Bet the Under Until Further Notice
Baseball season is three weeks in and betting the under is hitting at 60 percent clip. Obviously that is flat out ridiculous so everyone reading this should place some bets right now.
I first heard about the trend a week ago, and decided to give it a shot. I randomly picked three games to place an under bet, safe to say I went up 3 units pretty quickly.
A few reasons this trend is happening:
Home runs are down- Baseball has fully bought into the three true outcomes of strikeout, walk, or dinger. With players aiming for power over average, and home runs running at a premium, which explains why there is a 5 percent dip in runs. But why are home runs down?
The baseball is most likely deadened: Many baseball writers, including Jeff Passan, have speculated that Manfred & Friends un-juiced the ball. It wouldn’t be the first time they changed the ball and it won’t be the last. Also, I personally think that deadening the ball is good for the sport. Mashing taters is fun, but I would like to see more run manufacturing take place.
Baseballs are being kept in a humidor- Yeah, so the weird and stupid expensive box your dad puts cigars in is being used to store baseballs now. This means that all baseballs will all be kept under the same conditions in all 30 ballparks until first pitch. Why does this matter? It keeps the baseball less dry, and dry baseballs come off the bat harder. The MLB did this to create more parity within ballparks, but it's also a likely culprit for lower homers.
It’s April- It’s colder in april. I mean, duh, cooler temps means the ball doesn’t go as far. It’s a tale as old as time. We could be seeing this trend dip the other way in July, but for now just bet the under.