has been, people have kind of forgotten about the Minnesota native Thielen. The match up isn’t positive, the Niners have a fantastic defense against pass catchers. But in situations like this where they have a strong defense and Jefferson is in the spotlight, that’s when Thielen shines. He is the WR10 on the year, while Jefferson is the WR6, and Thielen who was supposed to see touchdown regression, has 8 on the year. In touch match ups, Thielen’s point total is as follows: 30.2, 29.8, 11.5, and 22.2. ($6,700 on DK)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs MIN – Once in the Shanahan dog house, now set free. Aiyuk started off very slow this season, but as of late has really come on with the success of Jimmy G. Besides week 10 against the Rams, Aiyuk has scored 10+ points the last 4 weeks with a top score of 21.5. As stated, the Vikings have a rough secondary, and there is opportunity today for both Samuel and Aiyuk to have great fantasy starts. I also think this game is high scoring, and that means more chances for fantasy points from players. ($5,300 on DK)
Noah Fant (DEN) @ LAC – I may have stated earlier this should be a run heavy game for both teams, but if there is one pass catcher from the Broncos I have some faith in scoring today it’s Fant. The Chargers are 29 th against fantasy tight ends, and Fant is averaging about 5 targets a game. If they key on the run in the red zone, you may see Fant get a score, or two. ($4,600 on DK)
Unknown Dart Throws:
Image via Brian Rothmuller Getty Images
Carson Wentz (IND) vs TB – You know that the Bucs are going to do everything in their power to stop Jonathan Taylor, who is making an incredibly strong case for MVP right now. That means, its going to be up to Wentz step up his play and move the balla. TB is the 12 th best defense against fantasy quarterbacks, which has holes that Wentz could expose, but that means he has to yet again make a play. The last 3 games Wentz hasn’t had to do much because of Taylor, but he is going to have to today, and his best option is to feed his rising start receiver Michael Pittman. ($5,800 on DK)
Ty Johnson (NYJ) @ HOU – The match up is there, their star rookie RB is hurt, so its all systems go for Ty Johnson today. The 2 year running back has the opportunity to show Jets coaches and fans that he can make it happen. He’s explosive, which is helpful, because his backup today Coleman is not. Wilson is back at the helm for the Jets, and if he continues to struggle, they’ll lean on the run game some more against a middle of the road Houston defense. You can do far worse for a cheap running back in DFS today. ($4,300 on DK)
Rex Burhead (HOU) vs NYJ – Sexy Rexy is back baby! Well, maybe. He will be splitting carries with David Johnson today for Houston, which means he will have some opportunity against a bad Jets rushing defense. It’s tough to say how much he will be utilized, but I bet he gets used more than you think he will. Johnson isn’t a spring chicken anymore, and even though I think DJ has a good game, he will need some relief. Enter Rex Burkhead. ($4,200 on DK)
Elijah Moore (NYJ) @ HOU – It’s honestly hard to call Moore an “Unknown Dart Throw,” but with his price on DK it works. Houston is in the bottom half of defenses against receivers, and right now Moore is just working it. The last 4 games is as follows – 29.6, 15.4, 27.4, and 15.1. He’s been consistent, and booming. The only thing that makes me nervous is the return of Wilson, who struggled this season early on. So have your fingers crossed that he got better. This is without question a boom or bust week for Moore. ($5,600 on DK)
Laviska Shenault (JAX) vs ATL – I hope Urban Meyer finally comes to his senses to see what he has in Shenault. The kid is electric, and can play at any spot in the formation. With Agnew gone on injury, you have to think that the Jaguars will get Shenault more involved. He is also a boom or bust pick, but I’m seriously leaning boom today for him, especially against a porous Atlanta defense. Even if he doesn’t boom completely, he is cheap enough you can buy up on other positions in DFS. ($4,400 on DK)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) @ IND – Gronk returned from injury last week against the Giants, and put up a solid 13.1 points. Now that he has had another full week to practice and get back to his normal self, I think he has the possibility to have a gigantic game that Gronk can do. The Colts are 30 th against fantasy tight ends which also helps his case, and we may just be in for multiple “Gronk Spikes” this afternoon. ($4,400 on DK) Good luck this afternoon everyone, I think we are in for some pretty exciting match ups and some big boom fantasy players today. Here’s hoping that they are on your squad, and not on the one you’re facing.
Here’s to high floors and scores!
SKOL
- JD